Transcript Global Warming: DC Metro Region Outlook

Global Warming:
DC Metro Region
Outlook
Raghu Raghavan
DC Metro
Science for the
People
Agenda
 Global Warming Problem:
Facing Facts
 Potential Impacts of Climate
Change on DC Metro Region
 Recommended Solutions
No Debate Anymore
 Global Warming largely generated by
human activity
 Global Warming Threat Serious
 Consensus about CO2
Emissions Reduction
DC Metro Area Growth
Predictions
 1.6 Million New Residents between 2005 and
2030
 1.2 Million new jobs
 Outer suburbs expected to grow faster(47%)
 Regional Core growth rate(18 – 20%)
Source: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) http://www.mwcog.org/
Projected Growth in Regional Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Under a Business As Usual Scenario
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
2005 GHG Emissions Estimates
for DC Metro Region
Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
2020 GHG Emissions Estimates
for DC Metro Region
Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
2030 GHG Emissions Estimates
for DC Metro Region
Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
Predicted Effects of Global
Warming in DC Metro Region
 Higher Air and Water Temperatures
 Increased but Uneven
Precipitation
 Rising Sea Levels
 Increase in weather
extremes
Predicted Effects of
Rising Sea Levels
The impacts of rising sea levels on the Chesapeake
Bay and its rivers include:
a) Heightened risk and vulnerability of inundation of
wetlands and other low-lying lands by storm surges
and coastal flooding;
b) Saltwater contamination of fresh water used for
drinking water and irrigation for some smaller
communities utilizing water from the Potomac estuary;
and
c) Degraded water quality in the Bay and its tributaries,
potentially increasing the risk of harmful algal blooms
that thrive from runoff, harming fish and crab
populations
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
Rising Temperatures
 Plants and animals currently
in the southeastern U.S
may migrate north into
the Mid-Atlantic.
 More frequent and
severe forest fires
expected, threatening
ecosystems and human
settlements.
.
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
Rising Temperatures
 More frequent heat waves.
 Occurrence of high ozone days.
Higher temperatures
produce favorable
conditions for
ozone-producing
chemical reactions
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
Local Effects (DC
Specific)
Air pollution's negative health impacts
 Leading cause of ozone and smog
 One in ten adults and children suffer from
asthma
 Typical summer in DC sends 2,400 people with
respiratory related diseases to the hospital and
causes 130,000 asthma attacks
 American Lung Association has rated DC's air
quality as an "F”
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Local Effects (DC
Specific)
Air pollution's negative health impacts
 Damage to children's lungs
 Birth defects affecting heart
 Harm to the fetus linked
to low birth weights
and cancer later in life
 Damage to the
cardiovascular system
increasing the risk
of heart attacks
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Rising Temperatures (Water)
 Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), would be
adversely impacted by higher water temperatures.
 Higher water temperatures, if coupled with both
increased pollutant runoff in the spring (as a result of
changes in precipitation patters)
and higher air temperatures
during summer months - will
likely lead to increased
frequency and duration of
algal blooms.
 Lead to
degraded water quality
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
DC Metro Region CO2
Emission Reduction Goals
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COG’s Climate Change Steering Committee
recommends establishing regional greenhouse gas
reduction goals for three target years:
2012 to force early action,
2020 a medium-range goal to encourage
expansion of recommended policies and
programs, and
2050 a long-range goal to stimulate support for
research into technologies and clean fuels needed
to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
DC Metro Region CO2
Emission Reduction Goals
COG’s Climate Change Steering
Committee’s Recommended goals are to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
 10% below business as usual by 2012;
 20% below 2005 levels by 2020; and
 80% below 2005 levels by 2050.
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
Comparison of Projected Regional Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Under BAU and Proposed
Emission Reduction Scenarios: 2005–2050
Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft
Solutions Roadmap?
Potential Solutions
 No consensus on solutions
 Science on solutions clouded by special
interests
Clean Coal
Nuclear Energy
Ethanol from Corn
Taking Action: Mitigating Emissions
From Energy Consumption
 Improve energy efficiency,
 Reduce demand for energy, and
 Develop clean (alternative) energy
sources.
Taking Action: DC Metro Area
Residential Sector
Accounts for 33% of total energy demand
 Weatherization,
 Using of efficient appliances,
 Installation of programmable thermostats
 High efficiency lighting.
Taking Action: DC Metro Area
Commercial/Industrial Sector
Commercial Sector : 46%
Industrial Sector:
9%
 High efficiency lighting
 Using of efficient appliances
Improving the energy performance of
commercial buildings can reduce building
energy consumption by 10-30 percent.
Taking Action: Expand Local
Renewable Energy Sources
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Solar
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Take Action DC: Congestion
Charge?
A congestion charge is a payment required of
drivers (or owners of vehicles) to enter a
designated area of a city, usually the core
business area which has the most traffic.
Reduces traffic
Air pollution levels and
Carbon emissions
Used in a growing number of cities around the
world (e.g., London, Bergen (Norway),
Stockholm (Sweden), and Singapore).
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Take Action DC: Congestion
Charge?
 Spike in carbon emissions from 2001 to
2005
 Two times the national rate
 Increases commuting
from the suburbs
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Congestion Charge (London)
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London experience with its congestion charge shows its
significant benefits:
Traffic congestion has been reduced 30%,
Carbon dioxide emissions declined by more than 15%,
Reductions in nitrogen oxide (8%) and particulates (7%).
Revenues accrued went to subsidizing the London Underground
and bus use,
Students now ride free,
Bus system being expanded,
Quickest and cheapest way to increase mass transit capacity.
The next stage will include emission-based charging, targeting
SUVs and other vehicles with the highest carbon emissions.
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Cost of congestion, and
revenues to reduce it
 Annual cost of congestion in the DC estimated to be as
high as $3.2 billion.
 Resources for the Future estimates $60 million in
revenue would result from a $4.70 toll for entering the
downtown area,
 Reduces congestion costs by $94 million per year.
 Just as London, DC should use congestion charge
revenues to expand bus service and progressively
lower their cost to riders.
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Environmental, economic and
social justice are inseparable
 Nearly 30,000 DC households are at or below
50% of poverty level
 11,000 live between 50% and 74%
 10,000 live between 75% and 99%
DC Households earning under 50% of the
Federal Poverty Level pay 49.8% of their
annual income for home energy bills.
Source: Fact Sheet: 17-492, “The Clean and Affordable Energy Act of 2008”
Environmental, economic
and social justice
 Greatest benefit to its working class
majority
 Low and middle income
residents
 Particularly their children
Other steps to reduce air pollution
and carbon emissions
 Enforce and improve the idling laws
 Implement a parking surtax
 Require businesses to give their workers a
cost-of-travel bonus if they travel by public
transportation
 Implement a hybrid and then fully electric
conversion program for the replacing the
District’s taxis.
 Encourage bicycle use by expanding bike
lanes
Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS
Conclusion