Transcript Group 4
A process for resolving conflicts within water-food-energy systems stressed by climate change Group 4. The NCAR Nexuses Context Biofuels Fertilizers, processing, harvesting Aims • Create a robust framework for coming to agreements within water-food-energy systems stressed by climate change • Apply this framework to two contrasting States: – California (US) and – Gujarat (India) • The framework is intended to be a high level guidance document for policy makers at State level. Decision Support Framework: Structured Decision Making Clarify the decision context Implement & Monitor Define Objectives & Measures Evaluate Trade Offs Among Alternatives Create Alternatives Estimate Consequences of Alternatives Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Applying the framework to California, US Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context Context California Societal Expectation of clean water, inexpensive food, & reliable energy Create Alternatives Complex legal system of historical water rights and regional water departments. Water restrictions due to environmental conservation. Climate Mediterranean climate allows for year-round production. However, there is significant year-to-year variability in rainfall and CA is frequently impacted by drought. Temperatures projected to increase – less snowfall, more snowmelt, higher evapotranspiration Economic Major agricultural state - generates $42.6 billion per year (2012) Agricultural sector accounts for approximately 77% of freshwater use Movement toward alternative fuel sources (including hydroelectric) Resource Water sources vary widely across the state - mainly from Sierra’s and Rockies via snow melt & reservoir storage Institutional Majority small family farms that grow high value specialty crops Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Stakeholders Implement and monitor Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context Create Alternatives Water Energy Food Objectives Reliably provide clean, affordable water under environmental constraints Provide reliable, affordable energy for residential and commercial use Frequency of brownouts, $/kWh, tons of carbon emitted Measures Water quality, $/gallon, groundwater & reservoir levels Maintain or increase agricultural productivity ($$) while improving sustainability of agricultural production Annual agricultural exports and profit, acres under cultivation, groundwater levels, freshwater withdrawals, environmental quality of agricultural waste water, farmer autonomy Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context • Consult with stakeholders • Consult with experts • Consider previous plans • Research plans in similar locations • Use online tools (e.g., wefnexustool.org Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Create Alternatives Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Water Increase water use efficiency More efficient irrigation techniques via technology and reservoir regulation Bring freshwater withdrawals in line with supply Increase groundwater banking Energy Increase alternative energy production and decarbonize the energy system with decadal targets Improve energy efficiency with decadal targets Reduce groundwater pumping during peak energy use periods Incentivize energy-efficient building practices Food Incorporate seasonal forecasts to inform crop rotation strategies Use lower-water crops (GMOs) Stopping production of high-water use crops (alfalfa) Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Develop an integrated assessment model to test alternative strategies: o Example: Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) & Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) (David Yates @NCAR) o Returns decision relevant variables. LEAP + WEAP for the WFE Nexus o Can perform tests such as “cost-benefit” analysis o Test “non-linear” impacts of combined alternative choices. Actual hydropower generation & available cooling water. Water sector energy requirements Water sufficiency and hydropower generation Energy demand Water Supply Water Demand Energy Demand Energy Supply Water requirements for hydropower & thermal cooling Source: Kemp-Benedict (2014) Stockholm Environment Institute Implement and monitor Assumptions on hydropower & fossil generation Hydropower energy & cooling water requirements Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Water Increase groundwater banking Long term payoff, short term expense Creates buffer for drought years Economic loss Stress agricultural system during a wet year Very expensive (pay to pump twice) Energy Reduce groundwater pumping during peak energy use periods Reduce cost of water for irrigation More efficient water use Less autonomy for farmers Food Stopping production of high-water use crops (alfalfa) Economic loss Less autonomy for farmers Increase in groundwater Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Thought Example: Alternative: Decarbonize the energy system by increasing hydroelectric power generation. Positive: Increase sustainable energy supply, reduce GHG emissions. Less water going to cool power plants, better for environmental systems. Tradeoff: During drought, hydroelectric power production will decrease. This will stress the energy grid and create tension over water between the energy sector and agriculture sector. CA may not be able to meet GHG emission standards to meet energy and agricultural needs during drought conditions. Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives This step requires significant input from stakeholders. With stakeholders, identify what to monitor, where to monitor, who pays for monitoring, reporting methods and frequency: Monitoring and evaluation would be carried out by: state agencies for water management, energy, and agriculture. community-based organizations energy companies Department of Natural Resources operations local water districts agricultural organizations Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Applying the framework to Gujarat, India Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Growth in agricultural groundwater use in selected countries Source: Shah et al (2007) Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Case study region: Why North-West India? Source: Planning Commission (2007) Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context Create Alternatives Case study region: Net vs. Gross sown area in Punjab Source: Indian Agricultural Statistics Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Case study region: Net irrigated area in Punjab Source: Indian Agricultural Statistics Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives Case study: Energy for Irrigation Pumping - India vs. Gujarat Elec (GWh/yr) GIA (Kha) NIA (kha) kWh/ha (G) kWh/ha (N) INDIA 99,000 82,000 60,000 1200 1600 GUJARAT 6,000 730 570 8,000 10,000 Source: Columbia Water Centre Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context Create Alternatives IDENTIFYING STAKEHOLDERS • Snowball method • In Gujarat • Government • Agriculture and Cooperation Department • Energy and Petrochemicals Department • Narmada and Water Resources • Water Supply and Kalpsar Department • Local community/governments • Non-government • Farmers and Agribusiness e.g. FieldFresh • Power companies • Owners/representatives from local factories Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context Create Alternatives OBJECTIVES • Have adequate and sustainable supply of water, food, and energy for the different sectors in the region at an affordable price and of good quality • Ensure employment and economic development for the region • Reduce risk to climate variability and change • (Reduce amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the energy use in the region) Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Define Objectives and measures Clarify the Decision context Create Alternatives MEASURES • Water • Volume of water used by each sector per given time period • Price per liter of water • Chemical concentrations • Food • Calorie intake per person • Variety of food available • Energy and Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) • Measure kWh supplied to each sector • Reliability of energy supply • Atmospheric concentrations of GHG • Amount spent by government on energy subsidies • Employment and Economic Development • Income (or proxies for income) Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives • Increase efficiency • Train farmers on better agricultural practices (e.g. choice of crops, spacing, drip-irrigation, monitor soil moisture to inform irrigation timing, use of fertilizer) • Implement climate and market monitoring and seasonal forecasting systems • Use economic incentives to reward efficiency • Reduce risks to climate variability and change • Community supported agriculture • Define protocols to allocate water resources in the face of a drought Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives • Train farmers on better agricultural practices • Reduced chemical concentrations in runoff • Reduced water wastage/increased efficiency • Use a land-surface model • Implement seasonal climate and markets monitoring and forecasting • Reduced impacts of droughts on crop yields • Higher income for farmers • Use land-surface model forced by an established global climate forecast system (e.g. CFSv2) • Use Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) Framework Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives • Train farmers on better agricultural practices • Water efficiency techniques in the agricultural sector will also reduce energy consumption and GHGs • Requires cooperation and commitment by farmers • Implement seasonal climate and markets monitoring and forecasting • Improved resource management • Can be used by stakeholders across sectors Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Clarify the Decision context Define Objectives and measures Create Alternatives • Use monthly historical data as baseline to evaluate • Economic gains • Water and energy savings • Food production • Monitoring • Frequency: monthly • Commitment horizon • Methods • Community-based • State-level government agencies Implement and monitor Evaluate Trade Offs Estimate Consequences Discussion Is the framework portable across contexts? Is the framework a useful way to address uncertainties? How does the framework bring in climate change along with other drivers of change? Thanks for listening!