Transcript Climate Change – Can science teachers play a part

Keith Burrows
AIP Education Committee (Vic)
CONASTA July 2009
YES !
In fact they should have a key role!
Keith Burrows
AIP Education Committee (Vic)
CONASTA July 2009
Be sure to look at the ‘Notes
Page’ in PowerPoint for further
comments and explanations.
• Would you get on this aeroplane if 1 out
of 10 engineers found dangerous cracks
in the wings?
• How about if 9 out of 10 engineers said there
were dangerous cracks in the wings and 1 said
they didn’t matter?
• That’s about the proportion of scientists
saying climate change is dangerous!
• That’s about the proportion of scientists
saying climate change is dangerous!
1 July 2009
Latest news:
Sea level rise worse than we thought
“The bad news is that there is a growing consensus
that the IPCC estimates are wildly optimistic.”
“They found that ice loss is increasing fast.
Greenland is now losing about 300
gigatonnes of ice per year, enough to raise
sea level by 0.83 mm. Antarctica is losing
about 200 gigatonnes per year, almost all of
it from West Antarctica and the Antarctic
Peninsula, raising levels by 0.55 mm.”
(0.83 + 0.55 = 1.4 mm/yr, i.e. >1.2 metres by 2100 )
Latest news:
Sea level rise worse than we thought
“About 60 million people live within 1
metre of mean sea level, a number
expected to grow to about 130
million by 2100.”
[Mostly in the nine major river deltas
in south and southeast Asia.]
In Europe “a 1-metre rise in sea level
will affect 13 million people … and
destroy property worth $60 billion,
with the Netherlands the worst
affected.”
“Large parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are vulnerable to
collapse which would add 3 metres to global sea levels”
“Paul Blanchon's
team at the National
Autonomous
University of Mexico
in Cancun has been
studying 121,000year-old coral reefs
in the Yucatan
Peninsula,
formed during the last interglacial period when sea level peaked at
around 6 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one
point the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.”
CO2e
Latest news:
Sea level rise not the only problem!
Latest news:
Sea level rise not the only problem!
• A declaration of vested
interests!
Download
these
presentations
from:
Download these
presentations from:
www.vicphysics.org
Why Science Teachers?
• Climate change is the most significant threat
human civilization has ever faced.
• In order to appreciate the magnitude of the
problem, it must be seen through the lens of
science.
• A huge public education campaign is needed.
• (as distinct from the mis-education campaign
prevalent in some parts of the media)
Why Us?
• “These stark conclusions about the threat posed
by global climate change and implications for
fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by
essential governing bodies
… In our view, there is an acute need for science
to inform society about the costs of failure to
address global warming, because of a
fundamental difference between the threat
posed by climate change and most prior global
threats.”
• The conclusion from: Dangerous human-made interference with
climate: a GISS modelE study J Hansen et al. Journal of Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 7, 2287–2312, 2007
Why Us?
• Two crucial points:
• “...acute need for science to inform society...”
• “...fundamental difference ... most prior global
threats”
Why Us?
• “...acute need for science to inform society...”
• past scientific debates – limited effect on most people
(Nuclear, Acid rain, Ozone hole, GE food…)
• This time we are asking everyone - EVERYONE ON EARTH
- to change the way they do things…
• …on the basis of a scientific discussion without OBVIOUS
evidence. (And some dispute about it.)
• Never before has the actual science been so important in
the debate…
• …because people need good reasons to change their
behaviour – not just scientific ‘say-so’.
Why Us?
• “...fundamental difference ... most prior global
threats”
• Unique in human history…
• Threat of war could be seen – (even if often
ignored until too late).
• Once climate change is obvious it will be
MUCH TOO LATE...
• and the consequences catastrophic.
• And again, it is only understandable in
scientific terms.
Why Us?
• Dealing with climate change will require
massive adjustments to the way we do things.
• Most of these adjustments are based on
science, so...
• people need to understand at least some basic
scientific concepts:
– energy
– radiation
– scientific method
Why Us?
• Climate scientists are generally:
• Too busy doing their science.
• Not necessarily good at communicating with
the lay public.
• Trying to talk to politicians.
Why Us?
Why Us?
If we don’t
do it, who
else will?
Why Us?
• Other groups do talk about climate change:
• The media – but usually trying to make a
‘debate’ out of it.
Herald Sun 19 Dec 2008
Herald Sun a
few days after
Bolt’s article.
5 out of 6
support Bolt’s
denier-ism
• “Satellite data indicates the southern hemisphere has recorded
no warming”
• “When will the biggest scientific fraud in history fall apart?”
• “The [CPRS] is a non-solution to a non-problem” (Bob Carter)
• “In the last Ice Age the CO2 levels were 4000 ppm”
• “heat travels from hot to cold so the colder CO2 cannot warm
the surface below”
• “The telling thing about the global warming faith is that it’s
preached almost entirely by hypocrites” (AB)
‘Good’ articles are also published - but often
hidden away in the ‘comment and debate’ section
But the ‘sceptics’ always
seem to get a pretty good
airing – because that’s
what people want to hear.
And because his one vote
could be vital to our
future!
End of part 1. Go to CCConasta09e-2.ppt