Transcript Exceedances of Nitrogen Critical Loads in Europe

Application of critical loads in European
air pollution abatement strategies
T. Spranger
German Federal Environmental Agency
and many other Europeans…!
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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1. Organisation
2. Methods
3. Results
a. Critical Loads
b. Critical Load Exceedances
4. Future
5. Summary
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Convention on Long-range Transboundary
Air Pollution (CLRTAP)
• Framework Convention (1979) and 8
specific Protocols
• science and effects-based: >>1000 experts
and scientists networked
• Scientific support from 3 core activities
• atmospheric measurements and modelling
• effects
• integrated assessment
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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CLRTAP approaches
• BAT: Technical emission standards
• Effects-based approach:
Emission abatement policy driven by
critical load exceedances
• Integrated assessment modelling:
Least-cost emission abatement
optimization
→ National Emission Ceilings per pollutant
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Use of CLs in Integrated
Assessment Models
National CL
data/maps
European CL
data/maps
Energy/
agriculture
projections
compare
European deposition
data/maps
European CL
exceedance data/maps
European emission
data/maps
Integrated
Assessment Models
Optimized emission
reduction scenarios
Emission abatement
techniques & costs
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
Nat´l Emission
Ceilings
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Executive Body
Working Group on
Effects
ICP
Forests
Task Force
EMEP
Steering Body
Programme
Coordinating
Centre
ICP
Integrated Monitoring
Task Force
Task Force
Materials
Coordination
Center
for Effects
Chemical
Coordinating
Centre
Network of Experts
on Benefits and
Economic Instruments
Main Research
Centre
Meteorological
Synthesizing
Centre - West
Expert Group
on Techno-economic Issues
Meteorological
Synthesizing
Centre - East
Task Force
on Heavy Metals
Task Force
on Integrated
Assessment Modelling
Expert Group
on Particulate Matter
ICP
Vegetation
Task Force
Programme
Centre
ICP
Waters
Task Force
Expert Group
on Ammonia Abatement
Task Force
on POPs
ICP
Task Force
Working Group on
Strategies&Review
Task Force
on Measurement
and Modelling
Programme
Centre
ICP
Modelling and Mapping
Task Force
on Emission Inventories
and Projections
Implementation Committee
Programme
Centre
Task Force on
Health
WHO
Centre
for Integrated
Assessment Modelling
Bonn
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
Task Force
on Hemispheric Transport
of Air Pollution
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Focus of ICP M&M
• Critical Loads:
•
•
•
•
– acidification
– eutrophication
– Cd, Pb, Hg effects
Dynamic models  Target Loads
Nitrogen effects modeling
Links to climate change and biodiversity
Harmonization of data & methods
– Manual @www.icpmapping.org
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Effects thresholds
for sustainable protection from air pollution
should:
1. reflect cause-effect relations;
scientifically founded
2. be simple to apply in IAMs
3. be regionally variable (ecosystem specific)
4. be constant in time
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Critical Load
“the highest deposition of (…) below which
harmful effects in ecosystem structure and function
do not occur
according to present knowledge”
•
•
•
•
•
= long-term ecosystem capacity
eutrophication, acidification, heavy metal effects
terrestrial and (non-marine) aquatic ecosystems
SMB and empirical
used as sustainability indicators for policy guidance
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Eutrophication: CLnut(N)
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Acification: CLmax(S)
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Biases and uncertainties
•
•
•
•
Method harmonization (Manual) and control
Cross-border comparisons
Analysis of NFC data submissions by CCE
But in the end, it is only useful to analyze b.&u. in
an Integrated Assessment framework:
• RAINS Review (Grennfelt et al. 2004):
– model design, uncertainties, abatement technologies &
costs, communication
– general conclusion: “RAINS is a reliable and
scientifically defendable tool for policy advice”
– various recommendations
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Main results of CLRTAP negotiations
• National Emission Ceilings (2010) for European
countries
• Emission reductions 1990 - 2010:
SO2 -60%; NOx -40%; NH3 -17%
• Eutrophication >> Acidification
• Exceedances (N and Ac) dominated by ammonia
emissions from intensive animal husbandry
• Additional (health) effect from S and N
emissions: Secondary particles
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Exceedance eutrophication
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Exceedance acidification
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Future I
• Three protocols being reviewed
• Focus on particulate matter, nitrogen,
hemispheric transport, ships, renewables,
non-technical measures
• parallel process with European Community
(using CLRTAP data and methods concerning
effects)
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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SO2 emissions by sector
EU-15 [kt]
No further climate measures
With climate measures
6000
6000
5000
5000
4000
x----------------
4000
3000
3000
2000
2000
1000
1000
0
2000
Power generation
2005
2010
Industry
2015
2020
Households
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
0
2000
Transport
x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt
2005
2010
2015
Process emissions
2020
"Climate bonus"
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SO2 emissions by sector
New EU Member States [kt]
No further climate measures
With climate measures
3000
3000
x----------------
x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
2000
Power generation
2005
2010
Industry
2015
2020
Households
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
0
2000
Transport
2005
2010
2015
Process emissions
2020
"Climate bonus"
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NOx emissions by sector
EU-15 [kt]
No further climate measures
With climate measures
10000
10000
8000
8000
x---------------
6000
x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
0
2000
Power generation
2005
Industry
2010
2015
2020
Households
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
0
2000
Transport
2005
2010
2015
Process emissions
2020
"Climate bonus"
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NOx emissions by sector
New EU Member States [kt]
No further climate measures
x----------------
1800
With climate measures
1800
1500
1500
1200
1200
900
900
600
600
300
300
0
2000
Power generation
2005
2010
Industry
2015
2020
Households
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
0
2000
Transport
x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 kt
2005
2010
2015
Process emissions
2020
"Climate bonus"
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Emissions from shipping
[% of land-based EU-25 emissions]
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2010
NOx
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
2020
SO2
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NH3 emissions
EU-15 [kt]
3500
x--------------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2005
Cattle
2010
Other animals
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
Industry
2015
2020
Fuel combustion
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NH3 emissions
New Member States [kt]
x--------------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2005
Cattle
2010
Other animals
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
Industry
2015
2020
Fuel combustion
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Future II
• Coupled models:
– Nr & other air pollutant effects,
– climate change,
– biodiversity
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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The Netherlands ±1960
The Netherlands 2000
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Use of biogeochemistry-biodiversity
models for the Convention
• Great potential
• Current application: predict biodiversity
impacts of emission scenarios
• Future application should be: define
biodiversity-based critical/target loads
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Use of critical loads outside the
Convention
•
•
•
•
•
National legislation
EU CAFE
Convention on Biodiversity
EU Habitat Directive
…
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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But nitrogen is more than LRTAP:
The nitrogen cascade
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Global Nr fluxes
1890
ca.
1850
J. Galloway et al. 2002
today
1990
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Integrated approach to Nitrogen pollution?
Water Directive
FCCC
Nitrate Directive
Aquatic NO3
Soil NO 3
Climate change
N2O
Manure
Effects on ecosystems
o.a. decrease in
biodiversity
NH3
N2
Fertilizer
industry
NH4NO3
C
HNO3
Effects on materials
and cultural heritage
NOx
Effects on human and
animal health
Combustion
Directives
on emission
control
CO2, CH4,
SF6, HFK,
PFK, ..
SO2, (NH4)2SO4
CLRTAP
NEC Dir.
CBD
AQ Directive
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Conclusions (also for U.S.)
• Environmental and health risks due to air pollution
in parts of N America similar to Europe
– include ammonia!
• Effects-based emission abatement policy has
been cost-effective and successful in Europe,
but CLs are still widely exceeded
– Eutrophication > Acidification
– will be increasingly linked to biodiversity and climate
change policies and targets
• Multi-media and multi-effect research and policy
development needed to
– reduce uncertainties
– link & optimize management and abatement strategies
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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More information
UNECE Convention
www.unece.org/env/lrtap
EMEP
www.emep.int
WG on Effects
www.unece.org/env/wge
ICP M&M
www.icpmapping.org
RAINS IAM @ IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/
EU CAFE ec.europa.eu/comm/environment/air/cafe/
Intern´l Nitrogen Initiative www.initrogen.org
Thank you for your attention!
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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The Protocols
• Implementation of and compliance with
Protocols in force
•
•
•
•
•
•
1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols
1988 NOx Protocol
1991 VOC Protocol
1998 Heavy Metals Protocol
1998 POP Protocol
1999 Gothenburg Protocol
– multi-pollutant multi-effect
• three most recent Protocols under review
– particulate matter!
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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History of effects-related
CLRTAP bodies
No. of Parties having participated in Task Force meetings and/or provided data, as of 28 Feb 2005
19791980198119821983 198419851986198719881989 199019911992199319941995 1996199719981999200020012002 200320042005
Working Group on Effects
ICP Forests
41
ICP Waters
24
ICP Materials
19
ICP Vegetation
33
ICP Modelling and Mapping (formerly: Task Force on Mapping)
28
ICP Integrated Monitoring
19
Joint Task Force on Health
23
Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling of the Working Group on Strategies and Review
1999 Gothenburg Protocol
1998 POPs Protocol
1998 Heavy Metal Protocol
1994 Sulphur Protocol
1991 VOC Protocol
1988 Nitrogen Oxides Protocol
1985 Sulphur Protocol
1984 EMEP Protocol
16
22
24
25
21
29
22
41
1979 Convention
49
1979 1980 198119821983 198419851986198719881989 1990 19911992199319941995 1996199719981999 2000 20012002 20032004 2005
number of ratifications, as of 28 Feb 2005
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Working Group on Effects, Sep
2005
• Effects-based emission reduction
strategies
• New long-term strategy
• New critical and target loads
• acidification (CL, TL)
• eutrophication (CL)
• heavy metals (CL; Pb, Cd, Hg)
• Cooperation between CCE and CIAM
• Importance of the EECCA region (Eastern
Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia)
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Long-term effects strategy
• Priorities:
• monitoring, assessment, exposure-response
• combination of stresses and feedbacks:
– air pollution, climate change and biodiversity links
•
•
•
•
modelling and mapping
validation and uncertainties
new heavy metals and POPs
Benefit assessments
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Dynamic models
 reconstruction
 prognosis
 CL validation
Damage delay time
Recovery delay time
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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If at present …
Acidification
Not violated
DDT exists
All fine!
(No DDT or RDT)
Target year ≤ DDT
TL = CL
Target year > DDT
TL < CL, if feasible
RDT exists
Violated
Chemical criterion is …
Critical Load (CL) is …
Not exceeded
Exceeded
Target year < RDT 
TL < CL, if feasible
TL < CL, if feasible
(No DDT or RDT)
Target year ≥ RDT
TL = CL
TL: Target Load; DDT: Damage Delay Time; RDT: Recovery Delay Time
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Reduced exceedance of CL(acid)
1990 - 2010
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Reduced exceedance of CLnut(N)
1990 - 2010
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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How to link d(emissions) to d(CL exceedances):
Impact coefficients for eutrophication
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Impact coefficients for acidity
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Common 2006 workplan items
• Report
• support of effects-based approaches for the review
and possible revision of the Convention protocols (to
be defined by the Executive Body)
• Summarize
• dose-response functions
• stock at risk
• Review
• links between field observations and critical loads
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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European Transboundary
Nitrogen Activity
Ongoing Activities
ETNA Cluster
NitroEurope IP
National
research activities
ESF Project
European Nitrogen
Management
Projects
COST Action
Atmosphere-Biosphere
& multiple N strategies
CarboEurope IP
Other EU
research projects
CBD
EEA/ECNC
SEBI 2010
Primary Research
Research Synthesis
ENC and Analysis
Measurement & modelling
at multiple scales
Model harmonization
&source-receptor links
of links between multiple
N forms and impacts
Methods, datasets,
process understanding,
models, maps, trends
verification, uncertainty
Refined parameterization,
integrated assessment
and analysis of KyotoGothenburg synergies
Synthesis of synergies
& recommendations
for Integrated
Nitrogen Management
IGBP - iLEAPS
UNFCCC: IPCC and
Monitoring Mechanism
UNEP / SCOPE / IGBP
International
Nitrogen Initiative (INI)
EMEP/WMO
European Commission
Task Force on
and National Parties
Measurement
& Modelling
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop
– Charlottesville,
VA, 23-25 May 2006
Input to underpin
Convention negotiations
FCCC, CLRTAP & others
Core Role
Main
Deliverables
International
Users
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NitroEurope Challenges
• What are the quantitative components of
nitrogen budgets for European ecosystems
and how do these respond to the drivers of
global change?
• How much does nitrogen control carbon
exchange and net greenhouse gas budgets
for European terrestrial ecosystems?
• How could a European N emissions
strategy contribute to EU objectives in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions?
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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COST 729 Challenges
• Much knowledge on causal chain and
interaction with other cycles
• Development and extension of IAM
necessary
• Source –receptor modelling, including
atmosphere biosphere interactions and
climatic influences
• Non-linearities and coupling with other
cycles
– N effects climate (N2O, aerosols)
– Climate change affects SRM through meteo and
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads
Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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chemistry
49
ESF Project Nitrogen in Europe:
• Assessment of alteration of (European) N
cycle
• Scientific Network Programme (5 years):
– Overviews of literature, current studies,
databases and models relevant for the N
cascade
– Grants for exchange visits
– Workshops
– Summer schools
– Conferences
– Databases, models
– Webpage, dissemination
U.S. Multi-Agency Critical Loads Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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Nr production in 1995 and 2050
Tg N/y
32
32
568
67
42
60
190
87
10
5
2
5
2050 production scaled to:
-> Population increase relative to 1995
-> N. American per capita Nr production
after Multi-Agency
Galloway andCritical
Cowling,
2002
U.S.
Loads
Workshop – Charlottesville, VA, 23-25 May 2006
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