Transcript The sustainability challenge to aviation

The sustainability
challenge to aviation
Anthony Rae
Volunteer Aviation campaigner
Friends of the Earth
Issues
- What type of ‘challenge’ to
aviation?
- A sustainable development
analysis: economic/ social/
environmental, and also long-term
- Where are we in 2011?
- What would ‘Responsible Aviation’
look like?
Background
- Participant in pre White Paper North of England
reference group
- Doncaster Finningley Airport public inquiry
2001
- Wrote Airportwatch: Flying into Trouble 2002
- and 2003 FOE submission into ATWP:
Sustainable Aviation = Demand Management
- Member of the FOE core aviation team
- Research with Tyndall Centre - Growth
Scenarios for EU & UK Aviation: contradictions
with climate policy 2005 & Aviation in a Low
Carbon EU: how the aviation ETS must be
improved 2007
Background
- Leeds Bradford Airport Surface Access Forum
2005 onwards
- Work on UK and EU legal frameworks 2007-8
- LBA new Terminal planning application 2009
- 2010-11 work on new Government aviation
framework and HS2
also
- Head of Tourism, Manchester City Council
1984-1990
- Member of the Yorkshire & Humber Regional
Transport Board 2006-10
Background
“Air travellers could still fly as much as they
like (an advantage of the demand
management model over the capacity
constraint model), only they would have to
pay an appropriate price to do so. This is the
best way to reconcile consumer wishes and
their wider obligations in a civil market society
especially one in which the environmental
imperative is rising.”
Friends of the Earth 2003
Economics
- The ‘primacy’ of the economic analysis
- The partiality of the DfT economic
analysis
- OEF but now Omega. E.g “The
economic studies examined tend to
demonstrate an expansionary trend in
the definition and calculation of air
transport employment.”
Economics
- Properly interpreting the Low Cost business model
- ‘In economics, the Jevons paradox is the
proposition that technological progress that
increases the efficiency with which a resource is
used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the
rate of consumption of that resource’
- So annual improvements to engine/fuel efficiency,
recycled through lower fares, produce not less
emissions … but more!
- But not according to IATA: ”Less Fuel = Less
Emissions”
- However surely ‘Low Cost’ does = ‘Low
Employment’?
Economics - in the regions
- The false doctrine of ATWP 2003: “Airports
are an important focus for the development of
local and regional economies. They attract
business and generate employment and open
up wider markets. They can provide an
important impetus to regeneration and a focus
for new commercial and industrial
development.” 4.24
- Regional ‘tourism deficit’
- ‘Regional rebalancing’
Economics - International
- the ‘Food Miles’ analysis
- ”Many developing countries have in turn
built-up substantial local economies based
on international tourism. In some cases
the dependence on inbound international
tourism is very high.” APD consultation
- “The benefits of tourism to the economies
of developing nations has been
significantly and systematically overestimated.” NEF
Bringing Economics and
Environmental together
- “The growth in aviation’s carbon emissions
broadly reflects the rapid increase in passenger
demand, in parallel with a substantial reduction in
the real cost of flying over this period. Since 1990
passenger numbers in the UK have increased by
113%, while real air fares have fallen by around
60%. In the absence of further restraints on
demand, air passenger numbers are forecast to
grow by up to 200% by 2050.” APD consultation
2011
- But what about the increase in emissions since
1990? +120% to 2005
Environmental
- For FOE this means climate change
- Contribution that aviation emissions make to
overall GHG totals
2009: UK 5% (DfT 6%) and Global 2.4% CCC
2050: UK ‘around 25%’ (according to specific
assumptions relating to the national carbon
budget) and Global ‘15-20%’ (according to
assumptions relating to thresholds for the
avoidance of ‘dangerous climate change’) CCC
Environmental
“In January 2009, the Government set a target
to reduce UK aviation emissions in 2050 back
to 2005 levels or below. … Our assessment of
required policies is therefore focused on the
target as currently defined, keeping 2050 UK
aviation CO2 emissions to no more than 37.5
MtCO2” CCC
Environmental
The industry version of climate change ‘targets’
- “These targets include achieving carbon neutral
growth from 2020, reducing emissions by 1.5%
annually in the run-up to 2020, and halving
emissions by 2050 compared with 2005 levels.”
ATAG for IATA
- ”New aircraft are 70% more fuel efficient than 40
years ago and 20% better than 10 years ago.
Airlines are aiming for a further 25% fuel efficiency
improvement by 2020.” IATA
- IATA Fuel Efficiency Goal: “IATA airlines have
adopted a voluntary fuel efficiency goal. This is to
reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions (per
revenue tonne kilometer) by at least 25% by
2020, compared to 2005 levels.”
Environmental
ICAO 37th Assembly: Noted the IATA decision “to continuously
improve CO2 efficiency by an average of 1.5% per annum from
2009 until 2020, to achieve carbon neutral growth from 2020 and
reducing its carbon emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to 2005
levels”
Resolution 6 [to] … work together to strive to achieve a collective
medium term global aspirational goal of keeping the global net
carbon emissions from international aviation from 2020 at the
same level, taking into account: … f) that emissions may increase
due to the expected growth in international air traffic until lower
emitting technologies and fuels and other mitigating measures are
developed and deployed”
Resolution 4 to achieve a global annual average fuel efficiency
improvement of 2% until 2020 and an aspirational global fuel
efficiency improvement rate of 2% per annum from 2021 to 2050”
Environmental
’ "There is an enormous amount of work to do to
improve fuel efficiency and reduce carbon
dioxide emissions," admits ATAG, adding that
alternative fuels will play a key role in meeting
the objectives.’
”… use of sustainable alternative fuels for
aviation to accelerate the reduction of aviation
CO2 emissions” ICAO A37-19 23 i) when they
really meant ‘reduce the acceleration of …’
Bringing the Economic, Social
and Environmental together
“Reducing the carbon emissions from aviation is crucial
both to the success of climate change policies and to
the future of aviation. … the following principles
should apply … b) aviation should be treated
equitably in climate change policy - it should not be
demonised or assigned symbolic value beyond its true
impacts …” TSC Future of Aviation Dec 2009
- If the aviation sector continues to be privileged
inside the UK National Carbon Budget, all other
economic and social sectors will need to bear
increased costs and face additional carbon reductions.
- Why?
Where are we in 2011?
- 2003 White Paper but then EU ETS 2007,
Climate Change Act 2008 and abandonment of
SE runways 2010
- ‘Key recommendation: International aviation
and shipping should in future be included in
carbon budgets.’ CCC 4th Carbon Budget report
Dec 2010
- DECC ‘High’ Fossil Fuel price assumption;
“…further downgrade of 2011 industry profit
forecast to $4 billion, a 78% drop compared to
2010 $18 billion net profit. On expected revenues
of $598 billion, this equates to a 0.7% margin”
IATA June 2011
Where are we in 2011?
-“With the environmental framework
increasingly constraining the shape and
direction of aviation growth, it is clear that, if
we are to continue enjoying the significant
benefits of a growing, deregulated aviation
industry, then we need to put aviation on a
more sustainable footing.” SoS June 2011
- “IATA warns EU over ‘illegal’ carbon plan”;
“Manchester Airport launches ‘Give us a break’
tax campaign for passengers”
What would
Responsible Aviation look like?
- Keeping aviation in perspective
- Principle: ‘Neither demonised, nor privileged
… subject to responsible behaviour’
- the Business Model versus Climate Change
- the Business Model versus the UK economy
and social sectors
- Public Relations versus the Business Model
What would
Responsible Aviation look like?
- The rate and absolute level of forecast and
intended growth is unsustainable. What to do?
Some principles:
- Can’t rethink so instead constrain the Low
Cost business model
- Accept equal treatment and responsibilities
inside the UK national carbon budget (and the
same globally)
- Accept fair tax treatment and demand
management
- Stop seeking privileged position at the
expense of other sectors
What would
Responsible Aviation look like?
But is aviation either a responsible or
sustainable industry at present?
The answer is: No
What would Responsible Aviation
look like? Maybe like this