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Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? Graeme I Pearman Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Monash University Board, The Climate Institute, START International Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? September 20, 2010 Aust. Inst. Physics/Roy. Aust. Chemical Inst. Climate Change: Spreading the GOOD News The climate change issue Aspirations Energy supply/demand Efficiency Energy demand GDP Choice of technology Climate system Climate impacts Climate change Emissions Human health The climate change issue Aspirations Energy supply/demand Efficiency Energy demand GDP Culture, education, advertising, promotions Climate impacts Climate change Emissions Choice of technology Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of: • Wellbeing • Success Climate system • Vested interests • Natural resources • Ignorance • Market failure Human health • Risk assessment • Beliefs • Ignorance • Sectoral interests What is possible? What we know and don’t know is based on: • Principles of physics and fluid dynamics – Greenhouse gases impact global temperature known for 120 years • Observed change - distant past – We can not take climate stability for granted • Observed change - recent past – Warming has occurred with associated changes to biology, water availability, etc. • Anticipated future climate change – Unless emissions are reduced, warming will continue • Anticipated impacts – On all sectors of the society, but unevenly spread • Uncertainty – Remains and this will always be so Key questions to be addressed • What is climate change? – The change to the long-term weather due to greenhouse gases • Has the Earth’ climate changed in the past? – Yes, “enormously” through geologic times • Has the climate changed recently? – Yes, the atmosphere and oceans have warned globally and in Australia • Are humans the cause? – Our use of energy is increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and this is very likely the reason for recent warming Key questions to be addressed • What will happen into the future? – Depends on how much more we emit these gases • What are the consequences? – It will have significant impact on society and the environment • How do we deal with the uncertainties of the science? – We weigh the probability of the scientific projections being correct against the impact if they are – But this challenges many who wish perfect anticipation of the future Global surface temperature change relative to 1951-1980 mean Hanson et al. (2010) Trend in sea surface temperature, 1970-2009 (oC/10 years) http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements Contributed 0.6 mm/year sea level rise Greenland Ice Sheet Contributed 0.4 mm/year sea level rise Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009. Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements Change in mean sea level (mm) 40 20 0 -20 http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94. It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate Australian Bureau of Meteorology + 1.0 + 0.4 0.0 0.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 1920 1940 1960 1980 Timbal et al. (2009): South eastern Australian Climate Initiative Temperature (oC) Pressure (hPa) Long-term changes of the intensity (pressure ) of the Autumn-Winter subtropical ridge and global average temperature Planetary biology is changing E.g. For south-eastern Australia marine fish • “dramatic” warming of the ocean observed • 45 species of fish exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr. Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? • What is it about us that causes this issue? Emissions are on the high side of projections Dec. 02, 2009 Le Quéré et al. (2009). National anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases Mt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2009 Australia Canada China France Germany Italy Indonesia Japan Russia United Kingdom United States 549 732 7219 550 977 566 594 1343 1960 665 6964 World Resources Institute (2009) Emissions Per Person Cost curve to reduce emissions by 249 Mt CO2e by 2020 Power Industry Transport Cost to society A$/tCO2e 200 Commercial retrofit energy waste reduction Solar PV (centralised) Reduced deforestation and regrowth clearing Commercial retrofit HVAC Cropland carbon sequestration Coal CCS new build Wind offshore Residential appliances and electronics Reforestation of marginal land Degraded farmland restoration with environmental forest Mining energy efficiency Solar thermal Residential lighting 100 Gas CCS new build Cement clinker substitution by slag Other industry energy efficiency Buildings Forestry Agriculture Coal CCS new build with EOR Residential new builds Commercial retrofit lighting Capital improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency Commercial elevators and appliances Commercial new builds Commercial retrofit insulation 0 Anti-methanogenic treatments Pasture and grassland management Onshore wind (marginal locations) Aluminium energy efficiency Mining VAM oxidation Reforestation of marginal land with timber plantation Biomass co-firing Coal to gas shift (increased gas utilisation) Active livestock feeding Operational improvements to existing coal plant thermal efficiency -100 Geothermal Improved forest management Reduced T&D losses Petroleum and gas maintenance Biomass/biogas Cogeneration Coal to gas shift (gas new build) Commercial retrofit water heating Onshore wind (best locations) Petrol car and light commercial efficiency improvement -200 Chemicals processes and fuel shift Reduced cropland soil emissions Strategic reforestation of non-marginal land with environmental forest Diesel car and light commercial efficiency improvement Operational improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency 0 50 SOURCE: ClimateWorks, Monash 100 150 200 250 Emissions reduction potential Mt per year E.g. The energy sector • Particularly impacted by emissions reduction efforts – Taxes, trading schemes, energy efficiency, alternative energy sources • Weighed against expense to agriculture, water sector, natural environment, tourism, national or regional security, etc. • Need for more holistic options whereby interests of any one sector/nation do not: – Dominate policy development or the availability of information Future motor vehicle fuel security Threat of conflict 1. Fuel security Increased global demand-Falling availability Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Limited suppliespeak oil 3. Carbon dioxide Oil Imports 2. Balance of payments Rapidly diminishing national production Emissions 4. Pollutants Rising costs 5. Rising demand Affluence Motor vehicle fuels and technologies Population Biofuels Energy efficiency targets Renewable energy targets Human health Food, water Employment Social coherence Notional futures of oil for car transport August 07, 2010 22, 2010 Jamison (2009) Carbon dioxide emissions under notional futures for Australian car transport CO2 emissions, (TgCO2 or Mt CO2) 60 CO2 emissions with business as usual 40 Intervention but brown coal electricity generation Intervention but black coal electricity 20 With intervention (renewable electricity) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Pearman et al. (2009) http://www.mynrma.com.au/cps/rde/xbcr/mynrma/Jamison-Group-Fuelling-Future-PassengerVehicle-Use-in-Australia-February2010.pdf?cpssessionid=SID-34E2763C-9A249675 Energy options, the rush is on: Energy efficiency strategies • Reducing the reliance on energy for production, transportation and storage • Resources use and recovery • Mitigation is an urgent/essential response but needs to: – Consider many options: uncertainties surround all optionseconomics, technologies, rate of implementation, societal and environmental issues: Deliver resilience • “….the problem is driven not by fundamental human needs, but by manipulated wants that find expression in consumerism” McIntosh (2008): Hell and High Water: Climate Change, Hope and the Human Condition Affluenza • “The bloated, sluggish unfulfilled feeling that results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses” • “An epidemic of stress, overwork, waste and indebtedness caused by dogged pursuits of the Australian dream” • “An unsustainable addiction to economic growth” • “a condition in which we are confused about what it takes to live a worthwhile life” Hamilton and Denniss (2005): Affluence: When too much is never enough Messages about sustainability The climate change issue results from: • Our expectations – Culture, history, education, market economy, advertising • Technological innovations • Our choices • Natural resource inheritance Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? • What is it about us that causes this issue? • What is it about us that makes it hard to respond? Magnitude/sensitivity to change Probability of change Mitigate SocioEconomic capacity Potential Exposure Risk Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity Willingness to adapt Vulnerability Managed adaptation Resilience Strategy How well do we assess risk? • There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747 – How many could be removed or rendered inoperable before you would decide not to fly? • IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a warming of 1.5-2.5oC – There has been virtually no media or public attention to this risk • What are the consequences of inoperable ecosystems? 7 6 5 Coping Range Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability 450 2050 2100 Equil 2100 Equil 2050 2050 2100 Equil 550 750 2100 22 C 2050 Natural Ecosystems Food Security Agriculture and Forestry Tourism Heat related deaths Major Infrastructure Energy Security Coastal Communities 4 Water availability oC 3 2 1 Ref Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report • Science pursues “truth” and thus is typically lagging, searching for certainty • In contrast, risk management is pragmatic and proactive stance (leading approach) aimed at balancing the probabilities of an event occurring against its potential impact • This disparity often leads the general community to underestimate the practical risks implicated by scientific conclusions Pearman and Härtel (2009) Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems Emotional responses Threat Coping mechanisms Anxious Minimising Scared Denying Sad Avoiding Depressed Scepticism Numb Desensitises Helpless Depend on others Hopeless Resigned Frustrated Cynical Angry Fed up Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/ Assumption about rationality Common assumptions • People are essentially rational • Rationality is conscious (we choose) • Denial is a kind of irrationality • Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information Alternative assumptions • What is rational in one context may be irrational in another • Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious • Every rationality is guided by emotion De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC Fien et al. (2008): personal communication • Standard economics: Assumes “…all human decisions are rational and informed..” • Behavioural economics: “ …people are susceptible to irrelevant influences …emotions, short-sightedness” Ariely (2009): Predictably Irrational • Now Identity Economics “Peoples identity defines who they are..(and this) influences their decisions..” Akerlof and Kranton (2010): Identity economics Leadership • At all levels: Government Federal, State and Local, UK, bi-lateral, you • Industry: – “Look beyond coal, big miner says” – “a clear price on energy” – “Failure to do so will place us at a competitive disadvantage. • BHP Billiton Marius Kloppers CEO • The Age, September 16, 2010 • You, at home, work, in the community September 16, 2010 Probis Club of Melbourne Human dimensions of What is Possible? • Capturing of advice – Role of science, media, education • Nature of scepticism – Experiential versus observational/theoretical views – Scepticism as a tool or a crutch • Formulation of attitudes – Perception of success – Belief/value structures, religion, cultural, ethos of sustainability Based on Härtel and • Basic belief structures – – – – – Pearman (2010) Conservatisms, consumerism and competition Vested interests Managing risk Perception of risk and probabilities, response to threat Role of companies, governments and the individual Change Management Engineer/physical scientist Focus Processes, systems Psychologists/social scientist People Business practices Starting point BPR, TQM, ISO9000, Human resources, OD quality Business issues or Personal change, opportunities employee resistance (or potential for it) Measure of Metrics of business Job satisfaction, success performance, turnover, productivity financial/statistical loss Perspective “Shoot the “Help individuals make on change stragglers, carry the sense of what change wounded” means to them” Based on Hiatt (http://www.change-management.com/tutorial-definition-history.htm Human dimensions of What is Acceptable? • Dealing with uncertainty and probability – Weighing probabilities, reality and the non-reality world – Acceptance of change versus protection of status quo • Risk assessment – Capturing opportunities, reluctance to act/change – Concerns/perceived responsibilities for culture and environment • Sharing responsibility – – – – Government and/or personal or corporate responsibilities Behavioural and/or institutional change Technologies and/or behavioural change Mitigation and/or adaptation • Perceptions of danger – Value of present and/or future – Perceived values of biodiversity Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010) • Personal responsibility and empowerment – Given “rights”, cultural connections, loss of identity and place – Strategic-ness versus conservativeness Human dimensions of What is Equitable? • Recognising personal/regional differences in: – Exposure, capacity to adapt mitigate & fund responses – Understanding/awareness of CC & available options – Matching differential exposure to aspirational needs of the wider community • Responding with – – – – – Formal, workforce and public education Improved/new management and energy practices Balance across all sectors and jurisdictions Changes to personal lifestyles and expectations Protections in transition for exposed sectors/persons Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010) Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction Social evolution Success Environment Technological opportunities Social institutions Diversity Biological evolution Success Time Time/selection No relation to where the future might best be Convergence Dominant view of society Alternative view of society Productivity Nourishment, shelter Profit Fulfilment Power Sustainability, maintenance More (no limit) Enough (limit) Growth Balance Competition Cooperation Centralisation Decentralisation Non-renewable resources Wasted, exhausted Limited, prioritised users Renewable resources The Human Condition Degraded Require balance management Stressed Joyful Detached Integrated Degenerating Evolving Goals Objective Means Hill (2006 p8): What Are Rational Goals For Development? Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? • What is the climate change issue? • What is it about us that causes this issue? • What is it about us that makes it hard to respond? • Conclusions Messages about sustainability Solutions to the climate change issue depend on: • Acceptance that we will not know all that we would like to know before action is necessary – We have to manage the risk • We need to challenge the largely unconscious drivers of our behaviour, institutions and society – Commercialism – Advertising – Non-strategic social evolution Things to do • Understand your “energy” and “water” footprints –How much you use –From what activities –With what flexibility –It is empowering- you have personal options then • Set targets of reduction –Monitor power, gas and petroleum bills –Assess $ and carbon savings –Reward success •Your kids •Your employees –Be educated/equipped to make better purchases • Tell others –Especially local and regional Governments –Your teacher, parents, boss • Above all, examine what it is that is really important Climate change: A most challenging issue • Diabolical because it is: – – – – – Uncertain in its format and extent Insidious rather than (as yet) confrontational Long-term rather than immediate International as well as national Dangerous in the absence of effective mitigation • It results from the very way we are as individuals and the way our societies have evolved – Our aspirations and energy demands – Concepts of what represents ‘success’ and ‘happiness’ – Institutional frameworks that influence conformity and community-wide values • Solutions depend on changes that potentially threaten those aspirations, belief systems and attitudes