Transcript 09_Meiner - Astra

Climate change: an European
perspective
Andrus Meiner, EEA
1st International ASTRA Conference
“ARE WE PREPARED TO COPE WITH CLIMATIC CHANGES?
CONSEQUENCES OF THE WINTER STORM 2005”
May 18-20, 2006 Klaipeda, Lithuania
Role of EEA in mitigation and policy
adaptation strategies
•
The European Environment Agency is the EU body
dedicated to providing sound, independent information
on the environment in support to environmental policy
makers and for the general public
•
EEA is publishing reports on GHG emission trends and
mitigation, but recently on climate change impacts
(2004, new 2008), vulnerability and adaptation (2005)
•
In 2006 EEA will report on state of environment of the
coastal areas, that in limited scope also addresses the
climate change issues (framing the issue)
Air temperature
• Global temperature: + 0.7 0.2 °C over past 100 years. Projected (1990–
2100): + 1.4–5.8 °C
• Top 5 warmest years worldwide: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004
• Europe: mean annual +0.95 °C; Summer +0.7°C ; Winter +1.1°C. Projected:
+ 2.0–6.3°C
Data-sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU
European summer temperature 2003
• Very likely that greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of summer
temperatures as hot as 2003
• Such a heat wave is now four times more likely. By 2050 every other summer
could be as hot as 2003
Data-sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, Stott et. al. (in Nature, 2004)
Projected precipitation changes in 2080
• Precipitation is projected to increase in northern Europe but decrease in
southern Europe
• More frequent droughts and intense precipitation events are likely
Data-source: Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, B2 scenario
Water resources
• Temperature rise and changing precipitation are likely to exacerbate the water
shortage in southern and south-eastern (increasing demand for irrigation in
agriculture) and eastern Europe (increasing demand for households and
industry)
Data source: Henrichs and Alcamo, 2001. Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, baseline scenario
Vulnerable sectors
• Ecosystems and biodiversity
• Agriculture and forestry
• Water resources, flooding, water quality
• Coastal zones, marine resources, fisheries
• Tourism
• Energy (supply and demand)
• Built environment, infrastructure
• Human health
• Land management, regional planning (cross-cutting)
Vulnerable regions in Europe
Regions
Climate change impacts
Coastal zones,
floodplains and
wetlands
Changes in water quality due to algae blooms
Coastal erosion due to sea level rise
More frequent floods due to extreme events
Mediterranean
region
More frequent droughts and fires
Land degradation due to salinisation
Arctic, Greenland
Economic and cultural impacts on indigenous
communities
Loss of endemic species
Reduced seasonal sea ice
Thawing of permafrost
Mountain regions
Retreat of glaciers
Changes in water discharge
Changes in avalanche frequency
Less frequent and secure snow cover
Loss of endemic plant species
Vulnerable regions
River flooding events 1998-2005
• About 100 (river) floods: more than 700 fatalities, a million people affected
and 25 billion EUR in insured economic losses
Coastal zones
• Sea level is projected to rise for centuries (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
• 9% of all European coastal zones are below 5 m elevation (85% for NL, BE), potentially
vulnerable to sea level rise and related inundations
• Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
• Future increase in storm frequency and intensity (uncertainties)
Data-source: EEA, 2006, unpublished
Coastal zones
• Sea level is projected to rise for centuries (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
• 9% of all European coastal zones are below 5 m elevation (85% for NL, BE), potentially
vulnerable to sea level rise and related inundations
• Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
• Future increase in storm frequency and intensity (uncertainties)
Data-source: EEA, 2006 (forthcoming)
Economic losses from weather related events
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Costs of weather and climate related events double each decade
Since 1990, insured losses are on average $16 billion annually
2004 was costliest: $40 billion.
Annual costs of European flooding could increase by €100-120 billion by the 2080s on
top of the €6.5-8 billion paid today
Balancing mitigation and adaptation: “Avoiding the
unmanageable, managing the unavoidable,”
• EU Council target of limiting global temperature increase to
+2°C above pre-industrial levels needs global emission
reduction of 15% up to 50% by 2050 (from 1990
levels)
• Some global and European climate change is
inevitable due to historical built up of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, and time lags in climate and ocean
systems
• EU Council recognised the need to prepare for and adapt
to climate change in both developing and developed
countries, to complement mitigation policies
• Addressing climate change has costs, but also brings
benefits and opportunities e.g. for innovation
Substantial emission reductions are needed:
60 to 80% by 2050 (developed countries)
The EU target of max
+ 2 °C temperature
increase requires at
least stabilising at 550
ppm CO2 –equivalent.
Most likely a lower
target is needed, for
example of 450 ppm.
That would mean a
80% emission
reduction by 2050 for
developed countries
(from 1990 levels).
Various EU Member States are not on
track to their Kyoto targets
EU-15
Projects to meet its national burden
sharing (Kyoto Protocol) target through:
EU-10
Existing domestic policies and measures
Sweden, UK
Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia,
Poland and Slovak Republic
Existing and planned domestic policies and
measures
France, Germany,
Greece
Slovenia
Existing domestic policies and measures and use
of Kyoto mechanisms
Luxembourg
Existing and planned domestic policies and
measures and use of Kyoto mechanisms
Austria, Belgium,
Finland, Netherlands
Projects not to meet its national target
Denmark, Ireland, Italy,
Portugal, Spain
No Kyoto Protocol target
Malta, Cyprus
2.8
0.9
0.5
0.0
0.0
Cyprus
Malta
1.6
Estonia
1.8
Poland
80
Hungary
2.3
Belgium
2.8
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
2.8
Lithuania
4.3
Czech Republic
4.7
Ireland
Netherlands
Germany
0
13.0 12.8 12.0
Greece
10
Slovak Republic
12.8
Italy
20
France
23.2 23.1 22.3
21.8
Scenario projections
36.4 35.4
Finland
Spain
Slovenia
22
Denmark
Latvia
Portugal
Sweden
60
Austria
13.7
EU25
30
Indicative target
40
EU15
Percent
Faster growth is needed to achieve the EU goal
for electricity from renewable sources
90
EU indicative target
of 12% by 2010
70
55.9
50
40.0
9.6
7.9
Key EU (domestic) policies and measures
to reduce GHG emissions
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EU CO2 emissions trading scheme
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Electricity from renewable energy
Combined heat and power (CHP)
Energy efficiency (buildings, industry, household devices, cars)
Biofuels in transport
Recovery of methane from landfills
Reduction of fluorinated gases
Remove potentially environmentally harmful subsidies
Research and development
Raise awareness
Conclusions on mitigation
•
More efforts are required to reach the EU
Kyoto target
•
Substantial further reductions in global
GHG emissions are needed to achieve long
term targets and avoid unacceptable impacts
•
Strong global action is needed, while the
EU has to take its responsibility and continue
taking a leading role
•
To succeed everyone has to contribute –
governments, industries, private persons,
researchers, NGOs, media
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
exposure
sensitivity
impact
vulnerability
adaptation,
adaptive capacity
Adaptation strategies at national level
• National adaptation strategies are currently under preparation
in Denmark, Finland, France, Germany and the UK
• Adaptation measures are included in National Climate Change
Action Plans of several countries
• The latest Spatial Policy of the Netherlands recognises the
need for adaptation to climate change in spatial planning
• Several countries (e.g. Finland, Hungary, Portugal, the
Netherlands, Spain, UK) are undertaking comprehensive
multi-sector national assessments of climate change
• In many EEA member countries (e.g., Austria, France,
Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland),
adaptation measures are taking place in the context of natural
hazard prevention, environment protection, and sustainable
resource management
National adaptation strategies and
local variations
• Assessments of regional and sector
adaptation needs still rare
• More local variations and higher
relevance to regional and local
conditions is needed, because this is
where practical management is
happening
EU policy developments, adaptation
• Many EU policies, including environmental, do
not yet address climate change impacts
• Commission communication on post-2012
(Feb. 2005) and Environment Councils (2005)
mentioned adaptation, complementary to
mitigation
• Commission Communication (2004) on an EU
framework on flood risk mapping. Proposed
Floods Directive in 2005
• ECCP II started in October 2005, including a
working group on adaptation, 10 sectoral/issue
meetings April-June 2006, Green Paper in Nov
2006
Living by the sea
Very different and unequal
situations in socio-economic terms
Social deprivation (national definitions)
Expected climate changes pose a real challenge to the
population at sea to adapt, especially to sea level rise
Focus: Coastal systems
• Coastal zones comprise both sea and
land side
– sea/land interface
– catchment-coastal continuum
– natural flows along the coasts
• Regarding marine and coastal areas most
of climate change research is addressing
SLR and SST changes and their impacts
What impacts can climate change have on the
coastal system given the existing
anthropogenic pressures to the
coasts?
Often a region or
sector is already under
pressure today
25
Built up in the distance of the coast
Atlantic
by Regional Sea Basins
Baltic
Black Sea
20
Mediterranean
% of built up
North Sea
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13 14
Distance to the coast (Km)
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16
17
18
19
20
Historic land use change and impact
on coastal system
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Wide conversion of forest and grassland to agricultural area in
19th and 20th century
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This land use change was accompanied by massive soil erosion
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But development of river dams and abstraction of water has
reduced sediment discharges to the coast
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On a global scale, some 25 % of the current sediment load from land
to the coastal zones is trapped behind reservoirs.
In Europe, almost all main rivers are dammed. For ex. River Ebro
(Northern Spain) delivers 1% of solid discharge volume of 1900.
Sediment deficit at the coast increase vulnerability to climate
change impacts (SLR, storm surges, coastal erosion)
Result: weakened coastal systems
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Diversity of environmental and socioeconomic conditions at the coast create
regional differentiation of vulnerability
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The degree of adaptation to climate impacts
is determined by the adaptive capacity
(autonomous and planned) of the humanenvironment system
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The capacity of coastal system for
adjustment is small if the resilience of
coastal system is reduced or necessary
resources for adaptation are lacking
Information needs at the European level
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Higher spatial resolution and more frequent updates that allow target
local variations and have higher relevance to regional and local conditions
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Understanding of causal links - better distinction of climate change
impacts from other anthropogenic impacts (e.g. eutrophication and algae
blooms, coastal and open sea)
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Uncertainty of time horizon for forecasts
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There is still little evidence so far for direct sea level rise
It is difficult to realize that sea level will rise for centuries
Often indirect CC mechanisms are more pronounced
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Status of ecosystems - data on variability and resilience of ecosystems
(e.g. water quality, coastal habitats)
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More integration with in situ monitoring of nature and with social and
economic datasets to improve risk assessments
Bridging the gap between science
and practice
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More analysis of current land use and sediment
management practices at our coasts (non-climatic issues)
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Combine the results with predicted impacts of climate
change
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Improved interface from climate change research to
coastal management
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More relevant adaptation strategies
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Broader vision of integrated coastal management in to
coastal engineering
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Reduced vulnerability to climate change impacts?
What more is needed?
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Policy change: living with natural processes
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Legislation is only beginning to recognize ecosystem
approach and full threats of coastal squeeze
Spatial planning for coasts is only emerging (river basin,
coastal and flood risk management plans)
Cross-sectoral integration on coasts to be realized
(potential for SEA directive implementation)
Coastal protection still dominated by hard solutions or
beach nourishment
Multi-scale adaptation: EU, national and local/regional
level
–
Reflect diversity of EU coasts and be appropriate to
decision making of the coastal zone in question
Current adaptation measures: reactive
or proactive?
• Regional and local governmental organizations, NGOs and the
private sector have started to adopt new policies, regulations
and standards accounting for climate change (role of insurance
sector)
• Measures mainly in areas with a long tradition of dealing with
climate extremes such as flood defence
• Many adaptation actions have been initiated because of the
substantial losses from extreme weather events in recent years
• Policies and measures designed to address long-term climate
change impacts have not been developed to the same extent
Challenges for integration of adaptation
into other policies and measures
• Scientific uncertainty (low level of confidence in climate
change scenarios of extreme events at high spatial resolution)
• Policy action at regional/local level (need for stakeholder
involvement; gaps in knowledge on potential adaptation
policies and measures; lack of resources)
• Costs of adaptation and benefits assessments (gaps in
knowledge; how to identify “win-win” or “no-regret” options,
justified under many plausible scenarios)
• Coordination between sectors (how to enhance efficiency
and effectiveness of measures with many organisations
involved)
Possible adaptation framework
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Define the overall (European/national) policy objectives
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Determine priority sectors for adaptation action
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Propose decision making criteria
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Assess priority risks or opportunities (in each sector)
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Identify potential adaptation options
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Appraise and propose adaptation options (high priority, win-win
and no-regret)
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Define adaptation targets and indicators
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Integrate and/or link to policy framework at the EU, national and
sectoral level
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Implement policies/measures
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Monitor, review and revise if needed
Conclusions
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Need to develop policy framework at European, national
and regional/local levels
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Integrate (“mainstream”) adaptation into other policies
and measures
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Enhance research (EU and national) on vulnerability
assessments (including scenarios), good practices and costs
and benefits, with stakeholder involvement
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Improve management practices for non-climatic reasons, as
potential to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts
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Exchange experiences amongst relevant stakeholders
(public and private; EU/national/regional/local)
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Communicate risks clearly to those affected and the
actions they can take
Thank you for attention,
More information on EEA web page
http://eea.europa.eu
The European Environment Agency is the EU body
dedicated to providing sound, independent information
on the environment