Transcript Sensitivities (% K−1) of the 99.9th percentile of

SUSTAINABILITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN
THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE AND MULTIHAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT:
MULTI-SECTOR R & D PRIORITIES
K J Ramesh
Adviser & Scientist-’G’
Ministry of Earth Sciences
New Delhi
Issues Central to the Sustainability
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We will have to approach the issue of sustainability at three system levels global, social and human. All the three systems are crucial for sustaining
existence of humans and preserving our environment.
The global system is essentially the earth system, atmosphere, oceans,
cryosphere, geosphere and biosphere. This system provides energy,
resources and ecosystem to survive. Ocean is an important component of the
earth system and control weather and climate and influence biota. Ocean
makes the planet Earth habitable. We know that the earth system influences
all our activities and vice-versa.
The social system comprises political, economic, industrial structures created
by us to advance our development. It is believed that development is linked
to economic growth and technological advancement. We have also seen such
developments may lead to environmental related issues.
The human system involves factors responsible for survival of individual
human beings and closely linked to social system. The healthy functioning of
the human system depends on our lifestyle and values. Human beings are
mainly affected by inequalities in the social system.
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During last two centuries or so, after the industrial revolution, we have seen that
human and social systems have significantly affected our environment and has
become major driver of influencing the earth system.
The earth system components, especially carbon cycle and ocean acidification, sea
level changes, loss of biodiversity and modern-agriculture induced pollution of
reactive nitrogen and phosphorous, have reached to level which can potentially
alter the equilibrium among the components of the Earth system .
Global efforts in the recent few decades has been to augment global ocean
observation system to study the role of oceans, especially capture climate change
signatures, conservation and sustainable use of marine living resources and coastal
zone management. Though we have made significant progress in global ocean
observations, we need to augment and sustain such observations for very long
time.
Our focused observations are related to sea temperature, pCO2, sea level rise and
changes in mass, bio-geochemical measurements, micro-nutrients and trace
elements for marine ecosystems dynamics and carbon cycling, microbial
oceanography, etc.
These observations need to be assimilated into improved Earth System
Models(ESMs) to forecast impact on productivity of marine waters with improved
accuracy and reliability.
Biogeochemical Cycles
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The alteration of the global nitrogen cycle is even
more dramatic through fertilizer production and
transforming the inert form of nitrogen into
biologically available forms
At the continental to regional scale sulphur
emissions have altered the acidity of terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems, at the same time as
increasing the aerosol content of the atmosphere
and consequentially the Earth’s albedo.
Context
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Drive for economic growth and social upliftment is generating
new disaster risks. Increasing urbanisation leading to unstable
living environment is an example.
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1950
<30% of worlds 2.5 billion people lived in an urban setting.
1998
~45% of worlds 5.7 billion people lived in cities
2035 (as per UN) ~60% of worlds 8.5 billion people will live in cities
The population density in these urban centers and concentrations
of economic activity will make these areas more vulnerable. And
new cities are coming up undesirably in high risk zones,
concentrating wealth, physical structures and infrastructure
together in the high risk zones.
Development processes are thus currently largely associated
with risk accumulation and not risk reduction.
Context
Climate Change
•
Impact of human activities on climate
systems is unequivocal.
•
Observed changes in climate over the
Indian region:
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An increase of 0.4oC in the last 100
years
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Substantial changes in
precipitation on a spatial scale
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An increase in intensity of heavy
precipitation events
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Rise in sea level along the Indian
coast @ 1.06-1.25 mm/year over
last 40 years
•
Climate projections indicate
Rise in temperature by 2-4oC by
2050s
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Decrease in number of rainy days
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Increase in intensity of rainfall
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Adverse impacts on key economic
sectors and vulnerabilities of
climate sensitive regions
Climate Change
Impacts
 Water Security
 Food security
 Energy Security
 GDP and Development
Adaptation
Priorities
demand
deliberate adjustments in natural or
human systems and behaviours
Moisture/Water conserving practices;
hybrid selection; crop substitution;
conservation specific stress tolerant
breeds; improved farm management
practices
Observed Rainfall Trends over India
Source: Goswami
et al., Science, Dec., 2006
Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events
45
Frequency
40
9-point Filter
35
25
20
15
10
5
Year
Rajeevan et al. 2008, Geophys. Res. Letters
2009
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
1937
1933
1929
1925
1921
1917
1913
1909
1905
0
1901
Frequency
30
One–Day Extreme
Rainfall Records
During 2010
2010
Death toll due to heavy rains /
floods in different parts of the
country, during the monsoon
season >500
(mostly from northern and
north-western parts).
Heavy rainfall events in
November 2010 took a toll of
more than 50 people from
peninsular parts (AP, TN and
Karnataka) of the country.
STATION NETWORK
HEAVY RF > 10 CM
Very HEAVY RF > 15 CM
Rajeevan et al. 2008, Geophys. Res. Letters
Projected changes (2030)- Water
Water yield –
Himalayan region: likely
to increase
North Eastern region:
Reduction
Western ghats: Variable
water yield changes
projected across the
region
Coastal region: general
reduction in water
yield
Impact Assessments - 2040-60
Agriculture
4.5t/ha
(Control)
Water
Coastal zones
4.5/ha
(Climate
Change)
2.5t/ha
(Control)
2.5/ha
(Climate
Change)
Malaria
Acute physical water
scarce conditions
Constant water
scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular
stressed conditions
Rare water
shortages
Forests
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
T W Open for months
4-6
Tropical Seasonal Forest
Boreal Evergreen
7-9
CA
RN
IC
OB
AR
10-12
N.A
Tundra
• The
globally
averaged
combined land and ocean
surface temperature data show
a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to
1.06]°C over the period 1880–
2012,
when
multiple
independently
produced
datasets exist.
• The total increase between the
average of the 1850–1900
period and the 2003–2012
period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85]
°C, based on the single longest
dataset available
• Due to natural variability, trends
based on short records are very
sensitive to the beginning and
end dates and do not in general
reflect long-term climate trends.
• As one example, the rate of
warming over the past 15 years
(1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to
+0.15] °C per decade), which
begins with a strong El Niño, is
smaller than the rate calculated
since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12
[0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade
• Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is low prior
to 1951 and medium afterwards.
• Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has
increased since 1901 (medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951).
• For other latitudes area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low
confidence.
limited, medium, or robust
low, medium, or high
very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and
typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence
•To indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely
90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not
33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%,
exceptionally unlikely 0–1%
•Additional terms
(extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not
>50–100%, and extremely unlikely 0–5%)
•To Describe the available evidence:
•For the degree of agreement:
•A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers:
Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the
changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century.
Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red)
Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to
the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios
• The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th
century has been larger than the mean rate
during the previous two millennia (high
confidence). Over the period 1901–2010, global
mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m
• It is very likely that the mean rate of
global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5
to 1.9] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 2010,
2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm yr–1 between 1971 and
2010 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6]mm yr–1 between
1993 and 2010. Tide-gauge and satellite
altimeter data are consistent regarding the
higher rate of the latter period.
Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain about
75% of the observed global mean sea level rise (high confidence). Over the period 1993–2010, global mean
sea level rise is, with high confidence, consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from
• ocean thermal expansion due to warming:
(1.1 [0.8 to 1.4] mm yr–1)
• changes in glaciers:
(0.76 [0.39 to 1.13] mm yr–1)
• Greenland ice sheet:
(0.33 [0.25 to 0.41] mm yr–1)
• Antarctic ice sheet:
(0.27 [0.16 to 0.38] mm yr–1) and
• land water storage:
(0.38 [0.26 to 0.49] mm yr–1)
[100 Gt yr−1 of ice loss is equivalent to about 0.28 mm yr−1 of global mean sea level rise]
Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the
scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–2100 of
(a) annual mean surface temperature change,
(b) average percent change in annual mean
precipitation,
(c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent
and
(d) change in ocean surface pH.
Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative
to 1986–2005.
• The number of CMIP5 models used to calculate
the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper
right corner of each panel.
• For panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions
here the multi-model mean is small compared to
internal variability (i.e., less than one standard
deviation of internal variability in 20-year
means).
• Stippling indicates regions where the multimodel mean is large compared to internal
variability (i.e., greater than two standard
deviations of internal variability in 20-year
means) and where 90% of models agree on the
sign of change
• In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for
1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the
century.
The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the
projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models (number
of models given in brackets) that most closely reproduce the
climatological mean state and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic
sea ice extent is given in light blue colour
Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and
global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century
relative to the reference period of 1986–2005
Eight National Missions
on Climate Change
National Solar Mission
National Mission for Enhanced Energy
Efficiency
National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
National Water Mission
National Mission for Sustaining the
Himalayan Eco-system
National Mission for a Green India
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for
Climate Change
Sustainability of Natural Resources
• Principles of science and Technology based resource management are
developed, and prospects for sustainability are to be explored.
• Three generic categories of resource are analyzed: exhaustible,
living/environment/ecosystem, and renewable.
i) Emphasizing the lifecycle of exploitation including exhaustion,
exploration and substitution.
ii) Exploring population dynamics under natural and harvested
regimes for fisheries and forests.
iii) Water is treated in terms of quantity and quality. Throughout,
the intersection of natural, economic, and political behavior
needs to be explored
Key Questions of Sustainability,
The S & T needs to answer
• Identification of linkages among the global
hydrological cycle, climate variability and change,
and global biogeochemical cycles?
• How and to what extent is human activity altering the
global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles?
• What is the limit of the Earth system for the
renewability of freshwater and major biogeochemical
constituents needed to support life?, and
• How much human activity have to change to allow
the major cycles of the Earth System to return to
more ‘natural’ dynamic and sustainable equilibrium?
Applications of GIS for Sustainability
• Inventory of species,
• Measure environmental impact,
1
Environment
• Trace pollutants
• Environment management and planning
• Topographical information
• Managing crop yields,
2
Agriculture
• Monitoring crop rotation techniques,
• Projecting soil loss for individual farms or entire agricultural regions.
• Assess groundwater,
3
Hydrology
• Visualize watersheds,
• Lakes and Wetlands
Applications of GIS for Sustainability
•
4
5
6
Land use
Geology
Forestry
Visualize and plan the land use needs of cities, regions, or even
national governments
•
Helps in decision making for future growth development
•
Analyze soils and strata,
•
Assess seismic information,
•
Create 3-dimensional displays of geographic features.
•
Managing and planning of forests
•
To assess conditions through historical analysis, stand inventory, soil
types, changing weather patterns, and land-use practices
•
Forest fire mapping
•
Monitor and analyze the temporal and spatial change in forest
ecosystem sue to natural and man-made disturbances.
Applications of GIS for Sustainability
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•
To locate areas prone to natural or man-made disasters.
•
Generate a flood forecasting model to identify affected parcels to
Risk
management •
•
prioritize for remediation or damage assessment.
To prepare for future assessment of risks
Identification of critical prone areas to Landslides and other
disasters
•
Planning, engineering, operations, maintenance, finance, and
administration functions
8
Water/waste
water
industry
•
Assessing water quality and quantity
•
Assess relationships such as runoff and groundwater purity
•
To monitor water quality changes within a water body such as a
river or bay
Flood level During 1998 floods
Surat
Floods:
1998
Source:- Surat CDP
Flood Above 6 feet
Flood 4’-6’
Flood 2’-4’
Flood 0’-2’
Flood level During 2006 floods
Surat
Floods:
2006
Source:- Surat CDP
More than 10’ Depth
5’-10’ Depth
4’-6’ Depth
•
Cause of the urban heat island:
– Modification of the land surface
by urban development which
uses materials which effectively
retain heat;
– Waste heat generated by energy
usage is a secondary contributor.

The urban canopy layer (UCL) is the layer of air
closest to the surface in cities, extending upwards to
approximately the mean building height.
Above the urban canopy layer lies the urban
boundary layer (UBL), which is 1km in thickness.
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Urban heat island
Remedial Options (to reduce by ~ 2.0oC)
Densifying the Tree cover under Urban Forestry
Soil Moisture Conservation
Rainwater Harvesting
Source: Research paper by Swarnima Singh
On GIS APPLICATION IN URBAN HEAT ISLAND: A
CRUSADING ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVER TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
Urban Heat Island
•
Remote sensing instrument used for UHI: ASTER:
Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and
Reflection Radiometer
•
Advanced along Track Scanning Radiometer
(AASTAR) and PALSAR are used for estimating
surface temperature and land cover change
•
By utilizing remote sensing data and implementing
GIS mapping techniques, change detection over a
period of time of the urban areas can be monitored
and mapped.
Source: Research paper by Swarnima Singh On GIS APPLICATION IN URBAN HEAT ISLAND:
A CRUSADING ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVER TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Spatial Pattern of Urban Heat Island (an overlay of
AASTER AND PALSAR data analysis)
Land Use / Land Cover
 Space-borne remote sensing data can
be used for estimation of biomass and
biodiversity,
 Geo-spatial modeling techniques can
be employed to estimate carbon
sequestration patterns
Priorities for India as Reflected in
NAPCC
Mission
Targets
Sustainable • Improvements in energy
efficiency in buildings;
Habitat
• Better urban planning and
modal shift to public
transport
• Improved management of
solid and liquid waste
• Improve ability of habitats to
adapt to climate change
• Measures for improving
advance warning systems for
extreme weather events
• Conservation
through
appropriate changes in legal
and regulatory framework.
Deliverables
• Development
of
sustainable
habitat standards that lead to
robust development strategies
while simultaneously addressing
climate change related concerns
• Preparation of city development
plans
that
comprehensively
address adaptation and mitigation
concerns
• Preparation of comprehensive
mobility plans that enable cities to
undertake
long-term,
energy
efficient and
cost effective
transport planning and
• Capacity building for undertaking
activities
Development of Indices for the
Assessment and Monitoring of the Sustainable
Storm Water Management
Mission
Sustainable
Habitat
Targets
Parameters/indicators
are
generally in the form of indices,
for systematic and scientific
assessment of situation, progress
and deficit
Deliverables
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Master Plan Index
Natural Drainage System Index
Drainage Coverage(Constructed) Index
Permeability Index
Water bodies Rejuvenation Index
Water body Vulnerability Index
Water logging Index
Area Vulnerability Index
Flood Moderation Index
Drainage Cleaning Index
Complaint Redressal index
Climate Change Stress Index
Storm water discharge quality Index
Sewage Mixing Index
Preparedness Index/ Early Warning Index
Rainfall Intensity Index
System Robustness Index
Tidal Index
Rain water Harvesting/Artificial Ground
water Recharge Index
Appropriate S & T tools for urban flooding are to be
identified and customized in the following areas
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Urban Flood probability assessment
Urban Flood impact assessment (in terms of extent, duration and
cost)
Development
of
safe,
cost-effective,
sustainable
and
environmentally sound operation and management of urban
drainage (sewage/ storm water/ storage) systems
Early Warning Decision support for planning multi-departmental
emergency response planning
Operational planning of Urban Water Sheds (surface water
management and storage systems)
Identifying targeted Urban Flood recovery measures and
methodologies
Evolve integrated pathways to increase resilience and robustness
(for the prevention and mitigation of flood risk in urban areas).
Priority: Flood impacts are to be estimated on
a much higher level of detail
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Hence, it is necessary to opt for an impact based urban flood
management (UFM) by taking the consequences of urban
floods as a starting point for the development of responses (by
developing new tools that map and analyze flood impacts by
fully accounting for concentration, differentiation and
complexity of the urban environment.
Further, such an attempt should involve the assessment of
economic impacts of floods on the existing historical/legacy
infrastructure as well as the development of new flood
resilient areas capable of dealing with larger degrees of
uncertainty about the occurrence of extreme flood events.
UFM Prerequisites: Regular Monitoring
of Human and Other Factors
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Land Use changes (sealing of permeability surfaces;
deforestation etc. leading to decrease of infiltration and
increase in surface run-off)
Details of occupation of the flood plain and obstructing
natural drainage and flows
Upstream drainage efficiency (actual carrying capacity)
status
Urban sewage and storm water drainage efficiency (nonmaintenance) status
Varying nature and frequency of rain storms (climate
change or otherwise)
Estimating Quantum of water
accumulation over the Urban Areas
S. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Quantum of Water for 1-Cm of Rainfall Received
1-Sq Km area collects about 9.96million liters of water
Per every 1-Cm of Rainfall Received
Name
Area
(Sq. Km)
Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Chennai
Hyderabad
Bangalore
India
1,485
484
531
414
583
534
3,166,285
Quantum of
Water
(in million liters)
14,791.5
4,820.6
5,288.8
4,123.4
5,806.7
5,318.6
3,15,36,198
On reaching the ground surface, rainfall either
seeps into the ground or flows over as runoff
that eventually into drains, rivers/lakes etc. as
per the designed urban drainage network
Factors that are critical for the traverse of
rain water after it falls
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The rate of rainfall - A lot of rain in a short period tends to run off
the land into streams rather than soak into the ground.
The topography of the urban land - Topography is the
gravitational slope of the land -- the hills, valleys, uneven
upward/downward slopes. Water falling on unlevel land drains
downhill until it becomes part of a stream, finds a hollow place to
accumulate, like a lake, or soaks into the ground (evolving a high
resolution 1:5000 to 1:10000 scale topography is essential for
mapping gravitational drainage channels in the urban
environment for locating water harvesting structures)
Soil conditions – Identification of suitable zones (high adsorbing soil
with low permeability, low adsorbing soil with high permeability) the
urban land is critical for effectively planning for surface runoff
reduction
Factors that are critical for the traverse of
rain water after it falls
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Density of vegetation and Land Cover - It has long been
known that plant growth helps decrease erosion caused by
flowing water. Transforming segments of land with
plant/grass cover with underlying types of soils as a part
of developmental planning of urban areas, effectively
slows the speed of the water flowing on it and thus helps
to keep soil from eroding over the downward slopes.
Amount of urbanization - Restoration of natural
drainage channels and re-constructing pervious pavements
and parking areas is to be attempted to reduce the
surface runoff flowing beyond the drawing capacity of
storm water drains along side of the roads)
Factors to be accounted for Urban
Flood Impacts
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
Changing Profile of Exposure Vs Flooding
Changing Profile of Vulnerability Vs Flooding
Changing Profile of Flood Intensity/Frequency Vs
Flooding
Local Authority level issues
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local authorities and decision-makers responsible for flood security are to
learn to how as to make the best use of the continuous flow of rainfall
monitoring and urban flood warning information from the national system
although such information, even backed with regular technical capacity
improvements at NMHSs, may still found to be insufficient in meeting the
needs of the local authorities.
Hence, this component of the urban flood early warning systems is decisive
in shaping the local flood-warning system (LFWS), in particular the
components which supplement the national monitoring and urban flood
warning systems with local scale monitoring networks as planned in
Mumbai and being planned for Hyderabad. Essentially, the solution has
to take into consideration not just the level of flood risk in a given
terrain, but also the capabilities of the local authorities as well.
Emerging Urban Local Flood
Forecasting Possibilities

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Real-time analysis of
1.
Actual precipitation intensities and accumulated amounts, that are collected by
Doppler Weather Radars (DWR)
2.
Local scale high density rainfall measuring networks of the local authorities,
satellite derived quantitative precipitation estimates etc.,
3.
Are to be assimilated in high resolution urban scale NWP models (1-5km grid
scale) by using a combination of in situ and telemetry systems for real time
data collection.
Practical ultra short range assessment(nowcasting) of urban scale heavy rainfall is
currently less than 6-8hours with modern nowcasting systems (intelligent weather
and rainfall analysis systems with quick generation of 3-D local scale visual
images with web-GIS interfaces for web hosting ultra short term forecasts).
Nowcasting products will have to be used as an input to drive customised urban
scale hydrological models for generating spatial scenarios of potential run-off
leading to urban flooding expected in segments of urban areas where rate of
estimated run-off generated by the high intensity rainfall exceeds the designed
drainage capacity.
Immediate Future Prospects


Although, currently local authorities and their emergency
response services in India are largely operating truly basing
on general rainfall forecasts formulated by IMDs weather
forecasters for larger regions, and with low density of rainfall
distribution on recent rainfall (a sparse and non-automated
rainfall measurement network, areas not covered by rain
intensity measuring DWRs), the on-going initiatives for
rendering improved quality of hydro-meteorological
services will certainly improve the local scale urban flash
flood risk mapping and delivering capabilities to generate
appropriate early warnings in the immediate future.
Early Warning of Urban Floods
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Currently, nowcasting systems with ultra-short-term forecasts (6-8hours) with all
supporting tools for weather forecasters are used for operational practice.
Urban area hydrological forecasts will have to be worked out for a relatively
smaller urban sectors and also covering larger-scale sub-urban areas for rendering
effective local scale urban flood warnings.
Efforts are on for the development/calibrating hydrological models for their
hydrological response units (the small urban/catchment areas).
The connection between the precipitation thresholds, reaching to the dangerous
levels in the sections controlling small urban sectors with torrential rainfall regime, is
to be established by correlating the characteristics of high flood with its triggering
factors (balance between likely run-off Vs drainage). On the basis of these
correlations, there can be unique pre-established thresholds of the precipitation
characteristics (amount, duration, etc.), which can cause local urban floods.
Interpretation and effective utilisation of the emerging Meteorological and
Hydrological Situation on continuous basis by the local urban government
authorities is critical for effectively responding to the emerging urban flood
scenario.
FRAMEWORK FOR URBAN
FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT



Due to very nature of the urban settlements, with human population and various
economic activities putting tremendous pressures on the natural resources of the
region, it is evident that various development activities influence and interact with
each other.
1.
Urban water supply and sanitation
2.
housing settlements
3.
pollution control
4.
transport systems
5.
industrial activities
6.
health and social welfare
These activities interact and influence each other along side the flood risks and the
way such risks are prevented from turning into disasters.
In addition certain other regional development activities beyond the municipal limits
such as agricultural production, watershed management, energy production, and
environmental protection, among others, also effect the flood risk management in
urban areas. It is therefore, imperative that flood risks are to be mainstreamed in all
these related activities.
Key questions of land use/cover
change research

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
What are the major drivers of land-use/cover change
from the local to the global scale?
How has been the global land cover changed over the
last 300 years?
How will changes in land use affect global land cover in
the next 50 to 100 years?
How do current decisions and biophysical processes
affect the sustainability of land use at various spatial
scales?
How do changes in land use/cover affect climate,
global biogeochemical cycles, the global water cycle,
soils and biodiversity, and vice versa?
Multi-Hazards
(Volcanoes; Earthquakes; Cyclones and other high
impact weather phenomena)

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


We need to do basic science to better understand the dynamics
of a particular phenomenon.
We need to develop observational tools to analyse such events
and treat associated physical processes explicitly.
We need to develop experimental and theoretical tools to help
understand such events.
We need to develop modelling systems to predict such events.
We need to collaborate with civil authorities, urban planners, the
insurance industry, etc., to help minimise the effects of such events.
We need to reduce the vulnerability of cities and build resilience
to natural hazards, given the enormous risk posed by the
infrastructure and unsustainable development.
Multi-decadal variations
31-Year running means
4
1
Monsoon Rainfall
AMO
3
0.8
Nino 3.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
1
0
0
-0.2
-1
-0.4
-0.6
-2
-0.8
-3
-1
-4
Year (ending)
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
1950
1946
1942
1938
1934
1930
1926
1922
1918
1914
1910
-1.2
1906
Monsoon Rainfall
2
Indian Region
USA East Coast
Russian Region
Europe Region