Transcript Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate

Part of "Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan
Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable", funded by BMZ
Presented by
P. Zhou, T. Simbini and G, Ramokgotlwane
EECG
EECG PROFILE

MOSTLY WORKING IN ENERGY AND ENVIORNMENT INCLDUING CLIMATE CHANGE. SINCE 1993.

FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WORK IN ALL ASPECTS- EMISSIONS, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION

WE SUPPORT NATIONAL CC ACTIVITIES- E.G. FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATION. ON IMPACTS DID THE
WATER SECTOR

MANAGED AND PARTICIPATED IN REGION CC PROJECTS- E.G. ESKOM CC RESEARCH PROGRAMME, CARBON
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND MITIGATION MLODELLING IN OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES

NOW HELPING MOZAMBIQUE DEVLOP THEIR CC MAINSTREAMING AND CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMME

WE ARE SMALL BUT SURVIVE ON PARTNERSHIPS WITH OTHER REGIONAL CENTRES AND ASSOCIATE
CONSULTANTS

CORE PRODUCERS OF THE REPORT TICH SIMBINI AND GORATA RAMOKGOTLWANE AND TS WILL MAKE
THE PRESENTATION

ACKNWOLEDGE UPFRONT THE INPUTS MADE BY IFPRI-WHO MADE ALL THE MODELLING RESULTS
 Project Background
 Objectives
 Review of Current Situation and trends
 Review of Land Use, Potential, and Limitations
 Institutional Policy, Programs and Strategies
 Scenarios for the Future
 Agricultural Outcomes
 Conclusions
 This study is part of a Southern Africa Development
Community (SADC) project commissioned by the
Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy
Analysis Network (FANRPAN) and the International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
 To assess the region’s vulnerability of Agriculture to
climate change with special emphasis being placed on
the poor.
 Four agro-ecological
zones
 Kalahari desert
sandveld (in center
of country, two
thirds of country)
 Eastern part of
country loamy clay
soils
 North Eastern – wet
sand veld
 Remainder
transition sandveld
Decade
Total Growth
Rate
Rural Growth
Rate
Urban Growth Rate
1960-1969
2.70
2.30
11.90
1970-1979
3.50
2.50
11.10
1980-1989
3.20
-0.20
12.60
1990-1999
2.40
0.20
4.90
2000-2008
1.20
-0.60
2.60
Source: IFPRI calculations, based on World Development Indicators (World Bank)
 Most of population
in eastern and south
eastern parts of
country.
 Availability of
fertile soils and
better water
availability
Settlement Type
Cities/Towns
Urban Villages
Rural Areas
National
Total households
109 556
121 321
163 395
394 272
% of households
27.8%
30.8%
41.4%
100%
3 961
2 445
1 379
2 425
504
347
240
358
Median
1 949
1 334
743
1 344
Upper 10%
9 635
5 520
3 105
7 030
Income (per month)
Mean
Lower 10%
Variable
1993/94
2002/03
46.7
30.3
0.556
0.537
0.573
% of households without cattle
50.2
54.6
62.5
% of households without goats
46.9
1. Poverty rate (as % of indiv. population)
2. Income distribution: national Gini coefficient disposable
income
1984/85
59
3. Livestock ownership
63.0
% of households without sheep
92.3
% of households without chicken
59.1
80% forest by FAO
Green also areas good for arable agriculture- although some protected
 80% of Botswana has
significant tree and
shrub cover classed as
“forests” under FAO
 Only 20% (mostly in the
north east tall and dense
enough to be called
forest in Southern
African sense
limiting agriculture land
 Location of protected
areas i.e. parks reserves
and fragile ecosystems
allocated tourism and in
some parts also suitable
for agriculture activities
-largely <0% in last decade
Comparison of Agriculture GDP ratevs Overal GDP rate
15
10
GDP
5
means
Agriculture
0
-5
-10
-15
Total GDP
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 Annual
Year
200007*
Planted Area by Communal and Commercial Farmer for Sorghum,
Maize and Millet
50,000
45,000
40,000
Sorghum Cmnl
Hectrage
35,000
Maize Cmnl
30,000
Millet Cmnl
25,000
Sorghum
20,000
Maize
15,000
Millet
10,000
5,000
0
Year
Crops
Maize
Sorghum/millet
Year
Requirements
Production
(mt)
Deficit
2001/02
124 000
17 412
-106 588
2002/03
131 000
1 633
-129 367
2003/04
125 000
6 220
-118 780
2004/05
141 000
2 586
-138 414
2005/06
140 000
10 467
-129 533
2006/07
144 000
751
-143 249
2001/02
62 000
31 625
-30 375
2002/03
55 000
54 362
-638
2003/04
65 000
35 134
-29 866
2004/05
64 000
21 164
-42 836
2005/06
60 000
25 604
-34 396
2006/07
57 000
26 193
-30 807
 Botswana has average deficit of 99% for maize and 46%
sorghum for the period under review (i.e. 2001-2007)
 FAO reports that daily average kilocalories per capita in
Botswana decreased from 2260 in 1990/92 to 2180 in 2001/03
 Mainstay of the rural population, which makes up about 42.6% of




Botswana’s population
85% of national herd grazed in communal lands and is hampered by a
shortage of water
Cattle production is the only source of agricultural exports in Botswana
Average beef production has been declining and targets that were set in
NDP9 were not met
Being hampered by the lack of quality breeding stock, lack of
infrastructure in production areas, poor livestock husbandry and
diseases
(Exports to EU-Fulfilment)
Item
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Chilled meat
8 118
4,781
5,376
4,692
4,198
2,986
1,119
Frozen Meat
8 110
5,010
3,825
5,433
3,375
3,140
5,336
Total Exports
16 228
9,791
9201
10,125
7,573
6,126
6,455
Export Quota
18 916
18,916
18,916
18,916
18,916
18,916
18,916
86%
52%
49%
54%
40%
32%
34%
Quota
fulfillment
 MoA attribute this fall to outbreaks of Foot and Mouth
Disease (FMD) and
 that 10% of carcasses from BMC are affected with Bovine
measles
–
Animal Production (Small Stock)
 Small stock production but plays and important socio-economic





role in the lives of the rural poor as a source of food and income
(mostly to female headed households)
national small stock population showing a decreasing trend mostly
due to poor management and disease and parasite infestation.
high mortality rate for small stock during wet years because of high
incidence of disease compared to dry years.
E.g heartwater disease case in the eastern part of the country.
heartwater disease in also being observed in areas that used to be
designated as heartwater disease free areas.
Botswana has for the first time in history had an outbreak of the
Rift-Valley Fever in the Kanye and Ramotswa area.
Institutional Policy, Programs and
Strategies
 Institutional Policy, Programs and Strategies that were reviewed include
 Vision 2016
 NDP 9
 Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture Development







(ISPAAD)
Livestock Management and Infrastructure Development Programme
Phase1 (LIMID)
National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development
(NAMPAADD)
Gender Policy
Botswana’s Agricultural Policy: Critical Sectoral Issues and Future
Strategy for Development
Diseases of Animal Act 1977
Revised National Food Strategy
Programs in Support of Public Goods (Rural Infrastructure,
Agricultural Research)
Scenarios for the Future
 Changes in mean annual precipitation for SSA and
Botswana between 2000 and 2050
 Changes in normal annual maximum temperature for
Botswana between 2000 and 2050
 Yield change map under climate change: rainfed maize in
Botswana
 Yield change map under climate change: rainfed sorghum
in Botswana
Figure 1. Maps showing changes in mean annual precipitation for
Sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2050 using the A1B scenario
CNRM-CM3 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
MIROC3.2
ECHAM5 GCM
 While consequences of CC are becoming increasingly well known, greater
uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play out in specific
locations
 GCMs illustrate the range of potential climate outcomes
CNRM-CM3 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM
MIROC3.2
CNRM-CM3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
MIROC3.2
CNRM-CM3 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM
MIROC3.2
CNRM-CM3 GCM
CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM
MIROC3.2
MAIZE CHANGES
OPTIMISTIC
DISTRICTS
COMMENTS
Greater than 25% NE+Pandamatenga
5 to 25%
kweneng, Kgaltleng
All GCMs
3 of 4 GCMs
mixed
-5 to -25%
Kgalagadi
Kweneng and SE
All GCMs- dont
agree
all GCMS
SORGHUM CHANGES
DISTRICTS
COMMENTS
OPTIMISTIC
Central, Kweneng,
Kgatleng,Southern, SE
2 of 4 GCMs
Ghanzi, Ngamiland, half of
Central
Kgalagadi
all GCMS
2 of 4 GCMs
PESSIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
upto 25%
-5 to -25%
mixed
general loss of
yields
Across the country
Agricultural Outcomes
Impact of changes in GDP and population on maize in Botswana
Agricultural Outcomes
Impact of changes in GDP and population on sorghum in Botswana
Conclusions
 Botswana’s semi-arid climate severely already limits the
country’s food production capacity before impacts of
climate change
 5% is suitable for cultivation and less than 1% is being
cultivated mostly in the eastern parts of the country
 Agriculture contribution to GDP reduced from 40% at
independence in 1966 to just over 1% at present
 Agriculture still remains the mainstay of the rural
economy, which is made up of 41.4% of the country’s
households and offers employment to 30% of the
country’s employable population
Conclusions
 communal farmers cultivate 80% total planted area in
the country but produce 38% of the country’s total
harvest
 Beef production is the only agriculture export earner in
Botswana and is dominated by communal farmers who
possess about 85% of the national herd
 There is currently no policy in Botswana, which caters
for the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change
 The current policy framework has taken into
consideration the drought prone climate of Botswana
Conclusions
 Change in precipitation
 Most optimistic scenario:- change between -50 to -200mm in




different parts of the country
 Most probable scenario:- changes of between -50 to 50mm in most
of the country
Temperature projected to rise by between 1 to 3.5oC across the country
Maize and sorghum yields, projected to increase as the farming
methods improve and better hybrid seeds are produced thus resulting
in increased production for both crops.
However the increased local production will not be sufficient to satisfy
the local demand
Communal farmers are more vulnerable to the effects of climate
change than commercial farmers
RECOMMENDATIONS
 HERE ONLY VULNERABILITY-NO ADAPTATION





MEASURES
EVEN ON VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT- NOT A
ONCE OFF EXERCISE-NEED CONTINUED
ASSESSMENTS TO GAIN BETTERUNDERSTANDING OF
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS (E.G. ON LIVELIHOODS)
AND HOW TO PREPARE FOR THEM.
IDENTIFY MODELS THAT BEST SUITE BOTSWANA
IDENTIFY IMPORTANT INPUTS INTO PLANNING
PROCESSES
ON ADAPTATION OPTIONS
MAP ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND COSTING THE
STRATEGIES
RECOMMENDATIONS CONTD
 BUILD NECESSARY CAPACITY FOR MODELLING
 LEARN FROM GOOD PRACTICES AND BAD




PRACTICES- THINKING COST BENEFIT
UPSCALING OF HOPEFUL PILOT STRATEGIES
REVISION OF
POLICIES/PLANS/STRAGEIES/PROGRAMMES TO
INCORPORATE CC. MAINSTREAMING CC INTO
DEVELOPMENT
FORUM OF INFORMATION SHARING
M&E FRAMEWORK