Transcript The Department of Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences: Structure

Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos
Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales
Universidad de Buenos Aires
The Department of Atmosphere and Oceans Sciences:
Structure and main research activities
Celeste Saulo - Director
UMI-IFAECI Kick Off Meeting
November 4 and 5, Buenos Aires, Argentina
History
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The DCAO has been created in 1958, within the Faculty of
Exact and Natural Sciences, University of Buenos Aires.
Graduate level in Atmospheric Sciences since 1953
Graduate level in Oceanography since 1993
Staff
17 Full-time professors (*)
 11 Part-time professors (*)
 11 Full-time professor assistants (*)
 17 Part-time professor assistants
(*) many are also CONICET research staff,
and work either at CIMA, DCAO or SHN
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DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Education: Degree and postgraduate levels
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Licencee in Atmospheric Sciences (6 years)
Licencee in Oceanography (6 years)
Bachelor in Atmospheric Sciences (3,5 years - with 4 orientations)
PhD in Atmospheric Sciences
PhD in Oceanography
Egresados 1955 - 2009
Lic. en Meteorologia - Cs. Atmósfera y Oceanografía
Egresados - Doctorado
70
20
60
1818
Lic. Atmosf.
Lic. Oceano.
50
40
PhDs
16
14
Atmospheric Sc.
12
Oceanography
3030
10
8
20
6
4
10
2
0
0
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
00-04
05-09
73-77
78-82
83-87
88-92
93-97
98-02
03-07
08-10
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
General research areas
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Weather Analysis and forecasting
Diagnostic and modeling studies of atmospheric and oceanic (*) climate
variability
Climate change and its impacts
Environmental Meteorology and Oceanography
Land-sea-air-criosphere interactions
Remote sensing applied to the oceans and the atmosphere
Study and modeling of the oceans and seas (*)
Scientific production,
according to number of
publications in journals
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Diagnostic and modeling studies of atmospheric
and oceanic climate variability and climate change
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Paleo and neo climate change over South- American from subtropical to high latitudes
Study of Droughts and Floods in southeastern South America
Precipitation and temperature climatology (constructed from long-term observational data) applied to:
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Long term fluctuations (interannual and decadal variability) and their relation with SST and low frequency
forcings
Temperature Extremes
Precipitation Extremes
Heat/cold waves
Validation of current climate derived from RCM and GCMs
Crop yields
Potential impacts of climate change
Regional climate modeling (*)
Characterization of The Rio de la Plata estuary climate and variability (*)
Characterization of the Western South Atlantic climate and variability
Paleo and neo climate change over SouthAmerican from subtropical to high latitudes
GENERAL OBJECTIVE:
to understand the forcing involved in
climatic changes and to investigate
climate and its variability for the
instrumental and pre instrumental
periods, over the southern cone of
South America, and teleconnections
with others regions
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METHODOLOGY:
The analysis of instrumental and proxy data
The output of re-analysis models of atmospheric circulation and climatic and paleoclimatic models
Experiments and simulations using paleoclimate GCMs and energy balance models
Solar system 3D models
Time series and climatic variable fields analyzed by statistic methodologies in time series analysis and
multivariate methods
LOTRED-SA “Coordinating Committee” : Long-Term climate REconstruction and Dynamics of
(southern) South America: A collaborative, high-resolution multi-proxy approach (within IGBP-PAGES)
Rosa Compagnucci and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Study of Droughts and Floods in
southeastern South America
Applied Climatology Group, Vargas and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Detection of intraseasonal signal
for maximum and minimum
temperature
PC 1 for the maximum (a) and minimum (b) temperatures for the reference stations.
Relationship between surface air
temperature and MJO
Average fields of maximum winter (JJA)
temperature anomalies with amplitude greater than
the upper tercile for MJO phases.
Applied Climatology Group, Vargas and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Precipitation and temperature climatology and its
relationship with crop yields in main producer
regions around the world.
Applied Climatology Group, Vargas and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Blocking events at 70ºW and its relationship with precipitation and
temperature anomalies
Winter
Spring
Relationship with precipitation (r>1= above normal precip)
T anomalies
Antarctica plays an important role in the global climate, especially in the heat and water balance.
Some links with the austral Southern South America’s temperatures are analyzed taking into
account spatial homogeneity of the records in different seasons
Temporal variability analysis
Monthly temperature series of Southern South America and
Antarctic Peninsula analyzed
Region
South
America
Stations
Antartic
Stations
Station
Punta Arenas
Com. Rivadavia
Trelew
Bahia Blanca
Faraday
Bellinghausen
Esperanza
Orcadas
WMO Cod
85934
87860
87828
87750
89063
89050
88963
88968
Latitude
-53
-45,78
-43,2
-38,7
-65,25
-62,2
-63,4
-60,75
Longitude
-70,85
-67,5
-65,27
-62,2
-64,27
-58,93
-56,98
-44,72
Cluster analysis results
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When summer, autumn and winter series were analyzed,
the Antarctic stations and the South America stations (specially
the stations at the Atlantic coast) were cleared separated as a
first step.
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On the other hand, when spring series were analyzed, the
South American stations along the Atlantic coast
remained in the same group with the Antarctic ones.
When a third grouping was allowed in the analysis, the same
situation was observed
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Temporal characteristics of the mentioned series and
SAM index were analyzed too, considering different
variability modes ( wavelets analysis)
a
b
Local wavelet power spectrum for (a) Esperanza (b) Trelex Contour levels
are chosen so that wavelet power is above the 25th percentile (blue), 50th p
(green), 75th pe (light green), and 95th p (red). Black contour is the 10%
significance level, using a white-noise background spectrum. The crosshatched region indicates the ‘‘cone of influence’’,
The cluster analysis shows a possibly strong influence of a spring circulation pattern that links Antarctica and eastern Southern
South America
Different variability modes were analyzed with wavelets. The results are congruent with previous work that analyzed temperature
indices of Southern South America and found significant relationship with SAM index, with a common 8-year signal in spring
Some changes can be observed in the frequency behaviour during the 1990s that must be analyzed
Changes in Climate at High Southern Latitudes: A Unique Daily Record at Orcadas
Spanning 1903-2008
4
2
0
E ne
F eb
Mar
A br
May
J un
J ul
A go
S ep
Oct
Nov
Dic
T (°C )
-2
-4
-6
-8
1903-1922
-10
1923-1942
1943-1962
-12
1963-1982
1983-2002
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Fig. Mean annual cycle of temperatures at Orcadas over 20-yr intervals
beginning in 1903. A 10-day smoothing has been applied.
The length of the season over which
atmospheric temperatures exceed 0°C
has substantially increased.
 Variability is greater relative to the
trends in colder seasons, but the period
since 1982 appears to be warmest
throughout nearly the entire year,
including the late fall and winter season
of April-August
Summer season
Shape of the distribution is nearly
constant
 Mean temperatures have
systematically shifted in recent decades
Fig. Distribution of frequencies of observations of daily temperatures during
the summer season (Dec-Jan-Feb) for each 20 year period since 1903. One
degree bins have been used as shown.
Matilde Rusticucci and collaborators
Comparison of observed daily extreme temperature events in
Southeastern South America and RCM simulations
Maximum Temperature
Percentile 95th
January
Differences
RCM-OBS
Minimum Temperature
Percentile 5th
July
Period 1992-2000
Differences
RCM-OBS
Matilde Rusticucci and collaborators
TEMPORAL VARIABILITY
Tucumán
November
WET CONDITION
Monthly accumulated extreme
rainfall greater than 75th daily
percentile .
December
Salta
DRY CONDITION
Annual Amount of Dry days Index
Penalba and collaborators
Covariability between daily intensity of extreme rainfall
(DIER) and Sea Surface Temperature
Second mode 17%
(Singular Value Descomposition)
Austral Spring
SON
DIER correlation of the second mode
-30
-40
-50
Penalba and collaborators
SVD2 17%
-70
-60
0.35 to 1
0.26 to 0.35
0.2 to 0.26
0.01 to 0.2
-0.01 to 0.01
-0.2 to -0.01
-0.26 to -0.2
-0.35 to -0.26
-1 to -0.35
Weather Type Classification
1000 hPa Z anomalies
WT1, WT2 and WT4
have the highest contribution (significant) to dry days in the core region
15.4%
WT1
15.9%
16.4%
WT5
Penalba and collaborators
WT2
11.3%
13.9%
WT3
WT6
16.2%
10.9%
WT7
WT4
Meso and large scale circulation in the SWA Ocean
Results
Ocean circulation over the
Zapiola Rise (45W,45S) shows
large interannual variability
(Saraceno et al, DSR 2009)
Work in progress
Contribution of mesoscale eddies
to the Meridional Overturning
Circulation in the Brazil-Malvinas
Confluence region
Figure 1: Colors indicate the bathymetry in the Argentinean Basin between 4500m and 6000m depth. Thin black lines indicate
f/H isocontours (units –1x10-8 m-1s-1). The closed contours range from –2.1 x10-8m-1s-1 to –1.92x10-8m-1s-1. The mean positions
[Saraceno et al., 2004] of the Subtropical Front (STF) and the Subantarctic Front (SAF) are indicated by solid black and solid
red lines, respectively. The positions of these two fronts correspond, also respectively, to the southern limit of the South
Atlantic Current and to the northern limit of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Vector speeds estimated from the trajectories
of profilers pf3900111 (red arrows) and pf3900110 (black arrows) are indicated. The profiler starting points are indicated by
solid dots. The vector scale (bottom-left corner) is common to both profilers.
Saraceno and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Climate Change impacts
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To evaluate some aspects of the vulnerability that climate
change causes in a rural system (Iberá wetlands) and in a
human system (Metropolitan area of Buenos Aires city)
analyzing the atmospheric physical processes involved and
preparing future climate scenarios based on the information
provided by the global climate models (GCMs) which best
represent regional climate.
 To analyze interaction processes between social and climate
dynamics in semi-wet and arid regions in Chaco Plains
 So study the relationship between observed climate change
(according to precipitation changes) and social vulnerability,
adaptation of population, socio-economic structure in
different time and spatial scales.
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
The hydrologic regime of the Iberá wetlands and the
potential impacts of Climate Change
The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model is used to
simulate the streamflow annual cycle of the Corriente River at the outlet
of the Iberá wetlands. Regional temperature and precipitation changes
are derived from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM for three different
emissions scenarios and time slices during the 21st century.
Monthly mean simulated (dashed lines) and
observed (solid lines) streamflows at (a) Los Laureles
for the 1990-1999 decade (m3/s).
Annual changes in temperature (°C) , precipitation (%) and
streamflow (%) for the Iberá wetlands relative to 1990-1999 period
temperature
rainfall
streamflow
Almost all scenarios agree
in showing an increment
in runoff. Results also
indicate that precipitation
rather than temperature
has the major effect in
runoff changes.
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Temporal variability of the Buenos Aires urban heat
island (UHI)
This study explores the statistical characteristics and temporal variability of the
UHI intensity in Buenos Aires using 32-year surface meteorological data with 1-h
time intervals.
The interannual variability and the seasonal variation of the UHI for the main
synoptic hours are studied for a longer record of 48 years associated to changes
in meteorological factors as wind speed and cloud amount.
Hourly variations of UHI (°C)
Mean (squares) and standard deviations (bars)
Hourly frequency distribution of “inverse”
(UHI<0°C) and extreme (UHI>4°C) heat
islands
4
50
UHI > 4 °C
UHI < 0 °C
3
40
Frequency (%)
UHI intensity (°C)
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1
30
20
0
0
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9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
10
-1
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Local Time (LT)
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9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Local Time (LT)
The intensity of the UHI depends on many factors and exhibits large variability with the time of day. It is a
predominantly nocturnal phenomeon. Negative values, i.e. “inverse heat islands” can be seen at all hours although they
occur much more often during the afternoon.
Inés Camilloni and collaborators
Temporal variability of the annual
mean UHI for the main synoptic hours
Decadal variability of the daily cycle of the UHI
3
2.5
2.0
UHI intensity(°C)
1.5
1.0
1976-1985
1986-1995
1996-2005
0.5
1
0
1960
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
21 LT
-0.5
3 LT
9 LT
15 LT
-1
Local Time (LT)
Evolution of the Buenos Aires
Metropolitan area population
14
12
Population (106 inhabitants)
UHI intensity (°C)
2
10
8
Although Buenos Aires population had a
persistent increase since the beginning of the
20th century, the nocturnal UHI effect has
been decreasing since 1960. Both decadal and
interannual variability analyses show a
reduction of the nocturnal UHI.
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4
2
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1895
1914
1947
1960
1970
1980
1991
2000
2007*
Inés Camilloni and collaborators
Cloud cover data show a decline of near clearsky conditions during nighttime that is
accompanied by a negative trend in the calm
frequencies. Both changes are physically
consistent with the reduction in the UHI
intensity.
Weather analysis and forecasting (*)
Applications
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Analysis and modelling of dynamical processes associated with extratropical
cyclones
Short range weather forecasts: numerical experiments and sensitivity studies
using WRF and BRAMS models
Ensemble generation, data assimilation and probabilistic short range forecasts
Wind energy
Mesoscale convective systems
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Simulation
Tracking
Associated severe weather
Characterization of synoptic environment
Remote sensing techniques
Coastal Cyclones
Sea level pressure
Coastal cyclones affecting the
Atlantic coast of the southern
South America may produce
several damages, particularly
some of them that become
explosive during a certain phase
of the life cycle.
•¿Which is the characteristic 3D
thermal vertical structure of
these cyclones? ¿How is its
temporal evolution?
• ¿Does it exist a relation
between the cyclone depth of
the cyclones and diabatic
processes?
Campetella and collaborators
Generation of low level wind fields from an atmospheric
model to be used in planning of electricity dispatch
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To improve the knowledge of the “wind” resource in
Patagonia.
To develop a tool based on the WRF numerical model
for representing low-level wind with a confidence level
that is acceptable for the Wholesale Power Market
Operator.
To estimate amounts of wind energy available for the
electricity system based on wind forecasts at each site
according to equipment technology and other factors.
To propose a new regulation in order to allow power
paying to return the investment.
To evaluate the potential environmental impacts related
to wind energy technologies.
Bibiana Cerne and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Preliminary results
Wind velocity
3 to 5 March 2005 00UTC Wind direcction
Bibiana Cerne and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Environmental meteorology and
oceanography
Study of the synoptic patterns that produce
severe wind waves in the outer Río de la Plata
Río de la Plata estuary is an important waterway for
commercial and passenger transport for Argentina and
Uruguay.
Objective:
• to understand the development of severe waves in the
mouth of the river which affect navigation.
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Relationship among: synoptic situation, wind, gusts and maximum wave
height in the outer Río de la Plata
6.8 m
Above: wind speed (blue), gusts (green) in km h-1
and significant wave height (pink) in m.
Mean sea level pressure and 10m wind
for 24 August 2005
Below: direction of wind (blue) and waves (pink).
for 23-25 August 2005.
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Improvements of satellite altimetry data over
the Patagonian Shelf
RESULTS:
The main limitation to use satellite
altimetry data over the Patagonian shelf
is accuracy of tidal models (Saraceno et al,
CSR, 2010; Saraceno et al, JGR, 2008)
Work in progress
Further validation of along-track data
and implementation of a regional tide
model with data assimilation
Fig. 1. Position of the Tide Gauges (magenta dots) and of the crossovers (circles) considered for the comparison between tide models
and observed amplitudes and phases. Background: bathymetry (Smith and Sandwell,1997); diagonal lines correspond to the ascending and
descending paths of the T/P and J-1 and J-2 missions; the eastern border of the shelf is represented by the 300m isobath( black contour).
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Biometeorology
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Study of soil – vegetation – atmosphere
interactions at plant and canopy scales.
Study of atmospheric processes involved
in the dispersion, transport and deposition
of airborne pollen at different scales.
Biometeorology group, Gassmann and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Research fields
Aerobiology
Agricultural Meteorology
Enegy exchange
Cultivated surface – atmosphere
Monoculture and Intercropping
Atmospheric influence on
airborne pollen
concentration
Natural vegetation - atmosphere
Long range and local
scale airborne pollen
transport
Plant - atmosphere
Animal- atmosphere
Biometeorology group, Gassmann and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Air Quality
Objectives:
 Assess the air quality in Buenos Aires
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Source of urban air pollution
Receptor of regional pollution
Study the contribution of biomass burning to the regional
pollution in BA
Analyze the role of the South American Low Level Jet
(SALLJ) as transport mechanism
Methodology:
 Direct and indirect modeling and observations
Ulke and collaborators
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Direct modeling
CATT-BRAMS
AOT500nm
Composite for
2002 CJ1_BB
Ulke and collaborators
AOT 500 nm monthly means for the whole data and the
Chaco Jet 1 sub-sample in 2001- 2005
AERONET CEILAP – BA
Total
CJ1
Ulke and collaborators
2001-2005
Indirect modeling
Trajectory analysis
HYSPLIT
Winter 2006, surface
Ulke and collaborators
Cluster Analysis
National collaborations
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Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
Servicio de Hidrografía Naval
Instituto Nacional del Agua (INA)
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA)
Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias
Ambientales (IANIGLA)
Other Faculties inside UBA and many other Universities
in Argentina
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
International Collaboration
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IRD, IPSL and LMD, France
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
CPTEC, Brazil
UNAM, Mexico
University of Geneva (UNIGE), Switzerland
University of KwaZulu-Natal
University of Maryland, USA
Oregon State University, USA
CIRES-NOAA, USA
COAS, USA
University of Utah, USA
University of Alabama, USA
University of Castilla La Mancha, Spain
DCAO-FCEN-UBA
Visit us at:
www.at.fcen.uba.ar
Thank you very much!