Transcript Slide 1

Overview: Global and Pakistan’s
Water Resources and Challenges
by
Ashfaq Mahmood
(Retd Federal Secretary)
18 December 2014 LEAD Cohort 18
1
Organization of Presentation
Global Water Resources
Pakistan’s Water Resources
2
Total volume of Water on Earth is about 1.4 billion Km3 (1.135
billion MAF)
Freshwater is around 35 million Km3, or about 2.5% of the
total volume. (28.375 million MAF)
About 24 million Km3 (27 million MAF) or 70 percent of fresh
water is in the form of ice and snow and about 30% is ground
water.
Freshwater lakes and rivers contain an estimated 0.105 million
Km3 or around 0.3 %. (0.105million Km3 comprises of: Lakes:
67.5%, Soil Moisture 12%, Atmosphere 9.5%, wet land 8.5%,
Rivers 1.5%,Vegetation: 1%)
The total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems and humans
is about 0.2 million Km3 of water - less than 1 percent of all
freshwater resources.
Water scarcity already affects more than 40 percent of the
people on our planet. By 2025, 1.8 billion people and 2/3rd of
the world’s population under water stress
Phenomenon of Climate Change
Green House Gasses Trap Heat
(CO2,CH4,N2O and Fluorinated Gasses)
Global Warming due to GHG
Climate Change
Major changes in temperature (Global warming) , precipitation,
or wind patterns
Effects of Climate Change
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Increase in air temperature:
i. 1906—2005 by 0.74 C (0.44 C occurring during 1980—2005)
ii. Additional 4 C by 2050
iii. 1—7 C by 2070
Increase in sea level:
i. 3—16 cm by 2030
ii. 7—50 cm by 2070
Estimated 8.4---10% reduction in precipitation in next 50 Years (2050)
Concentration of rains and snow/glacier melt flows in summer.
Lesser non-monsoon flows and prolonged dry spells (droughts)
affecting agriculture.
Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods in
next few Decades. Shortages in the long run.
Greater Frequency of floods .
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Effects of Climate Change
(Contd)
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More
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glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF),
Cyclones,
El Ninos,
Heat Waves,
Tornados,
Snow Avalanches,
Dust Storms due to soil erosions,
Tsunamis,
Effects on coastal systems,
Ecosystems (coral reef communities, mangroves, wetland, fish etc) ,
Land slides, etc
Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to $100 billion
per year between 2020—2050
Some Impacts of Climate Change on Life and
Society

Human Life (Affect Poorest of the Poor )
◦ Drinking, sanitation, food/agriculture, health, Industry, Mining
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Natural Ecology
◦ Birds, plants, trees, animals, fish, microorganisms, soil and people
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Economy
◦ GDP, Industries, Agriculture, Exports, Labour employment,
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Hydro Power– lesser capacity , increased variability, increased
cost
Poverty, food Insecurity, and electricity prices, urban
migration, deterioration of rural life and environments.
World Water Challenges
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Pressures on Water
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Current Situation:
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Rapid Urbanization
Climate Change
Food Security
Demands of sectors other than Domestic and Agriculture sectors.
Pollution, Quality, Environments, Eco-systems
85% of the world population lives in the driest half of the planet.
Clean drinking Water not accessible by 780 million people almost 2.5 billion without adequate
sanitation.
Agriculture accounts for ~70 to 90 % of global freshwater withdrawals
2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater, which includes approximately 300
transboundary aquifer systems.
Six to eight million people die annually from the disasters and water-related diseases.
Future Outlook
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Declining per capita availability due to population growth.
Predicted increase in food demand of 70% by 2050.
Effects of Climate Change—More intense floods, shortages, glacier melt
Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to
$100 billion per year between 2020—2050
Water Resources (Pakistan)
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Major Rivers in Pakistan and India
Occupied-Disputed
Territory
12
Indus Basin Replacement Works
R-Q
C-J
T-P
Q-B
T-S
M-R
B-S II
S-M
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COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTAN
IN KPK
C H IT R A L R .
KABUL R.
KONAR
A F G H A N IS T A N
R.
KABUL
K A IT U R .
KURRAM R.
SW AT R.
D U R A N D L IN E
JALALABAD
GARDEZ
W ARSAK
DAM
TOCHI R.
B
A
R
A
GOMAL R.
R
GOM AL
.
PESHAW AR
ATTOCK
KOHAT
BANNU
TARBELA
DAM
IS A K H E L
P A K IS T A N
KULACHI
LEGEND
IN D U S R .
D U R A N D L IN E
R IV E R
D E R A IS M A IL K H A N
C IT Y
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Sources of Surface Water
1.
Glacier and Snow Melt
About 80 %of Water is received in Indus
System through glacier & snow melt.
2.
Rainfall
Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid
countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall
less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it
less than 125 mm.
3. Seasonal Availability
Availability Kharif: 82%, Rabi: 18%
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AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS
(Post Tarbela 1976-2008)
(Canal Diversion=104 MAF)
M AF
River
*Average Maximum Minimum
Inflow
Kharif
Rabi
Annual
Water
Requirement as
per 1991 Accord
141.53
79.85
115.37
(1991 - 92) (2001- 02)
77.34
+ 1.8
16.56
(2000 01)
172.1
97.13
(1991- 92) (2001- 02)
37.01
+ 1.2
35.14
25.14
(1990 - 91)
140.68
114.35
+ 3.0
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Effects of Climate Change (Pakistan)
1. Glacier melt resulting in more water in
next 30-50 years followed by severe
reduction.
2. Higher degree of variability of water
flows
3. More extreme events like droughts,
floods, cloud burst, cyclones, sea water
rise, salt intrusion, avalanches etc.
4. Change in pattern of monsoon systems--shift towards east.
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Water Use and Demand
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WATER USE PATTERN
Industrial
2%
Irrigation
92%
2005
Drinking and
Sinitation
6%
Industrial
5%
Domestic
8%
Projected
87%
2030
20
Average Water Resource Availability and Use
Conveyance Losses 46.6
MAF (44.8%)
(Canal & Distributaries 22 MAF
(21%)
& Watercourses 24.6 MAF
(30%))
CANAL DIVERSIONS
104 MAF
Surface Water Avail 141 MAF
• Down Stream Kotri 31
MAF
• River Basin Losses 04-06
MAF
CANAL WATER
AVAILABLE AT FARM
HEAD 57.4 MAF
Ground Water 50.3 MAF
NET WATER
AVAILABILITY AT FARM
HEAD 107.7 MAF
Field Losses 27 MAF (25%)
NET WATER AVAILABILITY
FOR CROP CONSUMPTIVE
USE 80.8 MAF
Rainfall Contribution: Depends !
Overall efficiency of use of surface
water=.79*.7*.75= 41.5 %. Achievable 55%
Water requirement: 101.7 MAF
Short fall =101.7-80.8=20.9
MAF
If average rainfall= 13.4 MAF,
Deficit= 7.5 MAF
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Land Utilization
Million Hectares
Total Land Area
79.61
Total Area reported
57.76
Forest Area
Total Cultivable Area
Cultivated Area
Not cultivated but otherwise fit
Irrigated Area
3.8-4.26
33.77
22.10-24.64
8-11
18.04-18.67
Canal Irrigated Area
6.81
Canal and Tubewells
7.4
Wells and Tubewells
3.65
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan (2011-12)
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Water Requirements and Availability at Farmgate (Estimates)
Sr.
No.
SECTOR
Year
2004
Year
All Figures in
2025 MAF
Improved yields and Business as
efficiencies*
usual
1
2
3
Agriculture
Water use above RIM stations
Drinking and Sanitation
111.35
3.0
8.2
120
6.00
12.20
135
6.00
12.20
4
Industrial
Sub-Total
3.0
125.55
3.80
142
3.80
157
Availability (including local
water harvested/pumping
besides main river water and
ground water for agriculture)
Water shortage
113
113
113
12
29
44
Estimated Escapages below
Kotri
7.5**
7.5**
7.5**
6
7
*Assuming 50% increase in crop yields and 22% increase in efficiency
**Tentative figure in the Water Accord was 10 MAF. As per Studies Average
figure of 7.5 MAF is adopted.
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ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRI
HYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH
100
91.86
81.49
80.60
69.08
62.81
60
54.51
53.29
52.86
45.90
45.45
42.34
40
35.23
33.79
30.39 29.81
29.55
29.89 MAF
(1976.77-2013.14)
29.10
26.90
20.74
20.10
20.17
17.53 17.22
20
24.53
21.72
18.28
15.82
10.97
9.68
8.84
14.24
6.01
5.82
4.06
0.741.922.15
0.29
2013.14
2012.13
2011.12
2010.11
2009.10
2008.09
2007.08
2006.07
2005.06
2004.05
2003.04
2002.03
2001.02
2000.01
1999.00
1998.99
1997.98
1996.97
1995.96
1994.95
1993.94
1992.93
1991.92
1990.91
1989.90
1988.89
1987.88
1986.87
1985.86
1984.85
1983.84
1982.83
1981.82
1980.81
1979.80
1978.79
1977.78
0
1976.77
Annual Discharge (MAF)
80
Years
Note: Based on data supplied by I&P Deptt: Govt. of Sindh
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Water Storage Dams
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Current Live Storage Capacity (MAF)
RESERVOIR
ORIGINAL
LIVE
STORAGE
LIVE
STORAGE
2004
LIVE
STORAGE
2014
TARBELLA
9.68 (1976)
7.16
6.45
MANGLA
5.34 (1967)
4.53
6.63—7.39
CHASHMA
0.87 (1971)
0.44
0.28
TOTAL
15.89
12.13
14.12
Loss due to higher operating levels of Tarbela =
0.511 MAF
Rate of loss at Tarbela
=
103,000 Acre Feet per Year
Rate of loss at Mangla
=
32,000 Acre Feet per Year
Rate of loss at Chashma
=
22,000 Acre Feet per Year
1% of original capacity lost per year.
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AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY
OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS
Sr.
River Basin
No.
Average
Annual flow
(MAF)
No. of
Dams
Storage
Capacity
(MAF)
% age
Storage
1
Colorado
12
3
59.62
497
2
Nile
38
1
132
475
3
Sutlej Bias
India (Total)
32
750
5
4,636
11.32
245
35
33
4
Yellow River
345
7
68.95
20
5
Columbia
179
3
34
19
6
Indus &
others Rivers
145
3
13.64
13
7
Yangtze
870
1
32
4
8
World
20,000
-
8,000
40
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Hydro Power
Potential : Over 60000 MW (Storage and Run
of River)
 Installed : 6481 MW
 Cost of Generation: 2-6 cents/KWh against
12-17 cents /KWh for thermal generation
 Current Hydro-Thermal Mix : 30:70

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Productivity & Efficiency of Use
of Water
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Water Productivity
1.5
Water productivity for wheat
Kilograms per cubic
meter of transpiration
1
0.5
0
California
Bhakra,India
Punjab,
Pakistan
Drinking Water
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Water Quality Status-Pakistan
85% of samples tested were unfit for human
consumption Protection Agency, in14 districts of
Punjab (EPA)
 Surface water sources ( lakes & rivers) have massively
been polluted (Tanneries, Chemical Wastes, Domestic
Garbage Dump)
 75% of water in Islamabad and 87% in Rawalpindi are
unsafe (WB-CWRAS Paper 8, 2005).
 An excess of arsenic and fluoride concentrations
 In Sindh almost 95% of shallow groundwater supplies
are bacteriologically contaminated (Pak-SECA 2006).
 Health Cost and Lost Earning on account of drinking
water, sanitation, hygiene= Rs112 billion/ annum (Over
Rs 300 million/Day)

Contamination Intrusion Routes
Distribution Network
Groundwater Arsenic Contamination
Mr. Azad, chronic arsenic patient-Bangladesh
Arsenic Patient ( 1100 ppb) from NawabshahPakistan
Ground Water
Over Mining
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Summary of
Issues and Challenges
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Major Water Resource Issues and Challenges
(Pakistan)
14.
Declining Water Availability per capita
Future Water Availability to Decline due to Climate Change
More Floods, Droughts, variability of Flows on the Cards
Ground Water Exploitation Need to be Regulated.
Water Shortage Agri: 7.5 MAF (present), 26 MAF (2025)
More Inter-sectoral Competition for Water
Low Productivity and Efficiency of Transmission and Use
Cultivable land available but not yet cultivated.
More Seasonal Variability: Availability Kharif: 85%, Rabi: 15%
New Storages – Victim of Lack of Consensus
Under Utilization of Hydro Generation Potential
Drinking Water : Poor Quality, Inadequate Quantity,
Infrastructure, neglect, apathy
Sanitation ???
Trans-boundary water threats
15.
Financing ???
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
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Possible Response to Issues and
Challenges
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Population Control
Prepare for Climate Change. More Dams– Seasonal and Yearly Carry Over
Invest in rehabilitation of infrastructure and regular maintenance.
Use modern technology and practices to improve productivity , efficiency,
watershed management conservation, harvesting and re-use
Special Attention to Drinking Water and Sanitation
Protect Trans-boundary Water
Use Media to educate masses
Financing
Price Water properly
Regulators for monitoring quality, curbing wastages, ground water
extraction and proper service to ordinary users.
Improve Governance and build Human Resources
Build Knowledge, Collect Knowledge, Disseminate Knowledge
Water has to be on the centre stage
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THANK YOU
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