Transcript LOCAL PRODUCT IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE Repackaging CPC …

Multi-Faceted Services of New
NWS Local Climate Products
Marina Timofeyeva,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA NWS
Contributors: Robert Livezey, Michael Brewer,
Annette Hollingshead and David Unger
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Outline
• Lessons of L3MTO implementation
• New local user needs
• What NWS can offer in response to these
needs?
• New local product: 3 Month Outlook of
Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts (3MOLEI)
with Rate of Local Climate Change
• 3MOLEI local variables developmental
work incorporates local climate
specificities and user needs
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation
Lessons
• Provides guidance for local users
CD83
SLC
Ogden
Heber
Pl. Grove
Logan
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
24 26 28 30
32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
48 50 52 54
L3MTO Implementation
Lessons
• Links NOAA National Centers (CPC,
NCDC) with Local Offices and local users
Expertise in
Metadata and
Observations
NOAA
NESDIS NCDC
Local Customer
Services and
Feedback
NOAA
NWS Regional
And Local
Offices
Expertise in data QC,
Homogenized
Data
NOAA
NWS NCEP
CPC
Expertise in
Monitoring and
Outlook Products
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation
Lessons
• Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)
– Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)
– Consistency in components’ interpretation
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation
Lessons
• Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)
– Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)
– Consistency in components’ interpretation
Help consists of:
• Definitions and Interpretation
Examples
• Benefits and Limitations
• Glossary
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation
Lessons
• Serves user educational purposes:
– Conveys visualization of probabilistic forecast
– Supplements outlook with historical climate
reference information
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
L3MTO Implementation
Lessons
• Contains user interaction component:
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
7-months
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Total 465
Aug-06
Number of Responces
– continuous customer feedback
New Local Customer Needs
• Climate Change: Information, Local impacts
– Western Governors Association
– California Water Resources
– Alaska oil companies; wild life management
• El Nino / La Nina: Information, Local impacts
– Canaan Valley, West Virginia, 2004 Congressional
Request
– Water Resources Management
– Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC)
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
NWS Climate Change
Guidance to Local Users
•
•
•
•
NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future
decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3
month average temperature or total precipitation
NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local
customers:
– Fact sheets on Climate Change
– Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change
– IPCC report facts
NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can
be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data,
available local and regional climate change products include:
– Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records
– Current rate of trends in climate variables
– Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables
Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change:
– National Climatic Data Center
– Earth System Research Laboratory
– National Oceanographic Data Center
– Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Rate of Local T/P Change
• Scientific justification for the product:
– NCDC Data: local trend is preserved, while
artificial step changes have been removed
– Methodology peer reviewed (Livezey, et al.,
2007)
– Predictability is currently being tested
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
Rate of Local T/P Change
• Although using a simple linear model, hinge reduces
sampling error by:
• Anchoring line on previous to 1976 observations (Hinge)
• Expressed in variable units per decade or per 30 years:
– 60 years range 48°F to 58°F, current rate of rise 1.7°F/10 years
60
55
50
45
1951
1961
1971
Data
1981
1991
Trend
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
2001
Rate of Change
Regional versus Local
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3 Month Outlook of Local
El Nino / La Nina Impacts
1941,1958,1966,
1973,1983,1987,
1988,1992,1995,
1998
0.0
0.00
0.05
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.15
0.15
0.20
0.20
0.25
1941-2000
0.25
0.30
0.30
• Based on composite analysis
• On trend adjusted data
• With significance test to avoid sampling error
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
25
3 Month Outlook of Local
El Nino / La Nina Impacts
• Forecast alters historical probabilities to forecast
for Nino 3.4SST (Higgins,et al., 2004)
HistoricForecast alters historical probabilities to forecast
Nino 3.4.
for Nino
Forecast
3.4 SST (Higgins, et al., 2004al Pro
Nino3.4
Warm
Neutral
Cold
Above
67%
33%
11%
Near
13%
53%
28%
Below
20%
14%
61%
Term
CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/sstcon34.txt
NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 200X
PROJECTION FRACTION
Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVE
JFM 7.5 0.080
0.393
0.527
FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:
station
station
Nino3.4
station
Nino3.4
station
Nino3.4
Pcategory
 Pabove
*
P

P
*
P

P
*
P
/ event
above
near / event
near
below/ event
below
Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):
JFM,Miami
Pbelow
 0.08* 0.61 0.393* 0.14  0.527* 0.2  21%
JFM,Miami
Pnear
 0.08* 0.28  0.393* 0.52  0.527* 0.13  30%
JFM,Miami
Pabove
 0.08* 0.11 0.393* 0.33  0.527* 0.67  49%
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3MOLEI Development
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD
3MOLEI Beyond T / P
NWS Local Offices Studies
AR Studies
•
Min/Max
temperat
ure and
precipitati
on
PR Studies
• Sea level
change
• Extreme
precipitation
events
CR Studies
• Number of tornado days
• Number of significant
tornadoes in the north
central U.S.
ER Studies
• 3MOLEI
methodology
test
SR Studies
•Extreme events in the Florida
WR Studies
dry season and their
• US SW river
relationship to ENSO, PNA,
flow
AO and NAO
exceedance
•Major extratropical (ET)
of flooding
storms
stage
•Severe weather (Tornadoes)
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD•Excessive rainfall and flooding
Summary
• L3MTO implementation tested a new approach in
developing local climate products
• Needs of local users include information and impact on
Climate Change and ENSO
• 3MOLEI implementation will include auxiliary product:
Rate of Local T/P Change
– Prototype stage testing is expected in May 2008
– Experimental release is expected in September 2008
• Local staff has been trained to provide climate services on
new local products
• Local studies at WFO level raise local climate expertise
and help to incorporate local user needs in identifying new
climate variables for potential operational forecast
products
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD