Transcript SWOT” Analysis - Parliament of Canada

Atlantic Agriculture
in a Changing
Climate
David Burton, Ph.D, P.Ag
Climate Change Chair
NSAC
Agriculture in a Changing
Climate
• The Climate Change Issue
– Mitigation of impacts on the atmosphere
– Adapting to changing climatic conditions
• A new “climate” for agriculture
– Increased scrutiny of the impacts of agriculture
on the environment
– Agriculture as industry
• Agriculture a “price-taker”
We Must Mitigate and Adapt
• Must seek to mitigate our impacts on the
atmosphere
– Need to minimize future impacts
– For agriculture there are other environmental benefits
• Will not prevent climate change therefore must
also focus on adaptation
– Agriculture most effected by climate
– Climate variability greatest challenge
“SWOT” Analysis
•
•
•
•
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Strengths
• Diversity
– Mixed farming systems
– Increases economic stability in changing
climate
• Resourcefulness of producer community
– Atlantic producers most highly educated
• 43% have education beyond high school (Aubin et
al., 2003).
Strengths
• Most aware of climate change issue
– Of those aware of climate change issue, 68%
believe producers should take responsibility for
reducing GHG emissions
– Most willing to undertake voluntary action
• Strong linkage to rural community
Weaknesses
• Profit margins
– Small differences between input costs and
returns increases vulnerability
– High debit ratio
• Age of agricultural community
– Average age 53
– 36% intend to retire in next 5 years
– Who will be our future producers?
Weaknesses
• Atlantic agriculture industry 4% of National
– Sufficient support?
• Concentration in agricultural sector
– 23% corporate ownership
• Tools for adaptation
– Currently have few tools identified
– Limited research and extension capacity
Weaknesses
• Producer awareness
– Only 1 in 4 producers aware of climate change
or greenhouse gas issues
• Producer skepticism
– 1/3 of agriculture producers feel their will be no
impact of climate change
Opportunities
• Introduction of new crops to the region
– Increased corn and soybean acreage?
• Improved yields of existing crops
– Longer growing season
– CO2 fertilization
– Warmer temperatures
Bootsma et al., 2001
Bootsma et al., 2001
Shift to Corn-Soybean-Barley
rotation
2050
1995-1998
• Corn
– 2,300 ha @ 5.6 t/ha
– $2.4 Million
• Soybean
– 3,500 ha @ 2.3 t/h
– $2.0 Million
• Barley
– 55,000 ha @ 3 t/ha
– $23 Million
• $27.4 Million
• Corn
– 30,000 ha @ 7 t/ha
– $39 Million
• Soybean
– 20,000 ha @ 3.0 t/ha
– $20 Million
• Barley
– 25,000ha @ 3.15 t/ha
– $11 Million
• $70 Million
Opportunities
• Impetus to develop risk management
• Linkage between adaptation and mitigation
– Must address entire system
– Stress co-benefits
– Provide integrated solutions
Threats
• Uncertainty
– Do not have good future data sets
• Frequency of extreme events
+ X*
X cc
Drought
SeverityXpc
- X*
Time (years)
pre-climate change
changed climate
freq.
(yrs)
Drought Severity
Smit et al., 2002
Threats
• Frequency of extreme events
• Economic risks
– Direct - Producer and larger community
– Indirect - Volatility of markets
• Environmental Impact
Threats
• Pests impacts
– Greater numbers
– Change in pest spectrum
• Sea-level rise
– Loss of agricultural land
– Salt water intrusion
Issues
• Water management
– Will there be sufficient water? Too much?
• Other demands on water sources
• Ability to retain water on landscape
– Water quality
• Potential for increased impacts on water quality
• Salt water intrusion on groundwater
Issues
• Economic risk management
– Rationalize programs
– Stable, predictable programs that can be
part of long-term planning
Needs
• Improved future climate scenarios
• Increased understanding of vulnerability
• Capacity - research and extension support
– Engaging the university community
• BIOCAP Canada
• Atlantic Environmental Science Network Climate
Change Cooperative
Thank You