Transcript Systems Biology - Dalton State College

Science,
Skepticism
& Climate Change
Gene Mesco, Ph.D.
Dalton State College
Earth Day, April 22, 2015
Weather – the
current state of the
atmosphere;
Climate - Average
or typical weather
over long periods
of time.
Science
Activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical
and natural world through observation and experiment.
& Skepticism
a skeptical attitude; doubt as to the truth of something.
& Climate Change
Science IS skepticism – until you can prove it.
Data indicates that the
temperature of our
planet is increasing.
The increases vary, and
are interspersed with
some areas of average
decreases…
97% of scientists who have published articles in peerreviewed journals agree humans have a significant
impact on climate change.
 W. R. L. Anderegg, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107
No. 27, 12107-12109 (21 June 2010); DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1003187107.
 P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, "Examining the Scientific
Consensus on Climate Change," Eos Transactions American
Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22; DOI:
10.1029/2009EO030002.
 N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific
Consensus on Climate Change,” Science Vol. 306 no. 5702,
p. 1686 (3 December 2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618.
How do we know?
What are
the methods?
 Temperature
recordings
How do we know?
What are
the methods?
 Temperature recordings
 Sea level change
Proceedings from The Twelfth Session of IPCC Working
Group I (WGI-12) was held from 23 to 26 September 2013 in
Stockholm, Sweden.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) –
established in 1988
How do we know?
1937
What are
the methods?
 Temperature recordings
 Sea level change
 Glacier melt
Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau,
Alaska
2006
How do we know?
What are
the methods?
 Temperature recordings
 Sea level change
 Glacier melt
 Sea ice decrease
How do we know?
What are
the methods?




Temperature recordings
Sea level change
Glacier melt
Sea ice decrease
 Ice cores
Ice cores trap air at deeper levels, preserving
a record of ‘old’ atmosphere.
Why do we care about ice cores?
Why is the climate
changing?
 Science works by analyzing data,
and generating explanations
 Current Hypothesis:
Anthropogenic gases and
the greenhouse effect
are a main cause of
climate change.
Anthropogenic gases are some of
the residues released due to
human activities…
In a greenhouse, or your car,
heat is trapped inside.
Visible light passes through,
heats the interior, and the
heated air and infrared red
radiation can’t escape back to
the environment.
CO2 levels directly
influence how much heat
can escape from the earth
to outer space.
Aerosols deposited in Greenland ice
So where are the ‘skeptics’?
Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is
occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the
greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver."
(2009)2
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
List of Worldwide Scientific Organizations
(197 Scientific Organizations That Hold the Position That Climate Change
Has Been Caused by Human Action)
http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
U.S. agencies
The following page contains information on what federal agencies are
doing to adapt to climate change.
http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/federal-agencies-adaptation.pdf
Why oppose or try to contradict
climate change?
 Who’s power is challenged?
 Who benefits from shifting away from the causes of
human climate change?
 Follow the money!
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solut
ions/fight-misinformation/global-warmingskeptic.html#.VTWqmKYywyE
American Enterprise Institute – questions climate change science….
“The hundreds of poll questions that have
been asked about the environment over the
past forty years paint a clear picture of the
evolution of Americans’ attitudes. A careful
reading of them shows that both sides of
the political spectrum misunderstand key
elements.”
“This year marks the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, and polls
show that Americans are sympathetic to efforts to protect
but
the environment,
that global warming, climate
change, and the nation’s energy problems are not their top
priorities.”
Received $3,615,000 from ExxonMobil 1998-2012, >$1,000,000 from Koch Foundations,
2004-2011, (Factsheet: American Enterprise Institute, AEI. )
“The most prominent advocates of global
warming aren’t scientists,” said Heartland’s
president, Joseph Bast. “They are
Charles Manson, a mass murderer; Fidel
Castro, a tyrant; and Ted Kaczynski, the
Unabomber.
Average American’s Not Alarmed over
Climate
H. Sterling Burnett – Energy and Environment
– April 20, 2015
Received $675,000 from ExxonMobil 1997-2006, >$1,400,000 from Donors Trust (Koch
Foundation)http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/feb/14/donors-trust-fundingclimate-denial-networks
The American Legislative Exchange Council
(ALEC) maintains that “global climate
change is inevitable” [13]
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/lega
cy/assets/documents/global_warming/GlobalWarming-Skeptic-Organizations-Source-13ALEC.pdf
So, if it’s inevitable,
why worry….
Received $1,600,000 from ExxonMobil 1998-2012, >$850,000 from Koch Foundation,
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=10
Not the first time…
Science has challenged many ‘established’
ideas over the years, and faced considerable
opposition;
 Heliocentrism – Galileo challenged the earth
as the center of the universe;
 Relativity –Einstein proposed a radical new
view of space, time, matter, and energy;
 Evolution – Darwin changed views on the
origins of species;
 Climate change – human activity can alter
the entire planet….
Timelines for expert & public consensus, aligned by their dates of introduction.
Lightning symbols denote organized opposition from contrarian, religious, or political
groups.
Citation: Phys. Today 64, 10, 39 (2011); http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.1295
Why the controversies?
 Galileo challenged the Roman Catholic Church, and their
‘infallibility’ doctrine that humans were the center of
everything.
 Einstein mostly faced opposition from peers, as he refuted
previous theories.
 This may explain why Einstein is now a popular figure, relative
to the others – he only challenged other professionals.
 Darwin upset religious dogma, and popular belief, similar
to Galileo.
 If the model is relevant & valid, it may be another century or
so before evolution is accepted as public consensus…
What to do about it?
 Humans make mistakes, and we can be mislead…
“When did you stop taking illegal drugs?”
Jim Inhofe
United States Senator
“In case we have forgotten, because we
keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest
year on record, I ask the chair, you know
what this is? It’s a snowball. And that’s just
from outside here. So it’s very, very cold
out.”
Can we only have economic growth
OR
concern for the environment?
Taxes from oil (% of total)
What if we tax the bad stuff? (not the current
policy in the U.S.)
Reforming the Tax System to Promote Environmental Objectives : An Application
to Mauritius
ISBN/ISSN:
9781455263417/1018-5941
June 1, 2011
Ian W.H. Parry
The article a by The Times, a British newspaper owned by
Rupert Murdoch, suggests that because a paper by the
University of Reading's Lennart Bengtsson was not
published in a prestigious scientific journal, politically
motivated suppression is behind the "cover-up."
( )
Nicola Gulley, the editorial director of Environmental
Research Letters stated (b) that the draft paper was not
published because it "contained errors" and "did not
provide a significant advancement in the field."
(a) http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/article4091344.ece
(b) http://ioppublishing.org/newsDetails/statement-from-iop-publishing-on-story-in-the-times
“When did you stop taking illegal drugs?”
What’s next?
 Ecology (from the Greek, ‘study of the house’) studies living
organisms in their physical environments, as
ecosystems.
 We constantly need energy added to an ecosystem.
 The flows of chemicals, as nutrients for life, need to
be in sustainable patterns.
Sustainability
 The study of life can teach us that we need to make
our ecosystem sustainable.
 We need to
understand our
place in the world.
Need more information?
Making Sense of Climate Science Denial
 New online course, starts April 28th
 Climate change is real, so why the controversy and debate? Learn to
make sense of the science and to respond to climate change denial.
 What you'll learn
 How to recognize the social and psychological drivers of climate science denial
 How to better understand climate change: the evidence that it is happening,
that humans are causing it and the potential impacts
 How to identify the techniques and fallacies that climate myths employ to
distort climate science
 How to effectively debunk climate misinformation
 https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-climate-science-denial-uqxdenial101x#