Transcript Document
Royal Society Coral Crisis Working Group 6 July 2009 Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Extermination of Animal & Plant Species 1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species 2. Unsustainable Migration Rates Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level 1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data 2. Ice Sheet Response Time Regional Climate Disruptions 1. Increase of Extreme Events 2. Shifting Zones/Freshwater Shortages Taken from James Hansen’s presentation: Climate Threat to the Planet. The Path from Science to Action. Trinity International University June 5 2009 Assessment of Target CO2 (Hansen et al 2009) • Phenomenon Target CO2 (ppm) • 1. Arctic Sea Ice 300-325 • 2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level 300-350 • 3. Shifting Climatic Zones 300-350 • 4 Alpine Water Supplies 300-350 • 5. Ocean Acidification 300-350 • Initial target CO2 < 350 ppm * *assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease Taken from James Hansen’s presentation: Climate Threat to the Planet. The Path from Science to Action. Trinity International University June 5 2009 Key actions for getting back to 350ppm 1. Phase Out Coal CO2 Emissions - by 2025/2030 developed/developing countries 2. Rising Carbon Price - discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.) 3. Soil & Biosphere CO2 Sequestration - improved farming & forestry practices 4. Reduce non-CO2 Forcings - reduce CH4, O3, trace gases, black soot In summary: • Human driven climate change is real and the danger is far greater than most people are aware. • It’s imperative that we restore Earth’s energy imbalance (i.e. get back to <350ppm CO2.) with all urgency. • We need to understand & act on the developing threat & response imperatives. • We should be redoubling efforts to ensure the current destruction of natural systems is halted. These are key to our survival. • We need to be planning for the now unavoidable impacts of climate change. • We have precious little time to avert runaway climate change. The critical importance of natural systems UNEP atlas of carbon stored by biome What’s our view on agriculture? What are our viable energy options? A compelling case for nuclear power? What’s our view on Geoengineering? Online climate change & biodiversity database www.bioclimate.org www.bioclimate.org How might risk change? Susceptibility Extinction Risk due to biological traits high Interaction Exposure to climate change Zoo community focus actions: • Keep on top of the emerging threat and response information and the wider environmental/climate community. • Take up and disseminate the WAZA position statement and support materials • Consider decision maker communication initiatives (as we did for COP-15) • Increase pubic engagement (exhibits, Websites, media, talks/symposia etc) • Realise potential of our zoo sites for research. • Need to agree improvements to current threat evaluation process. • Highlight Zoo focus species (CP and ICP programmes etc) • Need to increase specialist collaborations (e.g. Hadley, NASA) • Fully utilise the international WAZA community network. • Need to be flexible and responsive to emerging developments (eg phytoplankton decline) and react accordingly. Online climate change & biodiversity database www.bioclimate.org www.bioclimate.org www.bioclimate.org