Transcript Climate Impact Research in the BSR: State of the Art

Dr. Jürgen Kropp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climate Change: A global
problem with local origins
Structure
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
What is the main issue for decision-makers?
What do we know and what can we learn from climate research?
How can we deal with uncertainty?
From knowledge to action: are we prepared?
What are preconditions for good policies?
The connection of mitigation and adaptation
Conclusion
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
1
Main scope of “local” decision makers:
Extremes and their Frequency
But: Extremes are rare per
definition, i.e. if we have long
measurements we will have only
a few extremes which can be
analysed systematically (cf. talk
tomorrow).
inherent and unresolvable uncertainty!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
2
Decision makers and other stakeholders
demand for accurate and highly spatially
resolved information from climate researchers!
Impossible!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Views of climate change
“I believe that climate change is the most
important long-term issue we face as a global
community. It is an issue that will require
sustained action over the coming decades. A
sound understanding of the science must be the
basis for this action.”
Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister
3 Nov 2004
“Much of the debate over global warming is
predicated on fear, rather than science. I called the
threat of catastrophic global warming the greatest
hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”
James M. Inhofe, US Senator &
Chairman of Environment and Public Works Committee
4 Jan 2005
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Do we have evidences for a Climate Change?
Are we prepared to cope with adverse effects?
Do we have sufficient knowledge on hand to act
and react?
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Climate in the Past and the Future (Global View!)
We are here!
*
Eem
Holocene
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
6
Switch points
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Mechanisms are clear more than 100 years
(some physics….)
e.g. Clausius-Clapeyron Law (1834)
Stefan-Boltzmann Law: (1879)
Example: Zero-dimensional climate model
We need:
S
=
π R2
=
4πR2
=
α
=
εσT4
=
solar constant (1340 W/m2)
eliminated area of solar insolation (R radius of earth)
total earth surface
earth Albedo
Stefan-Boltzmann-Law (SB constant: σ = 5.669*10-8 W/m2 K4)
ε: counts for thermal absorption
of atmospheric gases
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
2
4
2
4

R

T

S
(
1


)

R
4
T4=S(1
-
)
T = - 18.6 °C (=1)
TT=14,9 °C (=0.6)
[email protected]
8
Consequences of EE: Natural Disasters
Increase of big large natural disasters (Source MunichRe):
Decade
1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number
20
27
47
63
91
Mrd.US$ (2004)
45
81
148
228
704
Extreme weather related loss: ~10% of GNP in industrial nations
1. There is no direct cause effect relation
for single events and climate change, but:
2. Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes are
observed for several extreme weather indicators:
• More days with intense precipitation
• Increasing numbers of floods in many regions
• Increasing wind peak velocities in various regions
• Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regions
• Increasing damage potential for tropical storms (!) and winter storms
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
9
Basic Foundations of Climate Modelling
Climate = Statistics of Weather
(30yr averages)
Structure:
Multilayer Grid-Sized Coupled
Ocean Atmosphere General
Circulation Models (~ 300 km2)
(Origin early 80ties)
Preconditions
Forcing Scenarios:
IPCC Storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2)
Consistency & Validation:
CMIP: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Validation by observation/reconstruction
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/index.php
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
10
Global Climate  Regional Climate
Global Scenario
precipitation
GCM
T
~300 km
>| |<
~10-50 km
Regionalisation
global
?
local
precipitation
2050
climate
hydrology
Regional
Simulator
Land use
soils/
Geology
Infrastructure
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
11
Local Models: why it is so difficult?
Downscaling: from global model scale (~ 300 km2) to a
regional scale (~10-50 km2)
Two strategies: statistical models/dynamical models
• Physical representation of processes must be more explicit
• Need more computational power and time
• Orography must be represented adequately
• Boundary constraints (which model?)
• Statistical transfer functions do not change in time
• “Migration” of boundary inputs, etc.
LCM Errors: Statistical (local) models: 10-20%
Dynamical (local) models 30-40%
Model intercomparisons are ongoing research (e.g. at PIK)!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
12
First Project: PRUDENCE
(Special Issue: Climatic Change 2006)
Only a few sources of uncertainties were analysed:
Radiative uncertainty: A2 which is only one IPCC hypothesis
Model uncertainty: subgrid, discretization effects
Sampling uncertainty: averages 30yrs
Boundary conditions: running under constraints of one GCM
Main results: A2, Dmeans 1961/1990 – 2071/2100
Northwards migration of ecosystems
Increase of precipitation in the north, decrease in the south, more torrential
rain
Increase of extreme wind speeds between 45° - 55°N, more north-westerly
Faster increase of more hot, days than the increase of moderate days
Increase of heatwaves over central Europe
Large differences between certain models!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
PRUDENCE Comparison
1961/90 – 2075/2100, A2 Hadley Boundary
DT (°C)
BSR Countries*
(model mean)
Ta
DP (%)
T (DJF)
T(JJA)
Pa
P(DJF)
P(JJA)
Denmark
1.1
1.0
1.1
2.4
9.8
-6.4
Estonia
1.4
1.6
1.2
4.2
10.2
4.5
Finland
1.4
1.7
1.0
5.8
10.9
4.6
Germany North
1.2
1.1
1.3
0.1
6.0
-7.3
Latvia
1.4
1.6
1.2
3.2
9.7
1.8
Lithuania
1.4
1.5
1.2
2.0
8.8
-1.1
Poland
1.3
1.3
1.3
0.7
6.0
-4.0
Sweden North
1.3
1.5
1.0
5.3
9.0
2.7
Sweden South
1.2
1.3
1.1
3.5
11.4
-2.1
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Empirical Analysis: Heatwave 2003 (Combined Extreme)
Temperature
Rainfall
Tmin
Tmax
J
DP%(61-90)
J
J
J
A
DT(61-90)
A
S
Kropp and others, Ann.For.Sci. 63: 569ff, 2006
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Gaussian distributions of mean
summer maximum temperatures as
Basle (Switzerland), (measured: 19611990, A); A': HIRHAM4 model), 20712100 A2 scenario simulation (B) and
2003 summer heatwave (C).
economic
global
DJF and JJA precipitation changes,
simulated by Rossby Centre LCM
under Hadley Centre (left) and
MPI HH (right) constraints
(A2 storyline)
A1 A2 regional
B1 B2
ecological
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
16
Simulation Scenario (A2, nested LCM)
(Boundary: HadRM3, Res.: 0.44º x 0.44º)
D mean Pd(61/90-70/99)
D max Pa(61/90-70/99)
Kundzewicz 2007, In: Trends, Extremens and Correlations in
Hydrology and Climate, ed. By J. Kropp & HJ Schellnhuber, Springer
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Winter storm 2005, Pärnu
River Elbe Flood 2002
Even modern societies as, US, Germany, or
France are sensitive against weather extremes,
therefore also to long-term climate change!
This implies that they are mal-adapted
to current weather situations
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
European Heatwave 2003
[email protected]
They have had the possibility to know it, but
- may be – that the awareness was too low….
Drowning New Orleans
by Mark Fischetti
Scientific American (October 1, 2001)
The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them
are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the
right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As
the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find
a lot of dead bodies".
New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by
levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west.
And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing
flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the
gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an
area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss
gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one
million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would
be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at
Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on
advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go
very far...................
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
19
Hurricane Katrina,
Gulf of Mexico
2005
(SS5; SS4 - landfall)
1000km
Example of maladaptation!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Combating and Coping with Climate Change
(Post-) Kyoto-Process:
Mitigation, definition of stabilization
levels; technical solutions, e.g. carbon
capturing and sequestration (will be
not discussed here in detail!)
Improving Preparedness:
Adaptation, avoid unmanageable
situations, develop strategies to
manage the unavoidable
ASTRA‘s main issue!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
21
Vulnerability Concept
Long-term related (CCC):
Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope
with, adverse effects of climate change (impact), including climate variability and
extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate
variation to which a system is exposed (exposed system), its sensitivity (degree of
interference), and its adaptive capacity (capability to adjust).
Event related (ISDR):
Vulnerability: The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and
environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a
community to the impact of hazards.
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Hazard: A potentially damaging physical event (single, combined, etc. ),
phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property
damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Climate Impact, Systems Response and Vulnerability
Climate Change
IMPACT
vulnerable
disastrous
impact
significant
impact
minor
impact
adapted
critical
limits
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
temperature
change
[email protected]
23
Integrated Vulnerability of North-Rhine Westphalia
(against Weather Extremes)
24 variables indexing a
sensitivity against climate
change for several sectors.
Exposed units e.g. were
economy, human health,
nature.....
396 communities, allows
allocate money for concrete
action in concrete
regions.
Kropp et al. (2006): Climatic Change 76:265-290
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Initial Impacts
Effects
Expected
Adaptations
Residual or
Net Impacts
VULNERABILITIES
MITIGATION
of Climate Change
via GHG sources
and sinks
CLIMATE CHANGE
incl. variability
IMPACTS
Human
Interference
dangerous? vulnerable?
Planned
ADAPTATION
to the
Impacts and
Vulnerabilities
Policy
Responses
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
25
Adaptation is a Duty!
Problem of adaptation ist not new, but the view on adaptation
changes: humanity now can anticipate disastrous developments!
Results from climate models provide valuable hints, why we should
to adapt/mitigate.
They cannot provide information for concrete regional actions,
since this lies outside the scope of models!
Actions must be developed in close cooperation of decision
makers and scientists
....
AMICA - Adaptation and Mitigation
- an Integrated Climate Policy Approach:
European Cities Striving for Best Practice Examples
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Types of Adaptation
Anticipatory
• changes in ecosystem
composition, location
• wetland migration
Private
• crop diversification
• purchase insurance
• house designs
• crop development
• borrow, change activity
• reconstruction,
relocation
Public
Natural
Systems
Human
Systems
Reactive
• early-warning
• building codes
• infrastructure
• disaster relief
• relocation incentives
Best Practice Examples
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
AMICA: Best Practice Examples
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Vulnerabiliy and Adaptation
Example: Water Management
Global Change
Socio-economic
Climate Change
change
Sensitivity
Regional Exposure
•High water demand
•High population density
•Lack of Precipitation
•Extreme rainfall events
greenhousesgasemissions
Adaptability
•Land use management
•Risik management
Potential Impacts
•Loss due to extreme droughts
•Loss due to extreme floods
Vulnerability
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Awareness &
Preparedness
Christmas flood
Cologne 1993
www
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Flood 1995
Flood Cologne
1995
www
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]
Financial damage of the
1993 and 1995 floods in Cologne
•
Almost the same
water level
1993: 10,63 m
1995: 10,69 m
•
Same sentivity
•
But reduction of financial damage
by more than 50% !
•
Explained to a great extent by
higher preparedness of
affected households and business
companies
Mio. DM
160
140
120
150
Mio.
DM
100
80
65
Mio.
DM
60
40
20
0
Schäden 1993
1993
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
Schäden 1995
1995
[email protected]
Thank you
for your attention!
Gdansk Conference
October 26-27th, 2006
[email protected]