Transcript Responding to the Future: Conflict and Environment over Time

Responding to the Future:
Conflict and Environment over
Time
Jim Lee
American University
January 2006
Changing Nations and National Interests
• The state system is fragmenting. The number
of states in the world is growing due to
increasing self-determination.
• The global system is strengthening. States are
becoming much more interdependent.
• Demands due to population and development
will continue to grow.
• Stresses on the environment will grow.
• These demands and stresses, coupled with
changing national interests, will be sources for
conflict. Conflict today is extremely lethal.
The Problem of Conflict and Environment
• Conflict and environment are age-old
problems.
• Perspectives on the value of the
environment change with time: the
examples of petroleum and bird guano.
• There is little systematic research and
few tools available for understanding
short and long-term conflict.
Thinking About Conflict and Environment
Environment and Change in Western
North America: A China Lake Story
1.
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3.
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5.
5.
(see following map)
China Lake: A Lake without Water and a Place
without Chinese
How Lake Manley became Death Valley
Native People in the Owens Valley and the
Arrival of American Ranchers
How LA Drank Lake Owens
The Manzanar Japanese Internment Camp in
World War II
Restoring Lake Owens: Defense meets Ecology
Map of Eastern Sierra Nevada
Knowledge Review
Some Major Sources: Singer, Bremer,
Gleick, Westing, Homer-Dixon, SIPRI
Their research was used to guide
thinking on the construct of the
format and the cases of interest.
Both mix conflict and environment
indicators and issues.
A Dichotomous Approach to Key Issues
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Push and Pull
Scarcity and Surplus
Source and Sink
Demand and Supply
Animate and Inanimate
Finite and Infinite
Specie and Habitat
General and Specific
Sovereign and Non-sovereign
Approach to Case Studies
Time periods (more discrete periods are also possible)
• Ancient (to year 0)
• Middle (year 0 to 1900)
• Modern (1900 on)
Build an Initial Inventory of Exemplar or Seed Cases
based on Type
• Use three dichotomous types to examine six initial
case studies per time period.
• Variable-oriented case study indicators that are
comparable across cases
• Create a kind of structured chronology.
Ancient Cases
Dichotomous
Dimensions
Environmental
Breadth
Environmental
Breadth
Social Type
Social Type
Conflict
Dimension
Conflict
Dimension
Category
Conflict
over
General
Resources
Conflict
over
Specific
Resources
Conflict
over Source
Resources
Conflict
over Sink
Resources
Nonterritory
Territory
Type
Climate
Change
Forests
Arable Land
Water
Weapons
Boundaries
Ancient Case
Neanderthal
35,000 bc
Cedars
2,600 bc
Mohenjo
1,700 bc
Nile
900 bc
Assyria
600 bc
Great Wall
200 bc
Middle Cases
Dichotomous
Dimensions
Environmental
Breadth
Environmental
Breadth
Social Type
Social
Type
Conflict
Dimension
Conflict
Dimension
Category
Conflict
over
General
Resource
Conflict
over
Specific
Resource
Conflict
over
Source
Resource
Conflict
over Sink
Resource
Nonterritory
Territory
Type
Climate
Change
Forests
Arable
Land
Water
Weapons
Boundary
Middle
Case
Vineland
1000
Robin
Hood
1450
Maya
800
Anasazi
1200
Buffalo
1870
Hadrian
150
Modern Cases
Dimensions
Environmental
Breadth
Environmental
Breadth
Social Type
Social Type
Conflict
Dimension
Conflict
Dimension
Category
Conflict
over
General
Resources
Conflict
over
Specific
Resources
Conflict
over
Source
Resources
Conflict
over Sink
Resources
Nonterritory
Territory
Type
Climate
Change
Forests
Arable
Land
Water
Weapons
Boundaries
Modern
Case
Sahel
1997
Khmer
1992
Rwanda
1994
Jordan
1967
Kuwait
1991
DMZ
1953
The ICE Inventory
• 145 Case reports reported online
• All coded on the basis of 16
categories
• Coding categories are almost all
delimited
• Coding categories are mostly
nominal and ordinal
The ICE Coding Categories
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b.
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c.
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d.
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e.
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Basic Attributes
Abstract
Description
Duration
Location
Actors
Environment Attributes
Type of Environmental Problem
Type of Habitat
Act and Harm Sites
Conflict Attributes
Type of Conflict
Level of Conflict
Fatality Level of Dispute (military and civilian fatalities)
Conflict Environment Overlap
Environment-Conflict Link and Dynamics
Level of Strategic Interest
Outcome of Dispute
Related Information and Sources
Related Cases
Relevant Literature and Websites
4
Percent
What the Data Reveals: One Way Breakouts
• An Increase of Cases with End of
Cold War
Conflict Start
7
6
5
3
2
1
0
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1976
1974
1971
1969
1966
1962
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
1935
1899
1874
1856
1381
900
80
-450
-720
-2600
-45000
Conflict Start
Durations of Conflict are a Normal Curve
Durations
30
25
Percent
20
15
10
5
0
0-2 Years
3-7 Years
8-16 Years
16-32
Years
Durations
32-64
Years
65-128
Years
Over 129
Years
Habitats: It’s About Water
Habitat
Cool
Dry
Ocean
Temp
Trop
The Sub-State Factor
Scope
40
Percent
30
20
10
0
Bilat
Multi
Region
Scope
Sub
Unilat
The Tension Belt
Fatalities: Low and High Scale Events
Fatality Coded
60
50
Percent
40
30
20
10
0
Less than
100
101-1,000
1,001-10,000
10,0011,000,000
Fatality Coded
1 million to 10 More than 10
million
million
Two Way Breakouts: Civil and Mid-term
Conflict Type and Duration
Conflict Type
60
Civil
War
50
Percent
40
30
20
10
0
0-2 Years
8-16 Years
32-64 Years
Over 129 Years
3-7 Years
16-32 Years
65-128 Years
Durations
Conflict Type and Continent: Where
Matters
100%
80%
60%
Threat
Low
40%
High
Harm
20%
0%
Africa
Asia
Europe Mideast
N.
S.
Amer. Amer.
Conflict Type and Habitat: What Matters
100%
80%
60%
War
40%
Civil
20%
0%
Cool
Dry
Ocean
Habitat
Temp
Trop
Conflict Level and Type: How Matters
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
War
40%
Civil
30%
20%
10%
0%
Harm
High
Low
Conflict Level
Threat
The ICE Expert Decision-Making System
The Conflict Sub-System
The Environment Sub-System
The Conflict and Environment Outcome
21st Century Trends in Conflict and
Environment and Management
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1. General Resources Demand
2. Specific Resources Demand
3. Pollution as Conflict Cause
4. Localization of Conflict
5. The Tension Belt
6. Managing the Two Types of
Tension Belt Cases