Transcript Slide 1

Impacts & Adaptation
to
Climate Change
A Sri Lankan Perspective
Senaka Basnayake
Senior Meteorologist
Centre for Climate Change Studies (CCCS)
Department of Meteorology
Colombo 07
Sri Lanka
SICCIA 28th June – 02nd July 2004, Grainau, Germany
Outline….


Climate & Climate Change of Sri Lanka
Impacts of Climate Change in,





Agriculture
Water Resources sectors..
Adaptation Measures Taken
Scope of the AIACC Project
Future Climate Scenarios for Sri Lanka
South
Asia
Principal Meteorological Stations
Agrometeorological Stations
Raingauge Stations
Meteorological
Station
Network
Climate of Sri Lanka
Climatological Seasons in Sri Lanka

First Inter-Monsoon (FIM) – March & April

Southwest Monsoon (SWM)- May – September

Second Inter-Monsoon (SIM)- October & November

Northeast Monsoon (NEM) – December - February
10000
700
600
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL
( Computed for the Standard Averaging period of 1961 - 1990 in millimeters )
Department of Meteorology
LC/11-2000
40
35
33
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
30
28
25
23
20
18
15
10
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
AVERAGE MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE
( Computed for the Standard Averaging period of 1961 - 1990 in degrees Celsius )
Department of Meteorology
lc/11-2000
Climatic zones of Sri Lanka
Rainfall
below 1,750 mm - Dry zone
1,750 - 2,500 mm - Inter mediate zone
above 2,500 mm - Wet zone
Agro-Ecological Zones of Sri Lanka
AGRO ECOLOGICAL MAP

24 agro-ecological
zones
DL3
Jaffna
#
D(L3-L4)
DL3
Elephant P ass
DL4
#
Mullaittivu
DL3
#
Mannar
DL4
Vavuniya
#

49 sub-zones
DL3
#
Anuradhapura
Trincomalee
Kant ale
#
D(L2-L4)



WZ – 16
IZ – 20
DZ - 13
DL1
Vanat hav illu
Puttalam
#
Polonnaruwa
#
#
IL3
Kar adiyan Aru
Nalanda
#
Wariy apola
Chilaw
#
DL2
IM3
Kuliy apit iya
#
IL1
IU1
WM 3
Rambuk kana
Padiy at alawa
#
Rangala
Kandy
IL2
#
WM 3
#
Mahiyangana
#
#
Negombo
#
WL2
Vey angoda
IM1
WM 2
WU 1
WL3
IU2
#
Ginigathhena
Colombo
WU 2
#
WM 1
#
#
Wataw ala
#
Welim ada
#
WU 3
WU 1
WM 3& IM2
IU3
Bandarawela
Hatton
I(L1-L2)
#
Maskeliya
Ratnapur a
IU2
Badulla
Nuwaraeliya
#
I(U2-U 3) Haputale
#
IM2
WM 3
WL1
Kalutara
#
#
Kalaw ana
WL2
DL1
WM 1
IL1
Kat aragam a
#
WL4
WU 1
DL5
#
Hiniduma
Tiss amaharama
IM2
#
Middeniy a
#
Angunakolapeless a
I(L1-L3)
WL2
Galle
#
#
Matar a
#
#
Hambantota
Batticaloa
Observed Climate Changes in
Sri Lanka
RF anomaly in mm (from
1961-1990)
-1000
1940
1930
1920
1910
year
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
-1000
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
-500
1900
RF anomaly in mm
(from 1961-1990)
Annual rainfall variability in Badulla
1000
500
0
year
Rainfall
Annual rainfall variability in Ratnapure
2000
variability
1500
1000
500
0
-500
Season
Coefficient of Variation of all
Sri Lanka Rainfall
1931 – 1960
1961 - 1990
Northeast Monsoon (Dec. to Feb.)
31%
42%
First Intermonsoon (Mar. to Apr.)
23%
27%
Southwest Monsoon (May. to Sep.)
21%
16%
Second Intermonsoon (Oct. to Nov)
22%
23%
Annual (Jan. to Dec.)
12%
14%
The Coefficient of Variation of all-Sri Lanka Rainfall during the periods 1931-1960 and 19611990,
Tmin Anomaly in C
(from 1961-1990)
Annual minimum air Temperature anomaly trend in NuwaraEliya
1.5
y = 0.02x - 1.6757
1
R2 = 0.6888
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
1901 1909 1917 1925 1933 1941 1949 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997
year
Temperature
Tmin Anomaly in C
(from 1961-1990)
Annual minimum air Temperature anomaly Trend in Badulla
y = 0.0089x - 0.677
R2 = 0.4002
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1900 1909 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000
year
Minimum
Trend
Maximum
y = 0.0151x - 1.2269
R2 = 0.4512
3
2
Temperature
1
Trend
0
-1
-2
1999
1992
1985
1978
1971
1964
1957
1950
1943
1936
1929
1922
1915
1907
-3
1900
Tmax Anomaly in C
(from 1961-1990)
Annual Maximum air temperature anomaly Trend in Badulla
year
year
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1967
1961
1955
1949
1943
1937
1931
1925
1919
1913
y = 0.0209x - 1.6402
R2 = 0.6548
1907
1.60C / 100 years
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1901
Rate of change of
Annual Mean
Temperature
Tmax Anomaly in C
(from 1961-1990)
Annual Maximum air Temperature anomaly trend in
Puttalam
Impacts of Climate Change
Impacts - Agriculture
Through
Change of
Rainfall
Increased Temperature
Sea Level Rise

In Sri Lanka  if T increases by 0.5 0C

rice yield reduction by 5.9 %

Night Temperature (minimum Temperature)

Potato

tomato

Pest

warmer climate

 Pest population


enhanced re-production
Disease


Bacteria, Virus, Fungi
favors hot and humid environment


not dry and hot environment
in some regions


more disease occurrence
Or may difficult to control

Weeds

18 worst weeds

out of which 14 are C4 plants




Pig weed - C4


can withstand  T
C3 plants optimum T  15-20 0C
C4 plants optimum T  25- 30 0C
3 0C  T  240 times increase in biomass
Pest, Disease and Weeds  more occurrence


reduced yield, high cost of production
2 0C  T  30% reduction in crop yield only due to
changes of population dynamics of P, D & W
Impacts - Water Resources….
Impacts of Rising Temperature…
Changes of weather fronts
– dry regions become more dry
• drought frequency may increase - delayed SWM and short
duration of SWM
• intensity of drought may increase & long dry spells in wet season
• marked increase in inter annual, seasonal variability
Increasing evapo-transpiration
- high water loss from open water bodies
– enhance the drought condition
• minor tank cascades in Sri Lanka  high (surface area/depth)
ratio hence more vulnerable
Impacts of Changing Rainfall
Regime…
– high variability in seasonal rainfall
– high variability of monsoons
– strong, persistent and frequent El Nino events
– Intense rains
strong tendency for above normal rainfall in SIM
(Oct-Nov) in El Nino years
- Increased frequency of floods and
droughts affect
– agriculture
– water resources
– infrastructure
Changing Rainfall Regime…
• Problem of soil erosion
– steep slopes are highly vulnerable
– siltation of reservoirs
Polgolla - 44% silted by 1988 (12 years after its commissioning) now 2.8% per year
Rantambe - 4.3 % per year (by now 54%) – Uma Oya
Victoria - 0.0 8% per year
Minor tanks - 2.4% per year
- land degradation –marginal lands
Soil productivity reduces – Mid country tea lands
Average soil erosion in Upper Mahaweli - 115 mt/ha/yr
soil formation 1cm  100 - 400 years
Changing Rainfall Regime…

High intense rains

if daily RF exceeds 200 mm/day


high probability for land slides in prone
areas
NBRO estimates

12,500 ha are vulnerable to land slides
Digging for Water, Hambantota Dec 2001
Source: Dept of Social Service
A victim of Hambantota Drought
December 2001
Source: Dept of Social Services
Faith of Coconut Trees in Hambantiota
December 2001
Source: Dept of social service
Impacts of Sea Level Rise...
• In the coastal zone of Sri Lanka
– Approx. 24% of the land area and 32% of the population
– 65% of urbanized land area
– 80% tourism
– 65 % industrial out put
– commercial ports and fishery harbors
– principal road and rail infrastructure
– Important eco-systems
Adaptation Measures Taken
Agriculture
Some of the measures have already been introduced to meet
either the drought conditions or the salt water intrusion faced by
the country from time to time. Among these measures are:



The Department of Agriculture has undertaken a programme to breed
saline resistant rice varieties as an adaptation measure.
The Tea Research Institute (TRI) has been experimenting with covering
the tea planted area with mulch to reduce loss of moisture.
The Coconut Research Institute (CRI) and TRI have introduced drought
resistant varieties for planting in drought prone areas.
Water Resources
The relevant authorities have already been taking some of the
measures to face the shortage of water/slat water intrusion
during drought conditions. Among these are:





Planning the construction of a salt water barrier in Kelani River down
stream of Ambatale water intake.
Introduction of a new Water Resources Management Policy and an Act of
Parliament to encourage the rationale use of water and to dispel the
concept of water as a free good.
Popularizing the use of rain water harvesting, particularly in the dry zone.
Introduction of several water shed management programmes executed by
the Ministry of Forestry.
Introduction of the issuing of Environment Protection Licence as a
mandatory measure to industries that conform to effluent standards.
Energy
The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) has introduced several measures
such as:



Building thermal power plants to reduce the dependence on hydropower
as the main source of electricity.
Introducing a scheme to purchase electricity generated from small
hydropower plants, wind energy farms and solar photo-electricity plants.
Introduction of a demand side management scheme to encourage efficient
use of lighting and air-conditioning.
Coastal Zone


The Coast Conservation Department (CCD) has already adopted a Coastal
Zone Management Plan as early as 1990 and updated in 1995 to protect
the coastal zone from such natural phenomena as coastal erosion and
storm activity as well as human activities.
Out of a total shore line of 1585 km, about 270-380 km are only erosion
prone. Some of the measures mentioned above such as building of
revetments and groynes have been implemented to protect this shore
length from erosion. Regulations have also been brought in to prevent
development work within 300 km of shore line, breaking of corals and
sand mining.
On going Adaptation Studies ..


AIACC in the Coconut and tea Sectors in Sri
Lanka (AS – 12)
Ministry of Environment Programme


A grant from GEF, through UNDP to undertake
climate change studies including adaptation
studies.
Out of 40 proposals received, 11 were for
adaptation studies, 18 for vulnerability studies and
11 for mitigation studies. Out of these only 21
were selected for funding.
ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (AIACC)
IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI
LANKA
Participating Organizations
Coconut Research Institute (CRI)
 Tea Research Institute (TRI)
 Meteorology Department (MET)
 Natural Resources Management Services
(NRMS)
Managed by
Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of
Science (SLAAS)

Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka
ITEM
TOTAL EXTENT
EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND
REPLANTING
NEW PLANTING
QUANTITY UNIT
180,000 ha
2.77 %
1,085 ha
263 ha
TOTAL PRODUCTION
306,000 tonnes
High Grown
84,000 tonnes
Medium Grown
56,000 tonnes
Low Grown
166,000 tonnes
PRODUCTION EXPORTED
288,000 tonnes
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
18,000 tonnes
COST OF PRODUCTION
EXPORT EARNINGS
VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP
110 Rs/kg
700,000,000 US$
2.6 %
Global Tea Production 2001
Country
China
India
Sri Lanka
Kenya
Indonesia
Other
Total
Extent
kha
1,141
509
189
132
161
487
2,619
%
44
19
7
5
6
19
100
Production
kt
695
854
295
294
169
705
3,012
%
23
28
10
10
6
23
100
COCONUT PLANTATIONS
ITEM
TOTAL EXTENT
QUANTITY Units
439,000 ha
EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND
6.75 %
REPLANTING
714 ha
NEW PLANTING
834 ha
TOTAL NUT PRODUCTION
3,055 million
DESSICATED COCONUT
89,000 tonnes
COCONUT OIL
44,000 tonnes
COPRA
14,500 tonnes
FRESH NUTS EXPORTED
DOMESTIC NUT CONSUMPTION
COST OF PRODUCTION
EXPORT EARNINGS
VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP
29 million
1,832 million
3.27 Rs/nut
121,000,000 US$
2.2 %
Global Coconut Production 2001
Country
Extent kha
Production
M.nuts
%
%
Indonesia
Philippines
3,691
3,120
31
26
15,160
13,208
27
24
India
1,840
16
12,597
23
Sri Lanka
442
4
2,279
4
Thailand
326
3
1,117
2
Vietnam
165
1
936
2
Malaysia
226
2
563
1
2,035
17
9,977
17
11,845
100
55,837
100
Others
Total
Factors affecting crops
According to previous climatological studies;
 Rainfall
 Temperature
 Evapo-transpiration
 Relative
Humidity
 Solar Radiation
are identified as the major climate variables that
influence the yield when other external factors
(fertility, management, pest & diseases) are nonlimiting
OBJECTIVES



Project the climate change scenarios in the
coconut and tea growing areas based on the
global circulation model results down-scaled to Sri
Lanka.
Assess the impacts of climate change on
productivity of tea and coconut and socio
economic status of the people within the plantation
sector.
Identify adaptation options and assess their
feasibility of implementation
OBJECTIVES contd.

Build capacity of natural and social scientists engaged
in plantation research for undertaking assessment
studies incorporating impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation.

Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking funds
in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse effects of
climate change as provided in Article 4 of the UN
Framework
Convention
on
Climate
Change
(UNFCCC, 1992).
Downscaling of future climate
scenarios for Sri Lanka
Need for Downscaling

Since Sri Lanka is an Island

Resolution power of the grid points
of the GCMs are not sufficient
enough

High diversity of altitude from sea
level within short distance
Downscaling Tools

GCM Based Statistical Downscaling is used

SimCLIM Software - developed by IGCI,
University of Waikato, New Zealand
Baseline Climatology

ANUSPLIN Software – developed by
Australian National University (ANU) is
used to spatially interpolate the rainfall
and temperature fields with terrain
effect
1961-1990 Baseline average Rainfall in
January
1961-1990 Baseline average Rainfall in
June
1961-1990 Baseline average Mean
Temperature in January
1961-1990 Baseline average Mean
Temperature in June
General Circulation Model

HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)
GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)
Rainfall Scenarios under
A2 Storyline
January Rainfall in 2025
June Rainfall in 2025
Under A2 Storyline
Under A2 Storyline
January Rainfall in 2050
Under A2 Storyline
June Rainfall in 2050
Under A2 Storyline
GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)
Rainfall Scenarios under
B1 Storyline
January Rainfall in 2025
Under B1 Storyline
June Rainfall in 2025
Under B1 Storyline
January Rainfall in 2050
Under B1 Storyline
June Rainfall in 2050
Under B1 Storyline
GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)
Mean Temperature
Scenarios
under A2 Storyline
January Mean Temperature
in 2025 Under A2 storyline
June Mean Temperature in
2025 Under A2 storyline
January Mean Temperature in 2050
Under A2 storyline
June Mean Temperature in 2050
Under A2 storyline
GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)
Mean Temperature
Scenarios
under B1 Storyline
January Mean Temperature in 2025
Under B1 storyline
June Mean Temperature in 2025
Under B1 storyline
January Mean Temperature in 2050
Under B1 storyline
June Mean Temperature in 2050
Under B1 storyline
Conclusions

It is revealed that:



January (Northeast monsoon) rainfall is projected to decline in both
A2 and B1 scenarios with higher gradient in A2.
June (Southwest monsoon) rainfall is projected to increase in both
A2 and B1 scenarios with higher gradient in A2
Mean Temperatures are projected to increase in both scenarios
Conclusions

(From the Preliminary results)
In coconut sector,


contd..
the model predicted that the crop in the
intermediate wet zone is less vulnerable to climate
change than elsewhere.
In tea sector,


Under the B1 scenario, model predicted that tea
yield at low elevations is adversely affected while
at high elevation, it is favored by climatic change.
However, under the A2 scenario, model predicted
higher yields for both low and high elevation.
Acknowledgement
AIACC Project of Sri Lanka (AS – 12)
Let’s get together to control Global Warming
Thank you !!!