Transcript The Changing Debate on Climate

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The
Changing
Debate
on
Second level
Climate
Third level
Fourth level Eric J. Barron
Fifth
level Center for Atmospheric
National
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Research
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Every credible scientist recognizes that
increases in greenhouse gases promotes
Click to editwarming
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• •“Greenhouse
Gases”text
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wavelengthClick to edit Master
selective absorbers
• Second level
• Third level
• Without selective absorbers Earth is 5 F
• Fourth level
Fifthselective
level
• •With
absorbers Earth is 64 F
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The Real Issues in the Debate
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• How much will it warm – in response to humans adding
greenhouse gases?
•more
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• How fast will it warm?
Second
level
• •How
significant
will be the impact?
• Third level
The first two questions will likely remain uncertain for
decades.
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So, for decision-makers the last question is key.
It is not just a science question.
It depends on what you value and your sense of risk.
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Explain that – my debate with an
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economist
• Suppose I got contract to cut down all of
•the
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trees
for lumber
your city.
•Good
Second
level
or bad?
• Third level
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• Fifth level
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Explain that – my debate with an
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economist
• Suppose I got contract to cut down all of
•the
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trees
for lumber
your city.
•Good
Second
level
or bad?
Third level
• •GOOD
– a product - brings in dollars; jobs
brings in
dollars
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level
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Explain that – my debate with an
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economist
• Suppose I got contract to cut down all of
•the
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trees
for lumber
your city.
•Good
Second
level
or bad?
Third level
• •GOOD
– a product, brings in dollars; jobs,
dollars
•brings
Fourthinlevel
• •WAIT
what about beauty, habitat,
Fifth –
level
ecosystem services (water)?
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Explain that – my debate with an
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economist
• Suppose I got contract to cut down all of
•the
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trees
for lumber
your city.
or bad?
•Good
Second
level
• •GOOD
– a product, brings in dollars; jobs,
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brings in dollars
• Fourth level
• WAIT – what about beauty ,habitat,
•ecosystem
Fifth level services (clean water)?
• In one generation they won’t know what
they have missed – no value
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The Changing Debate
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• What do scientists really know about
•global
Click warming?
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Second
• •What
are level
the predictions for the future?
Third are
level
• • What
the potential impacts and
•vulnerabilities?
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• Fifth level
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What do Climate Experts
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Really
Know
about
Global
Third level
Fourth level Warming?
FifthAnd,
levelstep back 15 years ago to
examine the predictions
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ClickFoundations
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(1995)
• Carbon Dioxide is a Selective Absorber
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textIncreasing
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• •Greenhouse
(oil,
deforestation)
•coal,
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level
• •Increased
Greenhouse Gases Promote
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Warming
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• Draw down will take Centuries
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• Aerosols have Human Sources
• Many Aerosols Promote Cooling
• The Planet has warmed 1° F in Century
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Global Temperatures
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Cooling? Finally?
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Temperature Trends
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1995:
Confidence
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Third level Predictions
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in
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Predictions: Virtually Certain
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• 1995:
will title
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• Second level
Stratospheric
tropical
temperature
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Third
level
trends
(observations
• Fourth level
in blue)
From Bill
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Randel
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Predictions: Very Probable
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• 1995: Surface Temperature will Increase in
response to increased levels of greenhouse
•gases
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– -- .5 to 2.0 C by 2050
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level
-- 1.5 to 4.5
C for end of century
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-- 2.5 Clevel
most likely
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Predictions to 2100 (IPCC)
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Predictions: Very Probable
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• 1995: Global Precipitation Will Increase
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Spatial Changes in Precipitation
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Column Water Vapor
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Predictions: Very Probable
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• 1995: Sea Ice will Retreat in N.H.
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Compared to 1979-2007 mean; Richter-Menge et al.
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Rate of Decline Greater than
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Predictions
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Boe et al.
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Predictions: Very Probable
• 1995:
N.H.
Latitude
Warming
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IPCC
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Snow Cover (IPCC)
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Predictions
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• 1995: Sea Level will Rise
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5-40 cm level
by 2050
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Sea Level (IPCC)
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Tide Gauges
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Based on A1B
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Predictions
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• 1995: Solar Variability will Not be Significant
•Over
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textCompared
styles
50 years
to CO2
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Global Climate Change
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Impacts in the U.S. 2009
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ClickPredictions
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- Uncertain
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• Climate Variability Changes
• Second level
• Regional Climate Changes
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• Tropical Storms
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• The Next 25 Years
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• Biosphere Feedbacks
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ENSO CHARACTERISTICS
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OBSERVATIONS
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1o CCSM4
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Hurricane simulated in NCAR Nested Regional Model
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What do Climate Models Predict?
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U.S. Centric 2090-2100 – only to
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levelus to think about impacts
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and risk
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Community Climate System
(CCSM)
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Advancing Earth-system science
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Regional Comparisons (IPCC)
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Temperatures Compared to
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Prediction
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US Temperature Predictions 1995
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Global Climate
Change Impacts in
the United States,
2009
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Global Climate
Change Impacts
In the United
States, 2009
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What are the Potential Impacts
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for Ecosystems, Water,
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Agriculture and Health?
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Many interesting areas:
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Consider only Ecosystems
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Global Climate
Change Impacts in
The United States,
2009
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The Changing Debate
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• What do scientists really know about
•global
Click warming?
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Second
• •What
are level
the predictions for the future?
Third are
level
• • What
the potential impacts and
•vulnerabilities?
Fourth level
• Fifth level
List of Nominations
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