Transcript (Xinhua)Updated: 2011-01-11 19:41 Chinese President Hu

Distillation and Synthesis of Monthly
Environmental Security Reports
Emerging International
Environmental Security Issues
for the
Army Environmental Policy Institute
by the
The Millennium Project
Jerome C. Glenn
February 23, 2011
Outline
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Definition of Environmental Security
Brief Introduction to The Millennium Project
Conflicts and Environment
Environmental Security – Sustainability Framing Issues
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Food Crisis
Water Crisis
Climate Change
Energy Considerations
• Some additional threats, trends, and issues
• Recent or Potential Changes in International Environmental
Agreements
• Technological Advances with Environmental Security Implications
• Some New Opportunities and General Recommendations
• Conclusions
1/11/11 Chinese President Hu Jintao in meeting
with Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged the
two militaries to deepen strategic trust.
Environmental Security should be a major focus
of that strategic trust.
Environmental Security is
the viability for life support, with three sub-elements:
1. Preventing or repairing military damage to the
environment
2. Preventing or responding to environmentally caused
conflicts
3. Protecting the environment due to the moral value of
the environment itself
The Millennium Project has identified more than 2,000
environmental security items since August 2002.
The Millennium Project
... is a new kind of think tank
It is global:
Geographically,
Institutionally, and
Subject focus
…established in 1996
…after a 3-year feasibility study
UN
Universities
Organizations
Millennium
Project
Corporations
Governments
NGOs
… May become a TransInstitution
40 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
14th Annual Report Card
on the Future
Global Challenges
State of the Future Index
Collective Intelligence
Environmental Security
Latin America 2030
Other Futures Research
Plus 7,000-page CD
World Report Card
Where we are winning
1. Percent of population with access to safe water
2. Adult Literacy rate (% of people ages 15 and above)
3. Percent of population enrolled in secondary school
4. Percent in least developed countries at $1.25/day
5. Annual global population growth is falling
6. Annual GDP per capita increasing at 3% (IMF 2010)
7. Physicians per 1,000 people
8. Internet users per 100 people - 30% world connected
9. Infant mortality is falling
10. Life expectancy is increasing
11. Percent of women in national parliaments
12. Increasing energy efficiency (use per GDP)
13. Decreasing armed conflicts - 1000+ deaths per year
14. Increasing food availability - calories per capita
Where there is little change
15. Prevalence of HIV (% of population ages 15-49)
16. Homicide rate
17. Percent of GDP for research and development
Where we are losing:
18. Increasing annual CO2 emissions
19 Increasing global surface temperature anomalies
20. Percent Voting in Elections of 15 largest countries
21. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)
22. Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)
23. Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries)
24. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks
Where there is uncertainty
25. Refugees
26. Countries with or planning nuclear weapons
27. Political and press freedom
28. Forest area (% of land area)
29. Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income
30. Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases
Conflicts and Environment
UNEP reports:
• Since mid–20th century more than 90% of major armed conflicts took place in
countries that contained biodiversity hotspots and over 80% occurred directly
within a hotspot
• Since 1990: 18 violent conflicts driven by factors related to
natural resources and/or environmental degradation
• Since 1960: 40% of all intrastate conflicts have links to natural resources.
• Environment-related conflicts are twice as likely to relapse in 5 years
• Less than 25% of relevant peace agreements address environmental and
resource management aspects
Pacific Institute reports;
• Water Conflict Chronology Map: more than 100 conflicts over the past 25 years
were water-related
• Estimated 80% of conflicts in Yemen are over water - first capital to run out of
water
Half the World Continues to be
Potentially Unstable
International Alert in the U.K. lists 102 such vulnerable countries. The Center for Naval
Analyses (U.S.) identifies 46 countries (2.7 bill. people) at high risk of armed conflict, and
an additional 56 states (1.2 bill. people) at risk of political instability
1.
Food Crisis (increasing prices, scarcity, shrinking food reserves, decreasing water)
2.
Water Crisis (falling water tables, scarcity, and pollution)
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Energy Crisis (supply/demand especially India and China)
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Ocean acidification and dead zones (which kills some species affecting the food chain)
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Increasing Natural Disasters (Climate change related issues: floods, hurricanes, droughts)
6.
Population concentrations (livestock waste, water pollution, etc.)
7.
Desertification
8.
Failed States
9.
Humans use 30-50% more than nature can replenish and 60% of the ecosystems are gone
or are used unsustainably
 Without major changes, items 1-9 will increase the number of refugees (political,
economic, and environmental) further reducing environmental security
 The number of countries with most acute vulnerability will increase from 17 in 2010 to 48
in 2030 (Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2010)
Hence, we are not yet winning the battle for environmental security
Food Crises
• FAO: World food production must increase by 70% and
water by 11% by 2050 to feed 9.1 billion
• Basic food prices continue to increase around the world
• Food Price Index was 214.7 in December 2010 (highest on
record)
• Staple food prices could rise 130% by 2050 – IFPRI
• All leading to increasing social instability and potential for
water and land conflicts
• World hunger – close to 1 billion people now (historic high)
• Nearly 1 billion live on $1.25/day and 3 billion on $2/day
• Long-term global social conflict seems inevitable without
more serious food policies, agricultural innovations, useful
scientific breakthroughs, and dietary changes.
• World Bank President: rising food prices were an
aggravating factor of the unrest in the Middle East.
High Food Prices – Long-Term
• population growth
• rising affluence especially
India & China
• diversion of corn for biofuels
• soil erosion
• aquifer depletion
• the loss of cropland
• falling water tables and water
pollution
• Increasing fertilizer costs
(high oil prices)
• Market speculation
• diversion of water from rural
to urban
• Increasing meat
consumption
• global food reserves at 25year lows
• climate change
• Increasing droughts
• Increasing flooding
• Melting mountain
glaciers reducing water
flows
• And eventually saltwater
invading crop lands
Water Crisis
• Water has to be found for an additional 2+ billion people by 2050
• Peak Fossil Water - Water tables are falling on all continents, and glacial water
supplies are diminishing
• 40% of humanity gets its water from sources controlled by two or more countries
• By 2030 over 4 billion people could be in areas of high water stress while Asia
could face a 40% gap between water supply and demand (WEF)
• Nile basin treaty stalled (Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda,
Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) implications for AFRICOM to reduce potential
conflict.
• Middle East: by 2100, the Euphrates (runs through Turkey, Syria and Iraq) might
shrink by 30%, the Jordan River by 80%, Israel water supply might fall by 60% of
2000 levels; the Dead Sea is shrinking by 1 meter per year due to overuse of its
tributaries, and climate change.
Note: UN General Assembly Resolution and UN Human Rights Council affirms the
right to water as legally-binding.
Climate Change
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Since 1970, each decade has been warmer than the preceding one
2000-2010 has been the warmest on record - 2005 and 2010 hottest on record
IPCC has consistently under-forecasted severity of impacts (Tundra melt not in latest)
If business as usual, by 2060, global average temperature could rise by 4°C (7.2°F) -- UK
Met Office
If the world’s politically acceptable best targets are met––the planet will still warm by
3.5°C (6.3°F) by the end of the century -- UNEP
Currently 390 ppm, political target of 450 ppm is not sustainable; 350 ppm says NASA
In July 2009, the world’s oceans reached the highest average temperature since record
keeping began 130 years ago – changes in ocean currents have been measured
Increased CO2 increases ocean acidification, kills some species, affecting the food chain
“Permanent” ice cover around the North Pole has thinned by more than 40% since 2004.
The Chair of the IPCC noted that the agreement doesn’t consider the IPCC’s
recommendation that in order to achieve the 2ºC goal, emissions should peak by 2015.
Climate change can have synergies for non-linear effects - disease/agricultural patterns
Environmental migrants 250 million est. by 2050; 3000 now from Tuvalu to New Zealand
Therefore, “Business-as-usual” is an environmental security threat
Number of People affected by
Natural Disasters
All this happened in 2010:
Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters – leads
consortium that feeds the UN data:
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373 disasters;
296,800 people killed
207 million people affected
$109 billion estimated damages
Swiss Re: $222 billion economic losses by
man-made and natural disasters
The Long-range Climate Problem
• Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere leads to
proliferation of microbes that emit H2S (hydrogen sulfide - a
very poisonous gas)
• Increased H2S also depletes the Ozone Layer
• 1000 ppm of CO2 is the “point of no return”
• After which H2S is produced in huge quantities in the ocean;
inexorable path to levels of H2S and radiation more than
enough to wipe out the bulk of mammals on the land,
including humans.
• Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky and AAAS ref:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=impactfrom-the-deep
Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth
1500
Surprise
Carbon sequestration
and/or re-use
1000
Geothermal
Solar
Exajoules
Biomass
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
500
Gas
Oil &NGL
0
1860
Coal
Trad. Bio.
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Global Energy – some items
• Next 25 years: World energy demand up 40-50%
• Energy efficiencies can help
• But fossil fuels will dominate unless major changes, even
though majority of US/UK new energy from renewables
• Coal plants have to be retrofitted for carbon
sequestration, pending carbon tax incentives
• Maybe carbon re-use from coal plants for nanotube
production
• Exxon $600 million investment for biofuels from algae.
Resources-Related Geopolitical Topics
North Pole Competition
for Oil & Gas
Ratio of Middle East
Oil & Gas Increases
Relative to Others
Bolivia Lithium
Potential Cartel
China-Africa
New energy
alliances &
resource
colonialism
22
General Geopolitical Topics
US - China
Apollo-like
climate change
goal/program
Climate Change
Success or failure of
cap & trade and
Carbon Taxes
Global Issue
Water scarcity
23
Revolutions in
the Middle East
and Terrorism
If It Ain’t Fit… Retrofit
Falling Battery Prices Creates Rush
in the Electric and Hybrid Car Industry
Volvo Plug-in Hybrid -- battery range of
50km before diesel/electric kicks in.
Some Interesting ideas…
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Apollo-like Energy Program – SSP & Carbon Sequestration & Re-Use
$2000 electric car 10KW batteries from China (3/car) US/Finland
Japan Plans to receive electricity from orbital Solar Power Station by 2030
Ocean-based wind power microwave relay or hydrogen production
Thin-film solar flexible sheets lower costs for buildings
Algal biofuels: Algae produce oils naturally. New genetic codes grow
microscopic plants that produce oil that can substitute for petroleum
Fuel cells for mobile phones, computers, and light buildings
Nanotech for efficiencies in general and electric transmission
Plants break the CO2 bonds – CO2 is bonded to nitrogen atoms making less
stable carbamates which then can release carbon. Can we do the same and use
carbon from the air make fuel?
Energy efficiencies from urban systems ecology approaches with nanosensors
and transceivers in everything to manage a city as a whole from transportation
to security
Sea Water Agriculture and Geothermal variation
Solar farms to heat Stirling engines
Global Electricity Issues
By 2050 an additional 2.2 billion people will be added, 5-7 billion of
the 9 billion will live in high urban concentrations, economic growth
will accelerate, 300-425 nuclear power plants will be closed, electric
cars will increase. Where will the extra electricity come from ?
Fossil Fuels ?
Environmental Impacts
Nuclear power ?
Security and Env. Impacts
Alternatives from earth ?
Enough for megacities?
Energy from Solar Satellites ?
Storage problems and cost
No greenhouse gases
No nuclear waste
Enough for the world
No storage problems
A Long-Term Energy Option:
Solar Power Satellites
• DOD’s National Security Space Office
http://www.acq.osd.mil/nsso/solar/solar.htm
• NASA/Marshall study
• US Naval Research Laboratory R&D for SPS sandwich panel.
• International Academy of Astronautics to publish SPS study in April
• Japan announced its 2030 goal to establish solar power satellite
system, pending next test, may reduce to 2025, low Earth orbit
research satellite expected in 6-7 years
• EADS Astrium Germany - Space Divisions plan tests
• India's defense research organization interest
• European Space Agency studies positive
Single Individual Massively
Destructive (SIMAD)
• Just as we wrote lines of computer code to create software, we
will be able to write lines of genetic code to create new life forms
• Imagine a new virus with an incubation period of 3-6 months
created and released by a single individual in major airports
around the world
• Ubiquitous nano-sensor networks connected in real-time will
help, but anything that can be understood can be digitized,
anything digitized can potentially be hacked; hence, it is an
intellectual arms race, and hence, not sufficient prevention
• A new linkage of education and mental health may also be
required to prevent the development of SIMAD personality.
• Combinations of technology and human development should be
pursued.
Some additional Env-Security Threats
• IAEA Database Recorded 1,784 Nuclear Trafficking Incidents 1993–2009
• Waste (8.5 million tons/year hazardous waste movement; Hong Kong receives
daily about 100 containers of waste from the US and Canada; Europe ships
20 million containers of waste annually)
• E-waste grows by 40 million metric tons a year (UNEP); the International
Hazardous Waste Inspections Exercise at Seaports discovered that 54% of the 72
inspections had E-waste infringements; organized crime increasing in E-waste
and nuclear waste
• Over 50,000 commercial chemicals to increase 85% over the next 20 years
(UNEP)
• Nanotech hazards are poorly understood, but improving
• New kinds of weapons - nanotech methods for delivering biological agents
• Lack of safety and spread of nuclear, chemical, biotechnology labs (danger from
private biowarfare and genetic engineering labs)
• Increasing orbital space debris threatens access to space (US-Russian sat
collision, China’s ASAT)
Some Environmental Security Trends
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Militaries are increasingly called upon to assist in complex human and environmentrelated disasters and other non-traditional military roles
Synergies among and enforcement of International environmental treaties; e.g.,
meeting of Basel, Rotterdam, and Stockholm Conventions Parties
New Arctic focus (Denmark Command, Russia Special Unit, Nordic-Baltic Alliance)
Expansion of polluter-pays principle, and environmental liability and redress actions
Increased international protection of the environment and “common spaces”
Evolution of nation-centered to more global-centered security
Increasing attention to the precautionary principle versus reactive actions
International “coalitions of the willing” negotiating international treaties
“Competition” for local environmental, energy, and emissions reduction strategies
Increasing participation of civil society in the design of policies; alliances among private
companies, govs, NGOs and IOs to increase eco-efficiency
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Environmental diplomacy for conflict prevention
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Improving analytical tools for environmental assessment; hence, more accountability
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New watchdog bodies
Some additional Env-Security Issues
• Sovereignty vs. human rights and environmental security
• Acceleration of change and inter-linkage makes regulatory systems too
slow: Nanotechnology, Artificial biology, Chemical compounds, Geoengineering
• No treaty to protect natural resources during armed conflict
• No permanent international authority to monitor violations and to
address liability and redress claims for environmental damage in those
situations [Protocol 1 of the Geneva Conventions contains only generic
text on protecting the natural environment]
• No agreement on definitions for “widespread,” “long-lasting,” and
“severe” or a standard definition of what constitutes a “conflict
resource” or illegal resource exploitation and trade.
• No international legal instruments for internal conflicts [Majority of
today’s conflicts are internal]
• No international court on environmental crimes
Recent Changes in International
Environmental Agreements
• Convention on Cluster Munitions entered into force in August
2010
• Stockholm Convention (persistent organic chemicals) updated
with 9 new chemicals (in addition to 12 already listed);
evaluation mechanisms, compliance mechanism expected for
2011
• The “Cancún Agreements” for GHG emissions for Kyoto Protocol
• Rotterdam Convention (hazardous chemical trade) on Prior
Informed Consent (PIC) updated with tributyltin compounds in
Annex III
• International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) July 2010
• Biodiversity - protection and monitoring agreements
• EU restrictions on nano-products and industrial pollution
Potential changes in International
Environmental Agreements
• Biological Weapons Convention (enforcement, new threats, and
codes of conduct expected to be addressed at 2011 conference)
• Preventing WMD Terrorism: UN Security Council Resolution 1540
Assessment and Potential Revision
• International Criminal Court (ICC): war crimes and environmental
damage during armed conflict
• Banning some nonlethal riot-control agents
• European Parliament Resolution for Global Ban of DU Weapons
• Proposals for establishing liability and redress mechanisms for
environmental destruction in conflict-related situations
• international court on environmental crimes and “rights of Earth”
Number of countries
Major Environmental Agreements
Technological Advances with
Environmental Security Implications
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Faster, more robust sensors/detectors
Wearable energy production and sensors
Faster, less costly virus detection systems
Nanotech applications for clean-up operations
Advances in PV with BioMimicry falling costs
Rare earth seabed mining hydrothermal vents
Writing genetic code like computer code
The World is in a Race
Between implementing ever-increasing ways to
improve the human condition
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and
scale of global problems.
Collective Intelligence can help
Win the Race
Collective Intelligence
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It is an emergent property
from synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts and others with insight
that continually learns from feedback
to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better
decisions
than these elements acting alone.
Each can change the other
The collective
intelligence includes
5 Expert Groups to
support the Situation
Room:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Climate Science
Green Tech
Energy
Policy Integration
Adaptation
www.gccsr.org
Global Climate Change Situation
Current Situation
Desired Situation
393 PPM Atmospheric CO2
Mountain Ice Melting rate
Forecasts temp change range
Country target pledges
Abrupt Climate Change
Policies to address the gap
350-450 PPM Atmospheric CO2
Reduced Mountain Ice Melting rate
Plausible desirable temp change
Required country targets
Carbon Tax
Cap & Trade
Import Tax
Green Growth Technologies to address the gap
Alternative Energy
Alternative Agriculture
Improved Standards
Adaptation to address the forecasts
Resilience Teams
Migration policies
Coastal Evacuation Plans
Work/Life Style Changes
SCANNING
TEMPLATE
RSS FEEDS
WEBSITES
FUTURE WHEELS
CLOUDS
DRUPAL
SHELL
PUBLIC & EXPERT
WIKI
COHERE (IMPORTS
COMPENDIUM)
REAL-TIME DELPHI
FEDERATION
SERVER
GLOBAL FEDERATION
SERVER
HARDWARE/
SOFTWARE
ENVIRONMENT
ENERGY
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HEALTH
GROUPS OF
EXPERTS
DATA/
INFORMATION/
KNOWLEDGE
COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE
SYSTEM FOR PMO’S EWS of Kuwait
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EXPERT JUDGMENTS
SIMULATIONS/ MODELS
BRIEFING SHEETS
ISSUES OVERVIEWS
CONTENT ASSESSED BY EWS STAFF;
(RSS FEEDS, WEBSITES, ETC).
Some Suggestions
• Create a climate change collective intelligence system for
DOD’s current and potential adaptation and mitigation (from
Net-Zero to body energy systems)
• R&D initiatives to explore to further sustainability
• Meat without growing animals
• Saltwater agriculture to reduce fresh water demand
• Solar power satellite and wireless transmission
• Peace Agreements should consider environment and
resources
• Improve harmonization of nanosensor networks and
“spiderbots” (bio, chemical, nuclear, etc. sensors) with
international counterparts
• Improve international training and cooperation for resilience
for large-scale complex disasters (pandemics, floods,
hurricanes, famine, failed states, etc.)
1/11/11 Chinese President Hu Jintao in meeting
with Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged the
two militaries to deepen strategic trust.
Environmental Security should be a major focus
of that strategic trust.
China’s Instability Factors
1. China’s water pollution, falling water tables,
and receding Himalayan snow caps
2. Energy supply and distribution
3. Rich/poor urban/rural gap protests
4. Conflicts with Muslim secessionists in the oil
northwest
• 1-4 increase instability, slow China’s economic
growth making it unable to keep employment
growth which affects stability
Some Conclusions
• We are not yet winning the battle for
environmental security
• “Business-as-usual” is an environmental
security threat
• There are many options to improve our
environmental security
• Environmental security should be a major
focus of US-China strategic trust. (US-China
agreement to create a joint program to address climate
change).
For further information
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
[email protected]
www.StateoftheFuture.org