Transcript Royal Society 03_01_2007

Climate-Change Science and
NAS Activities
Consortium for Ocean Leadership
Washington, D.C.
October 15, 2009
Ralph J. Cicerone, President
National Academy of Sciences
Earth receives visible light from hot Sun
and Earth radiates to space as a
blackbody at infrared wavelengths
237
342
105
68
H2O, CO2, O3
390
327
169
90
16
Calculating the Surface
Temperatures of Planets
Visible
S(1 - a) = sTe
4
Infrared
for Earth, S = 1368 W/m2, a = 0.3, so we calculate
Te = 255K (- 18 ºC or - 32 ºF) WRONG !
Greenhouse effect & clouds are needed
for Mars
Te = 240 to 250K (large day/night swings) OK !
Greenhouse effect is very small, low pressure
for Venus
WRONG
Actual Te = 730K
WRONG!!
Greenhouse effect and clouds, high pressure
www.scrippsco2.ucsd.edu
Global CO2 Emission Estimates 1750 - 2005
CITE AS: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2007. Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A
Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S.
Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption
by Source (in billion metric tons C)
Coal
0.58
Petroleum
0.70
Natural Gas
0.32
Hydro (0)
Biomass (0)
Geothermal (0)
Wind (0)
Solar (0)
Nuclear (0)
Coal 0.58
Natural Gas 0.32
Petroleum 0.70
Source: LLNL 2006; data is based on EIA-DOE 2006b.
University of California, Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory and the Department of Energy
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption
by Usage (in billion metric tons C)
Aircraft
0.06
Freight/
Other
0.13
Light-Duty
Vehicles
0.29
Electricity
Generation
0.63
Industrial
0.33
Residential
0.09
0.06
Source: LLNL 2006; data is based on EIA-DOE 2006b.
University of California, Lawrence Livermore National
Commercial
Laboratory and the Department of Energy
GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.
Hansen and Lebedeff (1987), updated January 2009 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Source : University of Colorado, Boulder
http://sealevel.colorado.edu
Figure 1. Time series of ice mass changes for the Greenland ice sheet estimated from GRACE monthly
mass solutions for the period from April 2002 to February 2009. The best-fitting quadratic trend
is shown (green line).
VELICOGNA 2009
Figure 2. Time series of ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet estimated from GRACE monthly mass
solutions for the period from April 2002 to February 2009. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown
(green line).
VELICOGNA 2009
GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.
Frohlich and Lean (2005): Recent analyses of satellite measurements
do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance
(the amount of energy received by the sun)
Solar irradiance through September 2008.
Reference: Fröhlich, C. and J. Lean, Astron.
Astrophys. Rev., 12, pp. 273--320, 2004. http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant
World Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2030
Transitional and Emerging Economies
Mature Market Economies
Quadrillion Btu
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
History
Projections
702
654
607
559
511
463
284
347
365
90
95
398
308
244
207
1970 75
80
85
2000 05
10
15
20
25
30
Sources: History 1970-1975: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, April 22, 2008. History, 1980-2005: Energy
Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2005 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea). Projections: International Energy Outlook 2007,
DOE/EIA-0484(2007) (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo).
Increase in coal-fired electric power
Coal-fired capacity, GWe, 2003 & USEIA projection
USA
China
India
World
2003
310
239
67
1120
2010
319
348 478
95
1300
2020
345
531756 140
1600
2030
457
785 1034161
2000
World coal-electric capacity goes up ~900 GWe by 2030, and
640 GWe of the increase is in China and India.
Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 &
2008
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation = Reduce Pace and Amount of Climate
Change Caused by Humans
Adaptation = Reduce Adverse Impacts on Human
Well-being from Climate Changes
that Occur
Global Carbon Cycle Management
Anthropogenic
Emission
7.2 GtC / y
ex: 2.4-2.8℃ rise from PI
Dangerous Level 425～440ppm
2ppm/y
How to control
the tap
to avoid risk
Present
380ppm
industrialization
280ppm
Pre-Industrial
Feedback
CO2 in Atmosphere
Absorption
3.1 GtC/ y
Ocean 2.2
Land 0.9
Adapted from Nishioka, NIES, Japan
Oceans acidifying as well as warming
pH history and “business as usual” projection
Red line is global annual
average; blue lines show
ocean-to-ocean and
seasonal variation.
Surface ocean pH has already
fallen by 0.1 pH unit. Projected
additional changes are likely to
have large impacts on corals and
other ocean organisms that make
skeletons/ shells from calcium
carbonate.
America’s Climate Choices
PL 110-161 (Dept of Commerce 2008)
requested the NAS to:
“investigate and study the serious and
sweeping issues relating to global climate
change and make recommendations
regarding what steps must be taken and
what strategies must be adopted in
response to global climate change,
including the science and technology
challenges thereof.”
For more information: americaclimatechoice.org
America's Climate Choices
 23 members
Limiting the
Magnitude of
Future Climate
Change
Adapting to the
Impacts of
Climate Change
Advancing the
Science of
Climate Change
Informing Effective
Decisions and
Actions Related to
Climate Change
18 members
 18 members
 20 members
 16 members
 6 -10 Oceanographers
Guiding Questions
Four focused panels are writing reports on:
1.
2.
3.
4.
What can be done to limit the magnitude of future
climate change?
What can be done to adapt to the impacts of climate
change?
What can be done to better understand climate change
and its interactions with human and ecological
systems?
What can be done to inform effective decisions and
actions related to climate change?
The panels will also provide input to the main
committee on the next four questions …
Guiding Questions
The Main Committee (with input from the panels) will
write a final report that addresses:
5. What short-term actions can be taken to respond
effectively to climate change?
6. What promising long-term strategies, investments, and
opportunities could be pursued to respond to climate
change?
7. What are the major scientific and technological
advances needed to better understand and respond
effectively to climate change?
8. What are the major impediments (e.g., practical,
institutional, economic, ethical, intergenerational, etc.)
to responding to climate change, and what can be done
to overcome these impediments?
Science in the Federal Government – 2009
• Presidential speeches and commitments
• Scientists in top positions
• new PCAST