Transcript Climate System Observations and Prediction Experiment (COPE)

Climate System Observations
and Prediction Experiment
(COPE)
Task Force for Seasonal
Prediction
Climate Observation and
Prediction of the Earth System
(COPES)
Task Force for Seasonal
Prediction
Scientific Direction and
Structure of WCRP
• Determine to What Extent Climate can be
Predicted
• Determine the Extent of Man’s Influence on
Climate
• WCRP Activities will Lead to the Prediction of
the Total Physical Climate System Including
an Assessment of What is and What is not
Predictable
• Four Major Programs
– CLIVAR: Ocean in Climate
– GEWEX: Water Cycle and Energy
– CliC: Cryosphere in Climate
– SPARC: Stratosphere in Climate
• Two Major Modeling Activities
– WGNE: Working Group on Numerical
Experimentation
– WGCM: Working Group on Coupled
Modeling
Climate System Observations and
Prediction Experiment (COPE)
• Seamless Prediction of the Total Physical
Climate System from Weeks Through Decades
• Synthesizes Ongoing Observational and
Modeling Activities of the all Relevant WCRP
Components
• Three Central Themes:
– Describe Structure and Variability of the Total Climate
System Through Modeling and Observational Studies
– Assess the Predictability of the Total Climate System
by Making Predictions
– Understand Mechanisms and Uncertainty of Regional
Climate Change Prediction
Task Force on Seasonal Prediction
(Draft ToR)
• Determine the Extent to which Seasonal
Prediction of the Global Climate System is
Possible with Currently Available Models and
Data
• Identify the Current Limitations of the Climate
System Model and Observational Data Sets
Used to Determine Seasonal Predictability
• Develop a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP
Climate System Retrospective Seasonal
Forecasting Experiments
• Report to the JSC in March 2004
The Workshop
(Honolulu, November 2003)
• Develop a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP
Climate System Retrospective Seasonal
Forecasting Experiments
– Participation Across all of WCRP
• Contributes to “Seamless Weekly-to-Decadal” COPE
Modeling/Prediction Activities
– Plan to Emphasize Synsthesis of WCRP Programs
• Need to Include Effects of a Changing Climate
– Science Development with Programs
• Write Draft Plan at Workshop – No Homework
Hypothesis
• There is currently untapped seasonal
predictability due to interactions (and
memory) among all the elements of the
climate system (StratosphereTroposphere-Ocean-Land-Ice)
Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice
Prediction Experiment
• Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization
of all the Components of Climate System
• Six Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully
Interactive Predictions of the Climate System
– Predictions Initialized Each Month of Each Year 1979Present
• Interactive Model:
– Ocean – Open but interactive (e.g., slab mixed layer or
GCM)
– Atmosphere – Open but interactive, most likely a GCM
– Land – Open but interactive, e.g. SSiB, Mosaic, BATS,
CLM, Bucket …
– Ice – Open but interactive (e.g., thermodynamic or
dynamic)
Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice
Prediction Experiment
• Predictability Diagnostic (Example)
– Limit of Predictability when the Forecast
Ensemble Distribution same as Model
Climate Distribution
Free Running
Model PDF
t=limit of Predictability?
Initial Condition
(t=0) PDF
Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice
Prediction Experiment
• ENSO Mechanism Diagnostic (Example)
– Recharge Oscillator vs. Delayed Oscillator
– Role of Westerly Wind Bursts/Stochastic Forcing
• Impact of AO on Seasonal Predictability
• Regional Predictability
–
–
–
–
Local Land Surface Predictability
Extreme Events
Monsoons
Diurnal Cycle
• Coupled Feedbacks
– Intraseasonal Variability
• Diagnostic Project Process
Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice
Prediction Experiment
• GEWEX:
– Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Land Surface
– Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical
Experiments
• CliC:
– Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Cryosphere
– Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical
Experiments
• CLIVAR:
– Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Ocean
– Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical
Experiments
• SPARC:
– Provides Guidance on How to Prescribe Atmospheric
Composition
– Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Stratosphere
– Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical
Experiments
End of “Official” COPE/S-I Presentation
COPE Task Force for Seasonal
Prediction
• Develop a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP
Climate System Retrospective Seasonal Attendance:
•1 CliC
Forecasting Experiments
•1 SPARC
– Participation Across all of WCRP
• Contributes to “Seamless Weekly-to-Decadal” COPE
Modeling/Prediction Activities
•2 GEWEX
•14 CLIVAR
– Plan to Emphasize Synsthesis of WCRP Programs
• Need to Include Effects of a Changing Climate
– Science Development with Programs
• Write Draft Plan at Workshop – No Homework
Held with the CLIVAR
Working Group on
Seasonal-Interannual
Prediction (WGSIP)
Elements of the Agenda
Current Status of Seasonal Prediction (S. Mason and S. Zebiak)
Role of Oceans in Seasonal Prediction (CLIVAR)
Atlantic Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (S.-P. Xie)
Pacific Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (A. Rosati)
Indian Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (N. H. Saji)
Role of Cryosphere in Seasonal Prediction (CliC; J. H. Christensen)
Seasonal Prediction at Meteo France (M. Deque)
Seasonal Prediction in China (D. Yihui)
NCEP Coupled Predictions and Assimilation (S. Nadiga)
ECMWF Ensemble Prediction (R. Hagedorn)
Seasonal Predictability of SMIP and SMIP/HFP (I.-S. Kang)
Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts and Predictability (M. Sugi)
Role of Land Surface in Seasonal Prediction (GEWEX; R. Koster and P. Dirmeyer)
Impact of Soil Moisture on Seasonal Prediction (V. Kattsov)
Role of Stratospheric Processes in Seasonal Prediction (SPARC; M. Baldwin)
The Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C; J. Kinter)
Discussion on Seasonal Prediction in a Changing Climate
(Plenary Discussion)
Developing a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Seasonal Prediction
Impressions
• Many in CLIVAR see this COPES S-I proposal
as superfluous – a variant on existing projects
(e.g., SMIP, DEMETER, PROMISE…).
• Proposers of COPES see CLIVAR as unable
and ill-suited to bridge across WCRP projects.
• COPES is proposed as the synthesis
mechanism for WCRP, and the S-I project would
bring together these parallel modeling efforts.
Note: There exist other components to COPES
(e.g., observations, climate change) that are not
represented at this workshop.
CLIVAR 1995 
SPARC 1992
WGNE
WGCM
WGASF
WOCE 1990-2002
TOGA
1985-1994
GEWEX 1988 
ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 
CLIVAR’s Ptolemaic view of the Universe?
WGCM
WGASF
WGNE
COPErnican Universe?
COPES