Transcript Slide 1

Climate change, Agrobiodiversity
and livelihoods in Indian Himalaya
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Himalaya: biodiversity hotspot and global
environmental significance
Climate change: scientific and farmers’
worldviews
Strengths, weaknesses and scope of
building on indigenous agricultural
systems
Agricultural systems: the diversity
Policy changes over time
• 1894 – Forest Policy: serve the agricultural interests more
directly than at present
• 1952: The solution to food problem primarily by intensive
cultivation and not by weakening the very basis of national
existence by encroaching upon forests
• 1988: Discourage diversion of productive agricultural lands
to forestry in view of the need for increased food production
• 1992: National Policy Statement on Environment and
Development
• 2003-2006: Biodiversity conservation and climate change:
Biodiversity Action Plan, Biodiversity Act, National
Communication to UNFCC
• 2008- Tribal (Forest Rights) Bill, Biodiversity Management at
Village Level, Decentralization of Authority, Climate change
action plan
Climate change trends: scientific
worldview
• Global warming : 1.0 to 7.5 deg C
• India: 0.4 to 2 deg C per 100 years; increase in max
temp
• Contrasting trends from different models in Greater
Trans Himalaya
• Warming based on models and long term climate data
analysis – no warming from dendrochronology
• -6-8% in rainfall in north-east and +10-12% in west
• +2 deg C and +7% precipitation: the ‘best guess’
• Sporadic extreme events ???
Uncertainty/low precison of predictions/complexity of
climate change; urgent global corrective strategies and
policies
Climate change trends: farmers’
worldview
• Feel warming but fail to quantify rates: decline in area
and duration of snow
• Good climate: low rainfall in March-May, peak monsoon
in July-August, moderate rainfall/heavy snowfall in
December-January, absence of cloud bursts, with
uncertainty/unpredictability of the date of onset of
monsoon and high rainfall events, drought/flood years –
changes in the trend
• High elevation villages more prone to abnormally high
precipitation, mid elevation villages to low precipitation
and foot hill villages to both types of events
• Bad climate in both cropping seasons in a year very rare
Living with uncertainty: autonomous rather planned
adaptations
Associated (natural ecosystems)
and planned biodiversity (crops)
• Protection of agricultural land and
dwellings from run-off and wildlife
• Recharge of springs (drinking water) and
streams (irrigation water)
• Availability of livestock feed and FYM
• Availability of NTFPs crucial for livelihood
• Cultural values
Rainfall (mm)
2007 (Flood Year 1620 mm) 2008 (Drought Year 920 mm)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007
2008
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Spatio-temporal variation in climate
• North-eastern India: 2007 flood year and
2008 drought year
• Central Himalaya: 2007 - low rainfall in
monsoon crop season and high rainfall in
winter season; 2008 – high rainfall in
monsoon crop season and low rainfall in
winter crop seaon
0
MAN 08F
MAN 07F
KHU 08F
KHU 07F
TOL 08F
TOL 07F
SAN 08F
SAN 07F
LEI 08F
LEI 07F
DRU 08F
DRU 07F
KDC 08F
KDC 07F
NOR 08F
NOR 07F
Grain biomass (g/m2)
600
500
400
300
200
100
SOC: higher in drought year: 4 % in KDC, 10-15% in NOR, LEI, SAN, TOL, MAN, 1618% in DRU, KHU
2500
Stems
Leaves
Fruits
2000
1500
1000
500
C.caj V.mun
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
0
2007
Biomass (g/m2)
Roots
V. G.max G.sp V.ung M.uni E.cor
ang
Crop diversity by stress tolerance
and economic value
Economic value Stress
tolerance
Maize,
High
soybean,
wheat, common
cash crops
Fingermillet,
Low
Barnyard millet,
Barley
Horsegram and High
Sesame
Low
High
High
Managing the risks: village landscape scale
Uncertainty of
rainfall
Cultivating distant
fields
Homegarden
Negligible
Negligible
Rainfed crop
system
High
High
Rainfed
agroforestry
system
High
Low
Irrigated crop
system
Low
High
Shifting agriculture Low
Low
Farmers’ observations about
global warming induced changes
• Feasibility of potato and cauliflower cultivation in higher
elevations
• Emergence of defoliators of Amaranths in higher
elevations
• Early flowering and maturity of winter crops
• Decline in apple/other temperate fruit yields
• Early flowering of Rhododendron arboreum
• Early fruit ripening in Prunus cerasoides
• Increase in dominance of Bauhinia vahlii twining around
Pinus roxburghii
• Wild species not as much sensitive to climatic variability
as domesticated species
Changes in agrobiodiversity and management practices:
socio-economic driving factors and implications
FYM/Fodder
1100 –1850 m
1850-2400m
Manure input
Fodder yield
Monetary return
1963
15.0
5.0
21.3
1963
18.3
3.3
27.9
1993
16.5
4.3
34.2
2400-2600m
1993
1963 1993
27.4 16.8
32.4
2.1
1.5
0.2
52.5 36.8
77.3
Soil loss and run-off (n = 5 plots) from rainy season crops grown in Pranmati
watershed, central Himalaya, India.
Crop
Soil loss
(kg ha-1)
Run-off
(m3 ha-1)
Amaranth
Barnyard millet
Fingermillet
Paddy
Potato
4250
2872
2300
3279
18080
798
324
301
491
1371
Least significant difference
(P = 0.05)
2320
261
Homegardens are richer in SOC (+) compared to forests
20-50 cm
50-100 cm
Mean
0-10 cm
10-20 cm
20-50 cm
50-100 cm
Mean
Total Kjaldhal N (%)
0.35
2.8
2.4
2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
RA
0.0012
Available P (%)
10-20 cm
HG
0-10 cm
10-20 cm
PF
20-50 cm
50-100 cm
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
OF
RA
Mean
0.001
0.0012
Available P (%)
Soil organic carbon (%)
0-10 cm
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0
0-10 cm
HG
10-20 cm
PF
20-50 cm
OF
50-100 cm
Mean
0.001
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0
RA
HG
PF
OF
RA
HG
PF
Basal area of well management agroforestry systems comparable to forests
OF
1600
1400
Grain yield (kg ha-1)
1200
Wheat
Mustard
Lentil
1000
800
600
400
200
0%
10
%
75
%
50
%
25
U
nl
o
pp
e
d
0
Lopping regime
Yield of winter season crops grown under unlopped and 25%, 50%, 75%
and 100% lopping of agroforestry trees in village Banswara, India. LSD
(P=0.05) between means of a crop grown under different lopping regimes are
given as vertical lines.
Important characteristics (mean  standard deviation, n = 5) of
oak-based and pine-based organic manure.
Characteristic
Moisture (%)
Carbon (%)
Nitrogen (%)
Cellulose (%)
Lignin (%)
Polyphenol (%)
C/N
Lignin / N
Polyphenol +
Lignin/Nirtogen
Manure type
Oak
226.21 19.21
24.66  0.58
1.40  0.03
12.33  0.57
14.01  1.05
0.32  0.04
17.68  1.25
10.04  0.71
10.26  0.72
Pine
303.50 20.50
33.33  0.58
1.16  0.03
17.00  2.64
17.33  0.29
0.37  0.03
28.73  0.48
14.94  0.25
15.26  0.25
Carbon sequestration rate (t ha-1 yr-1) in soil and
vegetation after rehabilitation in a low altitude village
(Banswara, Chamoli) and a high altitude village
(Khaljhuni, Almora ) villages in Indian Central
Himalaya.
Characteristics
Soil (0-15 cm)
Tree bole/bamboo
culm
Total
Carbon sequestration
Banswara
Khaljhuni
2.2
0.9
3.4
4.3
3.1
7.7
A high degree of variability – by season, within and between site
– differences in belowground community not as marked as in the
aboveground community
Pre-monsoon
Post-monsoon
Monsoon
Annual average
4
3.5
3
3
2.5
HG
RA
1
PF
0
-4
-2
-1
OF
0
2
4
DCA axis 2
DCA axis 2
2
2
1.5
HG
1
RA
0.5
PF
0
-2
-1
-0.5 0
OF
1
-1
-1.5
-2
DCA axis 1
-2
DCA axis 1
2
3
4
New crops – Medicinal Species
• Growth of Aconitum spp not limited by low CO2low temperature conditions
• Warming stimulated growth of Allium stracheyi,
Arnebia benthamii and Dactylorrhiza hatagirea
and depressed growth of Angelica glauca and
Rheum emodi, the coexisting alpine species
• Upward movements of vegetation belts:
temperature pull, earth surface processes,
edaphic controls and species attributes
Socio-cultural capital favoring sustainability
• Community pressure for proper management of
agricultural land with local labour, village level food selfsufficiency and exchange of seeds without any monetary
consideration
• Catastrophes if livelihood based on timber trade
• Income from non-timber forest products permissible only
to weaker sections but subsistence uses to all
• Limits to forest resource utilization and access to groups
of families and not individuals
• Sacred forests around hill tops and streams
• Accommodating people suffering from natural hazards
and disasters
Identify changes and trace their
driving factors (climate change)
Cutting isolated
trees
Wet paddy
cultivation in
valley/flatland
Dense Natural
forest
(6)
Open forests
(7)
(8) (1)
Shifting
cultivation longer
cycles >10years
Toko/orange/bam
boo/timber
plantation.
Conversion of
fallows to
plantation
(2) (3) (7)
Shifting
cultivation
shorter cycle
7-8 years
(4)
(5)
Wet paddy
cultivation on
terrace slopes
Reduction in
area under
shifting
agriculture
(1) Large scale outmigration in highly inaccessible location.
(2) New apportunities of income due to improved accessibility.
(3) Socio-cultural change from subsistence to market economy
(4) Population pressure /land scarcity.
(5) Incentive for settled agriculture.
(6) Large scale cutting due to road construction/other development activities.
(7) Improvement to accessibility.
(8) Weak enforcement of policy.
Replaceme
nt of
millets by
paddy
For sustainability through
cooperation and collaboration
• Consistent and unambiguous definitions
for effective communication, comparisons
and synthesis
• Unifying, standard and globally agreed
methodology
• Critical and threshold values
Capacity building
Policy
Knowledge
Behaviour