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Mountain Pine Beetle In British Columbia Climate Change and Fire Management Research Strategy Forum February 18, 2009 “Mountain Pine Beetle – A Case Study of the Social, Economic and Environmental Impacts of Climate Change” Fire Management & The Pine Portfolio Area Of Attack •Last “Killing Winter” Was 1997/98 Millions of Hectares 14 12 •Old + Mature Pine @ Contact: Est. 0.4 Billion m3 10 8 •Old + Mature Pine @ 1997: Est. 1.2 Billion m3 6 4 2 164,567 0 1999 2007 •24% of 1.2 Billion m3: Est. 0.3 Billion m3 Forest Management Paradigm To Optimise LRSY 1) Fire suppression conserved the mature timber legacy 2) Second growth practices allowed us to benefit from legacy at a higher rate of LRSY: •Tree improvement and Class A seed •Better site preparation •Minimal regeneration delay •Better density control •Forest fertilisation One Problem With Paradigm: Climate Change Economic Issues Timber Supply Drives Economic Impact Timber Supply Loss Approximation ………………… ………………… ………………… ………………… …………………. . Timber Supply Forecast Accelerated Pine Salvage While Suitable For Sawmills Economic Opportunity In Dead Pine +- 10 million m3/Year Supply Improves Supply Level Pre-Epidemic Supply Level Post-Epidemic Forest Sector & The Economy •Exports bring money into BC to pay for imports and consumption by population •Called the ‘Economic Base’ •Interior industry is 19% of provincial base •40,000 direct jobs, high average salary •$22,000 tax revenue/employee vs. $4000 average for other employees (2005) Crown Revenues Year 1 Year 2-3 Year ‘X’ • Amount and value of wood product declines with time – 17.5% in FII L&M Lumber study • So does stumpage Sub-Regional Economic Growth 50% 45 .1 % 60% 50 .4 % Census Population Change % 1991-2006 -0 .3 % 1. 7% 10% 1. 9% 6. 0% 9. 4% 20% 17 .1 % 30% 20 .3 % 19 .2 % 25 .3 % 25 .2 % 0% R -10% SL D C O RD BC N O RD C SR D O SR D TN R D R D C K R D EK Regional Districts C R D G FF R D BN R D R KB -1 .4 % Percentage 40% D Sub-Regional Economic Diversity Forestry Other Industry Public Sector Transfers & Non-Empl. Income 80 70 Rural Economic Transition 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mackenzie Morice Fort St. James Lakes Cariboo/Chilcotin Prince George Lillooet West Kootenay Kamloops OkanaganShuswap Risk to Economy of Boreal Forest • Canada, BC & Alberta Collaborating • ‘Suppression’ Zone Trans-border • Conditions Harsh For Beetle? Lodgepole Pine Jack Pine Mountain pine beetle No climate or biological barriers to MPB Source: NRCan/CFS/PFC Environmental Issues Forest Composition & Carbon Storage Hydrology of Watersheds Net Effects on Some Rivers Possibilities: •More water yield •Higher peak flows •Quicker snow melt •Earlier snow melt •Increased ‘flashiness’ •Stream morphology Actual Outcomes Depend On Intricate Relationships Between Snow Accumulations, Weather Events and Spring Melt Rates Environmental Issues Wildlife Habitat -’Interior’ Birds -Cold Water Fish -Warm Water Fish -Ungulates Visuals Grasslands and Range Costs To Restore Resources, Data Reforestation Resource Inventory Ecosystems Social Issues Community Resilience & Sustainability Ability To Sustain: •Industrial Tax Base •Core Infrastructure •Amenities and Services •First Nations Culture •Retired and Elderly Population •Economic Growth Public Safety Industrial Traffic Recreation Sites Air Quality Worker Safety New Preliminary Advice To Fire Crews: • More crowning, even when calm • Radiant heat ignites red foliage at > distance • More ‘fire brands’, > spot fires • “Black” zones not safe unless both surface and crown burned Urban Interface Hazard and Risk •“Fuel Management” •Local Governments •First Nations Govt’s •460,000 hectares at issue Provincial Response Strategy ………………… ………………… ………………… ………………… …………………. . A ‘Triple Bottom Line’ Strategy BC MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE ACTION PLAN ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY •Economic •Restore •Conserve sustainability for Ecosystems Society’s Values In communities Land Use Plans •Recover the •Restore Forest •Public Safety, value of dead Resources Of Health, timber Other Kinds Infrastructure Co-ordinated, effective planning and implementation END www.gov.bc.ca/pinebeetle