Transcript Impacts of Climate Change on Birds

Where did The Career begin?
Have you seen the eggs?
Good luck with larger birds
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Impacts of Climate Change on
Birds
a review of 256 years of research
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Climate in a nutshell
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What is climate? Average weather in an area
Köppen’s climate regions define zonal structure
of environmental conditions on earth
Weather is determined on macroscale by cells of
circulating air masses
Air pressure systems and their variability – ENSO,
NAO, AO etc. determine regional weather
variations and climatic regimes and regime shifts
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El Nino/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic
oscillation, Arctic oscillation
Teleconnections between systems. Definition
Teleconnection - A strong statistical relationship
between weather in different parts of the globe. For
example, there appears to be a teleconnection
between the tropics and North America during El
Niño.
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Climate Change in a nutshell
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Climate is always changing
But many of the previous ”climate changes” have been
stronger and some also faster
Current warming is taking place in a period when we should
expect an approaching Ice Age.
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An older model predicted shift of trend towards cooling around
2015
Are there counteracting effects on climate, which cause warming
and delay for some time the threatening approach of Ice Age?
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An important note:
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Human role in the current climate change is irrelevant for the
ecological study of impacts of climate change
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Climate Cycles, e.g. NAO
Human activities as a cause of current Climate Warming
We can study climate and weather impacts on ecosystem and its
components without committing ourselves concerning the role of human
impact in current warming
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NAO time series for the recent 55 years
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NAO was
predominantly positive
from 1982 to 1995
Winter NAO, most
often used in ecology,
has decreased since
1995 and the annual
NAO shows no trend
Will the temperatures
rise continuously
following the predicted
models?
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Nobody knows, I
guess
NAO, koko vuosi ja ed. talvi
lintuasema-aineistojen kausi
vuosi
talvi (XII-III)
4.000
Poly. (talvi (XII-III))
Poly. (vuosi)
y = -0.013x 2 + 0.3221x - 0.7814
R2 = 0.1522
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
-1.000
-2.000
-3.000
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
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Five models’ prediction
of future Ta change
60-90 °N
global
Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
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How Climate Warming may affect birds?
migratory tendency within species/population may change or
even vanish altogether (migrants become sedentary)
Timing of events (spring and autumn migration, breeding,
moult) may change. Lengths of migratory and sedentary
stages may change
Distribution ranges during breeding and/or winter may change
and this may lead to changes of community structure in both
summer and winter regions
Migratory routes and stopover sites may change
Abundances (population sizes) may change.
Traits of birds may change, eg. size, proportions, condition
measures
All these changes may be
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Behavioural and
or otherwise due to plasticity allowed by the reaction norm or
they may be evolutionary selective changes
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How we should approach Climate
Change Impacts?
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individualistic approach – track the response of individuals
from day to day through its annual cycle and whole life
community/ecosystem/geographical approach – monitor
range shifts and changes of community/ecostystem structure
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Should we first understand what happens at the lower organizational
levels of individual/population and predict the outcomes at higher
levels or
Should we study the Climate Change Impacts at all levels
simultaneously, and leave the connection from individual and
population to community at a later stage?
Taken that the models of Climate Change predict a correct order
of the magnitude and speed of change, we have so little time to
do all steps in the ”right” order, that it is better to proceed at all
fronts simultaneously
I will concentrate on examples of the individualistic approach in
this review
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Historical data and climate
variability
Long time series
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An example of useful Finnish long time
series: does the Wagtail break the ice in
spring (a premature picture)?
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130
Day (92= 1 April usually)
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Wagtail
("icebreaker")arrival
Ice Break of the River
Aura
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Ice Break 3rd degree
polynomial
Wagtaila arrival 4th
degree polynomial
90
80
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1998
1988
1978
1968
1959
1949
1939
1929
1919
1909
1899
1889
1879
1869
1859
1849
1839
1829
1819
1809
1799
1789
1779
1769
1759
1749
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Climate of Northern Europe –
previous warming period 1870-1940
Ten year moving averages of NAO indices
2
1.5
DJF
1
JFM
FMA
MAM
0.5
AMJ
MJJ
JJA
0
JAS
ASO
SON
-0.5
OND
NDJ
ANNUAL
-1
Linear (ANNUAL)
-1.5
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23
20
17
14
11
08
05
02
99
96
93
90
87
84
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78
75
72
81
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69
-2
Source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.data.html#naostatmon
Source: Kalela 1946
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Comparison of dependence of first arrival on
temperature between different climate
”regimes”
Temperature responses in different warming/cooling periods
In the Skylark, an early migrant,the spring temperature affects
significantly the timing of spring arrival (df = 1, F=18.59, p
<0.0001).
The temperature*period- interaction was not significant (df = 2,
F = 0.07, p = 0.9334) as in all thirteen study species.
In the Swift, a late migrant, timing of spring arrival was not
dependent on spring temperature (df = 1, F = 0.08, p = 0.7795).
The temperature*period interaction: df = 2, F = 0.14, p =
0.8724.
In the recent period first individuals are observed earlier because
of increased observer activity
Rainio et al. (unpublished)
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Lapwing – the classic example of range
shifts attributed to climate change
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Earlier warming impact studies summary
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Mainly range shifts were studied
Phenological or breeding studies were not
done
The role of other factors were discussed,
but there was little possibility to measure
their separate roles, e.g. habitat change
effects on wintering and/ or breeding
grounds
Best overviews are those of Kalela, e.g.
1949
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Recent Climate Change and its
Impacts
A review of behavioural changes at
individual and population levels
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Phenology – theoretical predictions
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spring migration
breeding
moult
autumn migration
wintering
length of stay in breeding
area
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number of breeding attempts
reproductive effort and result
time used for migrations
wintering duration
birds turn from migrants to
permanent residents
Phenological changes may
have consequences on
population parameters
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Spring arrival – all species one locality
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163 lajia kaikkiaan
82 lajista 35 saapumisvuotta
y = 0.0032x2 - 0.4031x + 109.51
2
y = 0.0029x - 0.4142x + 111.46
R2 = 0.5227
2
R = 0.5045
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150
120
90
60
30
1965
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1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
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…arrival time of migrants
(Lehikoinen et al. 2004, review)
Response type
Upper 95%
Number of time series
(unit)
Lower 95%
Average response
confidence limit
confidence limit
Trend, FA
(days/year)
590
-0.342
-0.373
-0.403
128
-3.382
-3.959
-4.535
203
-2.472
-2.901
-3.331
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-0.137
-0.100
-0.223
149
-1.350
-1.636
-1.921
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-1.433
-1.761
-2.089
NAO, FA
(days/unit change of NAO-index)
Local temperature, FA
(days/ ºC)
Trend, MMT
(days/year)
NAO, MMT
(days/unit change of NAO-index)
Local temperature, MMT
(days/ ºC)
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Autumn departure – all species one
locality
Syysmuutto
400
Viimeinen havaittu
350
300
250
200
y = 0.2298x + 286.47
2
R = 0.3022
150
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
Average delay of 5 days 1976-1999,
Half of the advancement of spring pmigration
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…departure time of migrants
(Lehikoinen et al. 2004)
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Dependence of
departure dates on
temperature are less
well understood and
more variable
In Rybatchi
(Kaliningrad d.) timing
of autumn migration is
determined by spring
arrival and hence
spring weather
This contradicts the
general prediction of
later departure
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Things are more variable and
more complicated than simple
analyses suggest
More detailed studies with well know
model species, e.g the Pied
Flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca
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A
5 Jun
H
A
J
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1 Jun
29 May
Arrival time
Arrival of the Pied Flycatcher in Finland
Ahola et al. (2004)
Malaga
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Cagliari
5%
27 Apr
23 Apr
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
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Difference between medians of
arrival and laying (days)
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9 May
B
Bron Lyon
Md
13 May
Hamburg
Bamberg
Tortosa
17 May
1 May
Turku
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De Bilt
21 May
5 May
Växjö
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95%
25 May
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 199522
2000
Year
…and more complicated:
responses of different sexes (Rainio et al. unpubl)
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Do migratory distances change?
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Expectation:
migratory species
may start to
winter closer to
the breeding areas
The Greenfinch
appears to behave
as expected
(German data)
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Do migratory distances change?
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But the Starling
behaves in
another way
The reason to the
difference is
something else
than winter
weather, perhaps
changes in
agriculture and
waste
management
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Do migratory distances change?
Summary of the first more extensive
analysis
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German recoveries
have been analyzed 15
(Source: Fiedler,
Bairlein & Köppen
10
2004)
Many other sources
of variation
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Distribution of
observed changes in 0
a haphazard sample
of 30 species in the
figure show slight
average tendency
towards shortening
Finnish recoveries
not yet available
neg sig
neg
pos
pos sig
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Condition improvement with climate
amelioration? – NAO response
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Breeding performance
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relationship of breeding success and time
 Are there general rules?
shifts to earlier start
 does it mean improvement of breeding success?
 does it mean increased opportunities to second
broods?
 or something else
 The critical points are
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the degree of change – a few days advancement need
not mean anything, and
Another thing is to look what the ”food of birds is doing”
as a response to local climate changes
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…of breeding time
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intraspecifc spatial var.
Visser et al.
interspecific
Crick et al. 1997: BTO
Nest Record Scheme
65 species, 1971-95
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earlier
20 of these statistically
significantly
1 sign. later
Crick & Sparks 1999:
36 species,1939-95
57 % earlier
37 % significantly so
31/36 timing of breeding
explained by temperature
and/or precipitation
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Temperature effects on breeding
time
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Dunn (2004) an
”availability” sample of
observational data for
5-60 years per species
timing is temperature
related in most
(temperate) species,
79% (n=57 species)
median advancement
2.3 days/°C in this
sample (range from no
effect to 7 days/°C)
Finnish data not yet
available
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n of species
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15
10
5
0
-6
-4
-2
0
advancement (days/degree)
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What would this mean in the
future?
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linear extrapolation:
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mild vs. strong scenarios of warming
by 2100 would mean advancement of
breeding by less than a week vs. two
weeks
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Visser, Both and Lambrechts (2004)
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this is probably too simplistic, because
”there is no a priori reason to expect
that all components of food chains will
shift their phenology at the same rate”
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Mismatch of breeding time with
food
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…mismatch of food availability and
breeding
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Invertebrates are responding directly and fast to
phenological changes, warming of spring and
accompanying plant phenology
Birds respond slower for one or other reason
mismatch of timing of maximal food availability and
breeding follows
Pied Flycatcher in the Netherlands (Both et al. 2001)
 timing of migration has not followed climate
change (but cf. our results in a more northern
study area)
but the sedentary Great Tit is also suffering from
mismatch, only 1-2 days shift against 5 days in food
 prebreeding conditions may preclude the females
from laying(?)
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Changes of breeding effort and
success
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very little and variable information
so far
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Järvinen (1994): clutch size
higher in warmer springs in
Lapland; Winkel & Hudde
(1997): clutch size large in
warmer and earlier springs in
Pied Flycatcher
Clutch size is increasing with climate
warming, but
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the mismatch cases appear to
contradict this
And even in the same target
species other situations exist
Sanz (2002): no change in clutch
size in Tits
Best current generalisation is
perhaps that response in clutch size
varies among species and does so
also within species between areas
Clutch size of pied flycatchers
7,0
6,8
6,6
Clutch size
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6,4
6,2
6,0
5,8
5,6
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR
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Impacts on birds: summary
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Changes of
 arrival time of migrants ***strong evidence
 departure time of migrants *weak evidence
 shortening of migration, giving up migration
**some evidence
 of breeding time ** medium evidence
 of breeding performance *weak evidence
 of timing of moult ohardly studied at all
 mismatch of food and breeding *medium evidence
 annual survival *weak evidence
 population trends (increase/decrease) *weak
evidence
 distributions: northern and/or southern borders
*weak evidence
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Kaarlo Linkola 1923
when studying plant phenology
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