Transcript West London Transport Conference January 2007

Low carbon transport policies for the
UK Phase Two: Policies
Keith Buchan, Director, MTRU
Low carbon transport policies for the UK
Phase Two: Policies
A British Hockey Stick
Central England temperature 10 year moving average
11
degrees C
10
9
8
1782
1802
1822
1842
10 year annual average
1862
1882
Average 1772-1990
1902
1922
1942
Average 1772-2007
1962
1982
2002
Data so urce: hadcet (Hadley Centre)
Chart co pyright M TRU 2008
Three Key Principles
1
2
3
Total emissions in a given period are
what matter - not distant targets
Emissions early in the period are
cheaper to avoid and more damaging –
adding to the need for a rapid start
Land use, transport and choice generate
travel and thus overall emissions
What level of reduction in emissions is really
needed?
Climate Change Bill & five year carbon budgets
250
MtCeq
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5 year period: 1 is 2003-2007
CCBill
Catch up to RCEP
DfT forecast
9
10
Current forecasts
First key findings
Extending current policies, including aggressive
efficiency improvement, will achieve less than 5%
reduction on 1990 levels by 2020
Zero traffic growth plus efficiency improvements will still
not meet the Climate Change Bill targets
Reductions of 15% on today’s traffic levels are required
to catch up with the targets
Examples of the policy approach 1
Ensure continuation and roll out of existing policies:
Examples are:
•
ATM on trunk road network
•
First year charge for vehicles based on efficiency
•
Comprehensive application of Manual for Streets
•
Reform of BSOG
•
Funding of rail capacity improvements & electrification
•
Inclusion of health and climate change objectives for
transport
•
Reform of appraisal to reflect sustainable objectives
Examples of the policy approach 2
Extend existing polices and roll out
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Compliance with speed limits integrated with ATM
Smarter Choices to receive enhanced direct national funding
and support
PPG13 parking standards to be tightened slowly and made
mandatory
London approach to bus tendering rolled out to PTEs then
other urban areas
Spectrum of public transport extended both at low demand
(DRT) and high end (ultra light trams)
Long term commitment to escalator for fuel duty and aviation
duty
Engagement with car users: proportionality and differentiation
of offences
Examples of the policy approach 3
New fiscal approach including:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Taxable benefits system to support smarter choices
Funding for fares simplification and higher revenue support
Slow down of capital expenditure to 2020 in areas of
uncertainty: road and runway capacity
Charges for excess parking (over PPG standards) recycled to
business through lump sum UBR rebate or corporation tax
HGV weight distance charge recycled as above
Duties in excess of current revenue recycled into national
travelcard scheme and annual lump sum rebate
Fuel duty on domestic aviation
New environmental duty on international aviation
Examples of the policy approach 4
Range of other policies including:
•
•
•
•
•
•
New sustainable choice test as part of development planning
Extending car access and reducing multiple household
ownership through car clubs
New and better funded initiatives for walking and cycling in
co-operation with local authorities
Support and training for third sector bus operators and
community transport
Support and training for HGV operators to improve
maintenance and avoid downsizing
Initiative to reduce emissions from maritime freight including
short term bio bunker fuel
Outcomes
Modelling difficult – NTM does not yet include smarter choices and
bus mode is not sensitive to policy changes (in common with
many other models!)
NTS based estimates are possible (NTM is calibrated to NTS in
any case) plus use of standard elasticity values
Realism can be partly assessed by a “back to the future test” –
was there a similar state in the recent past
Comparison to other carbon reduction scenarios for transport and
their policy content
Outcomes for travel – 2020 compared to today
Passenger overview: NTS and NTM
Same number of passenger journeys overall (consistent with NTS
long term data)
Car occupancy does not reduce as NTM predicts but stays as
today
Average passenger journey length falls by about 10% (back to
NTS 1985/86 level) but varies by purpose
NTS background
Figure X: Changes in trip characteristics 1986 to 2006
140
Trips
120
Hours
Miles
Ave speeds
110
Ave trip time
100
20
02
/2
00
4
20
05
/2
00
6
19
96
/1
99
8
19
99
/2
00
1
19
89
/1
99
1
19
92
/1
99
4
90
19
85
/8
6
Percent 1985/86 = 100
130
Passenger modes key outcomes 2020
Indicative only
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
25% more bus travel
15% less car traffic
50% more rail travel
Cycling doubles
Trams and bus transit trebles
30% increase in walking journeys
30% decrease in flights totally within GB
Freight modes outcomes 2020
Indicative only
•
•
•
•
HGV utilisation is restored to the 1990 level
(improves by about 20%)
Rail freight use doubles
HGV fuel efficiency improves by 15%
Haul lengths reduce by 10% through:
Localisation of choice of supplier
Choice of port/airport for freight shippers
which minimises inland transport
More information and draft material on:
www.transportclimate.org