Transcript IMPACTs OF CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTs OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Senstivity of growth in
Scots pine (left) and
Norway spruce (right)
in different parts of
the Baltic Sea basin
compiled from the
findings of SilviStrat
project (Lindner et al.
2005).
Rovaniemi - the
northern boreal forest
Kuopio- southern boreal
forests
Chorin and Grillenburg
temperate forests in
northern Germany.
Impact of climate change on:
 Health
 Food production
 Water availability
 Energy sector
McMichael i in., The Lancet, 2006, 367:859-869.
HEALTH
Climate change is likely to affect human health
through:
 Increased risk of heatwave-related health impacts
 Continued cold related health effects, in particular where
access to energy is scarce
 Increased flood related impacts
 Increased malnutrition in areas already affected
 Changes in food-borne disease patterns
 Changes in distriution of infectious diseases
 Increased in waterborne diseases, in particular where
water, sanitation and hygiene standards are low
 Increases in frequency of respiratory disease from
atmospheric pollution and allergenic pollen
McMichael i in., The Lancet, 2006, 367:859-869
Winds, storms and floods:
 Direct health effects: drownings, injuries,
diarrhoeal diseases, vector-borne diseases
(rodents), respiratory infections, skin and eye
infections, mental health problems
 Indirect health effects: damage to
infrastructure for health care and water and
sanitation , crops and property, disruption of
livelihood and housing
Diarrhoea diseases from food and waterborne
infections:
• Poor water availability
• Intense rainfall or drought as a stimulating
factors of waterborne disease outbreaks
• Effects of temperature and run-off on
microbial and chemical contamination of
coastal, recreational and surface waters
• Direct effect of temperature on the incidence
of diarrhoeal diseases
Vector-borne diseases
Effect of climate change on the live of vectors:
insects (mosquitos, ticks, sandflies) and
rodents
• Mosquito-borne diseases: malaria, dengue,
West Nile Virus
• Tick-borne diseases: encephalitis, borreliosis
• Sandfly-borne diseases: leismaniasis
Respiratory diseases:
Air pollution
Pollen allergies (new species,
changes of vegetation period)
Forest & Kim Starr
Adaptation measures to reduce heat-related illnesses and
deaths
Action plans:
• Accurate, timely weather related heat alerts
• Strategies to reduce individual and community exposure to heat
• Plans for provision of health care, social services and infrastructure
• Heat-related health information strategies
• Real-time surveillance, evaluation and monitoring
Health services:
• Health facility infrastructure: shading, cooling, drinking water, adapted
menus
• Appropriate staff schedullingand working arrangements
• Special care for pacients and residents: identification of rosk,
adjustment of drugs and treatment, organization of home care
• Staff training in identification and treatment of heat-related health
problems
McMichael i in., The Lancet, 2006, 367:859-869
Impact of
climate on
food
production
Increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration:
Direct effect:
• Increase of yield of plants having the so-called C3photosynthesis pathway (20-40%)
• Smaller increase of yield of plants having the so-called
C4-photosynthesis pathway (maize, sorgum, sugar-cane,
milleth)
• Reduced transpiration (with higher CO2 concentration,
the amount of opennes of stomata – pores on the leaf
allowing for gas exchange – is reduced for both C3 and
C4 plants.
• Change in a quality of biomass – more sugar
Indirect effect:
• Change in the attraction of plants for pests
• Benefit for weeds
Increase of temperature:
Direct effect:
• Longer vegetation period (effect stronger in cooler
regions)
• Faster plant development (in wheat, an increase of 1°C
during grain filling reduces the length of this phase by
5% declining yield in the same amount)
Indirect effect:
• Benefit for pests
• Benefit for weeds
What determines crop production in Europe?
 Duration of growing season
 Late spring and early autumn frosts
 Solar radiation availability
 Water availability
 Heat stress
 Duration of grain-filling period
Arable crops:
• Expansion of the area of cereal cultivation northwards
• For wheat the small reduction of yield caused by
temperature rise can be more than counterbalanced by
the effect of increased CO2 on crop photosynthesis.
Lower yield in dry regions. Increase of yield variability .
• Potatoes (and other root and tuber crops) may have
notable resopone to a rising CO2 concentration. However
for some crops warming may reduce growing season and
icrease of water requirements may be crusial for yields.
• Climate related increases are only expected in northern
Europe
• Largest reductions are expected around Mediterranean
and in the south of European Russia
• Different impacts of spring-sown crops and autumn sown
crops
Perennial crops:
• Many fruit trees are susceptible to spring frosts during
flowering
• Decrease of risk of damage to fruit trees by autumn
frosts.
• The climate suitability for many of bioenergy crops is
projected to increase in Europe.
Grasslands:
• The response will differ
• Generally positive response from intensively managed
and nutrientrich grasslans (if water is available)
• Increasing frequency of summer droughts may be crussial
• Livestock - greater water consumption,
heat stress, insects
• Weeds, pests and diseases
• Invasive species
• Soils - faster decomposition where soil
moisture allows, reduction in soil organic
matter stock
Water security
• Changes in precipitation
• Changes in evaporation
• Changes in transpiration
• Changes in river run-off
• Changes in water quality
• Changes in snow cover
Run-off changes
• Total amount
• Annual cycle
• Snow and glaciers melting in spring
Floods and droughts frequency
Protecting against floods
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Technical flood protection: dikes, dams,…
Natural retention of flood water: floodways
Restriction of settlement in risk areas
Standards for building development
Forecasting
Insurance
Coping with drought and low flow periods
• Technical drought protection: reservoirs,
tanks,…
• Efficiency of water use
• Restriction of water use
• Landscape planning measures to improve
water balance
• Forecasting
• Insurance
Irrigation water demand
Changing potential of hydroelectricity
Thermal power plant