Transcript All is not lost!

Climate Change:
the BAD news
Keith Burrows
Australian Institute of Physics
Education Committee (Vic)
Since IPCC 2007:
Sea level rise worse than we thought
(IPCC ignored Greenland and Antarctica melt)
Since IPCC 2007:
Sea level rise worse than we thought
(IPCC ignored Greenland and Antarctica melt)
NASA Earth Observatory
18 Feb 2011
Record Melting in
Greenland during 2010
“2010 was an exceptional
year for Greenland’s ice
cap. Melting started early
and stretched later in the
year than usual. Little snow
fell to replenish the losses.
By the end of the season,
much of southern
Greenland had set a new
record, with melting that
lasted 50 days longer than
average.”
The ‘Arctic
weather’ has been
pushed south by
climate change
Problem is the
deniers are in the
cold bit and the
melting ice in the
warm bit!
Arctic sea ice melting at record rates
East Antarctica
is also melting
faster than we
thought.
Figure 14: Observed Antarctic Warming Trend (°C/decade) from 1957-2006
Steig, E. J. et al., Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, (2009)
Marysville Vic Feb 2009
Rochester Vic Jan 2011
Queensland floods Jan 2011
Queensland Cyclone Yasi Jan 2011
Russian extreme
heat and fires 2010
Pakistan extreme
rain and floods 2010
2010 Hottest year on record
2000’s Hottest decade on record
But do we believe it?
• Polls are
going the
WRONG
WAY!
CC as 1, 2 or 3:
Jan 2010 – 16%
Oct 2010 – 11%
Jan 2011 – 10%
Ian Plimer... that noted climate expert...
It has sold very well! 80,000+ copies
• Plimer says “the climate
has always changed” – we
just have to get used to it.
• “If we humans, in a fit of
ego, think we can change
these normal planetary
processes, then we need
stronger medication.”
How can he, a scientist, say that?
• Surely he knows that we have increased the CO2
(greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere by almost 40%
• and that CO2 absorbs IR radiation
• and that there is a strong correlation between the
CO2 and the temperature...
How can he, a scientist, say that?
2010
And that other noted ‘climate expert’...
“UN is using the global
warming scare in order to
impose world government”
Monckton’s temperature graph
25 Feb 2011
• The Murdoch media
gives a VERY different
picture compared to
The Age and the ABC
Bolt, McCrann “analysis”?!
Bolt:
“a useless new tax that will drive up your power bills”
“Gillard is setting an example no one plans to follow and
the climate will not notice”
McCrann:
“Julia Gillard has now turned her big lie into a big new tax.”
Don’t like your power bills? “Get used to it, they are
headed much higher. And then higher again and again.”
“It sets out to hurt every Australian – to absolutely no
point.” “not the slightest difference to the climate”
“Talk about hypocrisy, stupidity and deceit rolled into one.”
Compare Ballieu’s “backdown” on teachers
• Baillieu’s broken promise
to teachers is apparently
“tough talk” or a “back
away”
So is it any wonder:
H-S 25 Feb
Herald – Sun online 18 March
(Garnaut)
12th
March
2011
• AB: One, how much will this cost? Two, how well will it
work?
• JD: No, I can't tell you but I do know that the modelling
shows that it's cheaper to start earlier rather than later.
• JD: Well, what we do know is that to have an even chance
of keeping temperature increases globally to 2 degrees ...
you've got to reduce emissions globally by 50 per cent by
2050.
[AB Totally ignores this comment]
More Bolt madness (same article)
AB: In fact, if Gillard shut down our economy completely and shot every
burping cow , the temperature by 2100 would fall just 0.01 degrees. All pain,
zero gain.
AB: Hear it from John R. Christy: Professor of atmospheric science University
of Alabama:
JC: “Over the past 32 years, he said, the warming trend seemed to be a third
of what global warming models predicted”
JC: “Recent natural disasters in Australia were just part of the natural cycles,
and plans to "stop" warming with, say, an emissions trading scheme were
futile.”
JC: "We calculate that the impact of legislative actions being considered on
the global temperature is essentially imperceptible."
AB: Huge cost. No effect. So I urge you: ask the politicians flogging this
"carbon tax" the most basic questions you'd ask any salesman: How much?
And what will it do?
And if their answers are as clueless as Duggan's, tell these shysters you're
not buying.
More Bolt madness
AB: Hear it from John R. Christy: Professor of atmospheric science University of
Alabama:
JC: “Over the past 32 years the warming trend seemed to be a third of what global
warming models predicted”
2010 temp
Not quite
what the
data says!
More Bolt madness
AB: Hear it from John R. Christy: Professor of atmospheric science University of
Alabama:
KB:
• John Christy supports the
Cornwall Alliance who say:
“We believe Earth and its ecosystems—created by God’s intelligent
design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence
—are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting,
admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory.
Earth’s climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is
one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic
history.”
“Global temperatures last month [Jan 2011] were at the
long term average, or just below (thanks to the La Nina)”
Herald-Sun 5 Feb 2011
•
•
•
•
•
But what
he
didn’t mention:
NOT ‘long term average’ only 1981-2010 (~ +0.4oC long term)
Exceptional La Niña should give exceptional low temp!
This was a dramatic dip from record highs.
This dip well above previous dips.
Clear upward long term trend.
AND:
• Exceptional La Niña due to exceptionally warm
Australian waters
December 2010
AND:
“Never mind, here comes Flannery with his
latest scares and you-beaut fix.”
His job as Climate Commission chief …is to
"provide an authoritative, independent source of information on
climate change …”
“That, translated, means selling us whatever scheme the
Government cooks up to tax carbon dioxide, doing to the economy
what the floods have done to Flannery's hot-rocks investment.
See why I say Flannery is the right man for this job? Who better
to teach us how little we really know about global warming and
how much it may cost to panic?”
Unfortunately the OZ is not much better:
Question:
How can we counter
this propaganda?
Enough of the bad news!