Transcript Cultivating Food Security

Cultivating Food
Security
State of the World
Worldwatch Institute
Security
What forces are changing food security
today and in the future?
Commonly perceived threats include—
water and land resources, population
growth and social disruption
© Digital Vision
New emerging threats include—
disease, climate change, diversity loss
and bio-terror
© USDA
Commonly Perceived Threats
•
•
•
•
•
Water availability
Land distribution
Environmental degradation
Human population growth
Social disruption
© Digital Vision
Water
– Falling water tables
– Droughts
– Diversion for urban
needs and power
generation
– Pollution
© Photos/Digital Vision
Water
Agriculture accounts for 70% of global water use
and as much as 90% in many developing countries
Cubic Kilometers
4,000
Agricultural
Industrial
Municipal
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
Source: Shiklomanov
1980
2000
Land Availability and
Environmental Degradation
80% of arable land
worldwide has lost
productivity because
of soil degradation
© USDA
Population
What can we expect as the world population
grows to over 7 billion people?
8
Billion people
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Social Disruption
Conflicts often result in cross-border
migrations, lost harvests, and
infrastructure collapse—disrupting
food security
© IRIN
Number
80
60
Wars
Wars and Armed Conflicts
40
20
Source: AKUF
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Emerging Security Threats
•
•
•
•
•
Loss of agricultural diversity
Emergence of new diseases
Food borne illnesses
Food bio-terror
Climate change
© WHO
Diversity
What does diversity provide?
• Genetic information and options
• Resilience by spreading risks
across a range of species
• A varied diet and nutrients
© USDA
© Corbin
Plant Diversity
• 7,000 plants are used
for human consumption
• 200 are domesticated
• 12 contribute 75% of
global intake of plantderived calories
© FAO
Meat Diversity
© USDA
© Digital Vision
– 95% of world consumption of livestock
protein is from pigs, poultry, and cattle
– There are about 1,000 commercial fish
species, but in aquaculture fewer than 10
species dominate global production
© USDA
Diversity & Industrial
Agriculture
How has industrial agriculture affected
diversity?
• New commercial varieties are
replacing traditional, highly variable
farmer varieties
© US/ARS
• Vital traditional knowledge about
production and adaptation of
traditional varieties is disappearing
Diversity—What’s Been Lost?
FAO estimates that 75% of agricultural
diversity was lost during the 20th century
• In 50 years, wheat
cultivars in China dropped
from 10,000 to 1,000
• 90% of cabbage, maize
and pea varieties no
longer exist
• 30% of livestock breeds
risk extinction
© FAO
© CGIAR
GMOs
What are Genetically Modified Organisms
(GMOs) in agriculture?
Plant, animal, and microbial cells are genetically
engineered to create specific characteristics such
as pest resistance, herbicide resistance,
increased milk production, increased shelf life of
vegetables, and new plants and livestock for
specific environments.
GMO Technology
What are common GMOs in the food
supply?
• Herbicide and pest resistant
crops like Roundup Ready
soybeans
• BST an engineered hormone
used to increase milk yields in
dairy cows
• Tomato genes engineered for
disease resistance and long
shelf life
© USDA
GMO Risk Factors
What are some of the major GMO risk
factors?
• Contamination of Wild Species
– Foreign gene sequences pose unknown risks
from cross pollination between conventional
crops and their wild relatives
• Trojan Gene Effect
– An invaded wild population perishes because of
the spread of transgenic organisms
• Pharm Crops
– Insertion of genes into plants to create drugs and
industrial chemicals poses risk of genes finding
a way from pharm crops into food crops
GMOs on a Global Scale
Global Area Planted to Transgenic Crop, 1996-2003
Million Hectares
80
60
40
20
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: ISAAA
2001
2002
2003
GMOs and Hunger
Can biotechnology and GMOs solve world
hunger?
Some agricultural scientists hope that GMOs will
produce higher than usual yields with less inputs,
better yields in a wider range of environments,
and more nutritious products
BUT
Hunger is caused by inequalities in purchasing
power and the lack of access to land and
resources rather than a global shortage of food
Diversity & Food Security
What do we risk if agricultural diversity is
lost?
• Future options are narrowed due to
loss of genetic material
• Increased susceptibility to disease and
pests because of mono-cropping and a
limited number of high-producing
livestock breeds
• Loss of self-sufficiency among farmers
on marginal lands who rely on crop
diversity to maintain local food
production
© USDA
Emerging Diseases
The nature of diseases affecting crops and
livestock have changed within the last
century
•
•
•
•
•
Avian flu
Nipah virus
Mad cow disease
Foodborne pathogens
AIDS/HIV in humans
© Photos/EBI bioinformatics
Avian Influenza
• 6 billion birds are raised
for food in East and SE
Asia
• More than 140 million
birds in Asia were killed
to control the avian virus
• Avian flu jumped the
species barrier in 1997
and a virulent strain
killed 30 people
• The virus is spreading to
other regions of the
world
Avian Flu & Security
• Concentration of animals in factory
farms and genetic uniformity of
livestock may have facilitated the
emergence of the virus
• Current recommendations to restrict
free-range poultry could drive
thousands of small producers out of
business and eliminate traditional
means of food production
© FAO
© USDA
Nipah virus
Nipah is a zoonose – a disease that jumps from
animals to humans
– Nipah was first discovered in 1997 at a massive
Malaysian pig farm
– Origin of virus may have been fruit bats fleeing forest
fires in Indonesia and settling in trees over large pig
farms
– 100 people died in Malaysia in 1997 and Nipah struck
in Bangladesh in 2004 killing 74% of its victims
© USDA
Nipah Virus
Scientists predict that as industrial
agriculture continues to move into tropical
environments, the risk of Nipah-like
viruses and other diseases that can jump
the species barrier will grow.
© USDA
Mad Cow Disease
BSE (Bovine spongiform encephalopathy) or
Mad Cow Disease is caused by prions that
destroy proteins in brain tissue
• BSE is spread by the recycling of
animal protein and bone meal into
livestock feed
• Humans can contract CreutzfeldtJakob disease from eating infected
meat
• Many countries lack the necessary
regulations and political will to prevent
the disease
© USDA
BSE & Security
• Since 1986 BSE has been found in at least 34
countries
• The first case of BSE in the U.S. was discovered in
2003
• In Italy a new form of BSE (BASE) appeared in cows
showing no symptoms
HIV/AIDS
• In 2004, nearly 78 million people were HIV infected
• AIDS is the leading cause of death worldwide for people
ages 15 to 49
100
Millions
80
AIDS Deaths
60
40
20
HIV Infections
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: UNAIDS
HIV/AIDS
• The seven most seriously AIDS-affected
countries—all in sub-Saharan Africa—now lose
as much as 10-18 percent of their working-age
adults every five years, mainly to this disease.
• What does this mean for food security?
• Loss of knowledge and skills in traditional
farming systems
• Loss of work force with no one available to
plant, tend and harvest food
Foodborne illnesses
Foodborne illnesses are the most common
health problem worldwide
– WHO reports episodes could be 300-350 time
more frequent that reported
What contributes to the spread of these
illnesses?
Foodborne illnesses
• Concentration of processing and transport
– 44 million cattle, sheep and pigs are traded
worldwide each year
– Transport of cattle from feed yards to
slaughterhouses increases prevalence of salmonella
• Antibiotic misuse
– Residues from antibiotics used on livestock end up
in food and the environment leading to antibiotic
resistance in humans and animals
• Factory farms
– Crowded and unsanitary conditions exacerbate rapid
movement of diseases such as E. coli
Factory Farms
• 43% of global meat production
occurs on factory farms
• Factory farms are spreading to
developing countries
© D. Nierenberg
Factory farms create a variety of
problems
– Contamination
– Concentration
– Cheap meat
© D. Nierenberg
Bioterror
What could be targets for
bioterrorists?
• Livestock industry
• Transportation and
movement
• Processed food
distribution
• Lack of safety
regulations
• Global trade
© USDA
© USDA
Bioterror
Has a bioterror attack already occurred
in the US?
– 1984 Oregon
religious cult spiked
restaurant salad bars
with Salmonellae
© Stock.xchng
Climate Change
Climate changes can impact temperatures,
precipitation and weather events which can in
turn impact:
• Rainfall, drought, storms
• Crop growth and yields
• Irrigation demands
• Pests and disease
• Pollination
© Digital Vision
Climate Change
Average Change in Global Temperature
14.8
14.6
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
13.4
13.2
13.0
Degrees Celsius
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Climate Instability
Temperature instability and food production:
• More extreme swings in climate are predicted—dry
to wet, hot to cold
• Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days
• Higher minimum temperature and fewer cold days
• More variable and extreme rainfall events, floods,
and storms
• Increased summer drying and associated risk of
drought in continental interiors
Temperature Shifts
Temperature Shifts
• Rice, wheat and maize
– Grain yields are likely to decline 10% for every one
degree (Celsius) increase over 30 years
• Pollination
– CO2 and increased temperature may promote lush
growth but are deadly at the pollination stage
reducing some yields by 30%
• Disease
– Warm wet weather promotes diseases like blight
• Pests
– Pests survive warmer winters and a longer growing
seasons mean increased incidence of pest attacks
Developing Countries
Climate change will hit farmers in developing
countries the hardest
• farmers in the tropics are already near the
temperature limits for most major crops
• these farmers have less money, more limited
irrigation technology and no weather tracking
systems
• crop failures push many farmers off the land and into
cities
Climate & Security
Climate change scenarios:
• Anarchy as countries defend and secure dwindling food
and water supplies
• Warming and ice cap melting could disrupt oceanic heat
transfer and plunge N. America and Europe into a miniIce Age
• The sudden change in climate 8,200 years ago that
brought widespread crop failure, famine, disease and
mass migration of populations could be repeated
New Approaches
What can be done to cultivate food security?
• Focus on conceptual and political change in
addition to technological fixes
– International treaties such as:
• Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources
• Treaty on livestock breeds
– International cooperation by health organizations
• WHO and FAO programs that monitor
diseases
Farmer’s Role
• Support and train farmers to:
– Maintain indigenous breeds
– Preserve plant diversity
– Use less energy and encourage self
reliance for fertility inputs
– Develop agroforestry and mixed crop
plantings
© FAO
© FAO
Seed Saving
• Promote seed saving and gene banks
– Today, 1.4 billion people rely on seed saving to
continue farming, this has always been a matter of
survival. The practice of selection by small scale
farmers has created a vast diversity of varieties
© CGIAR
© USDA
© FAO
Gene Banks
Accessions in
Gene Banks
Share of
Landraces
Collected
Wheat
850,000
90
Rice
420,000
90
Corn
262,000
95
Sorghum
168,500
80
Soybeans
176,000
70
Common Beans
268,500
50
Potatoes
31,000
80-90
Cassava
28,000
35
Tomatoes
77,500
90
Squashes, Cucumbers, Gourds
30,000
50
Onions, Garlic
25,000
70
Sugarcane
27,500
70
Cotton
48,500
75
Crop
© Photos/USDA
Choices
Farmers are not the only ones with a stake in a
more secure food system
The public needs to be committed to farms that
can withstand climate change and new
diseases and that yield food that is safe to eat
Worldwatch Institute
Further information and
references for the material in this
presentation are available in the
Worldwatch Institute’s publication
“State of the World 2005”
This presentation is based on Chapter 4
“Cultivating Food Security” authored by:
Danielle Nierenberg and Brian Halweil
www.worldwatch.org