Transcript PhD Presentation Esther Magambo

phD proposal by:
Magambo EK
2010
BACKGROUND
INFORMATION/INTRODUCTION
 Water is the key medium that links atmospheric
temperature rises to changes in human and
physical systems
 The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change
as “a change in climate which is attributed directly
or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which
is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods”; this is by
UNFCCC (2002), Geneva.
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BACKGROUND cont’d
 Climate change will alter the hydrological cycle in
many ways.
 The trigger is the warming of the atmosphere and
oceans, which will change major weather systems.
 This will alter the temporal and spatial partners of
rainfall with consequences for runoff, surface and
groundwater storage, river flow regimes and it is
estimated greater likehood of extremes, droughts and
floods, in different parts of the world.
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BACKGROUND cont’d
 These changes, will affect major human livelihood
systems, particularly those dependent on direct access
to natural resources or assets.
 Rain fed agriculture, human settlement pattern and
movement, water supplies, sanitation and irrigation
will all be affected leading to changes in human
health, wealth and security.
 On the demand side, increase in population,
urbanization and changes in income levels, will
change their demand for water resources , both
spatially and temporally.
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General Effects of Climate
Change
 Water- intensification of hydrological cycle and
related impacts
 Agriculture- Effects on yields due to changes in
seasonality and pests and diseases
 Ecosystems- shifting of ecosystems due to changes in
environmental conditions
 Health- increase in health problems due to vector and
water borne diseases, and heat waves
 Coastlines- rise in sea level leading to displacements
and effects on quality and quantity of ground water
due to contamination with salt water
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Governance Structures
Water governance can be defined as the range of
political, social, economic and administrative systems
that are in place to regulate the development and
management of water resources and provision of water
services at different levels of society. The types
governace include: Public water provision- Government, or cooperatives
and user associations
 Public- private partnership
 Private governance
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Statement of the Problem
 IPCC technical paper on climate change and water
states that Water resources issues have not been
adequately addressed in climate change analysis and
climate policy formulations.
 Likewise, in most cases climate change problems have
not been dealt with in water resource analysis,
management and policy formulation.
 This suggests a gap in the analysis required to
understand the full effects of climate change on
human and natural systems and moreover, how policy
makers can and should improve future responses to
climate change at country, regional and international
levels, including community level.
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Statement of the Problem
cont’d
 This is because without sufficient knowledge at basin
level, policy makers and practitioners in the water
sector can make serious mistakes and generate
maladaption responses.
 It is from these critical issues on impacts of climate
change in relation to water, and water governance that
the researcher seeks to investigate the responses from
the stakeholders in the water sector.
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Objectives of the Study
The four broader objectives are:
 To investigate what mechanisms are in place to
respond to impacts of climate change on water.
 To establish to what extent various forms of water
governance are applied in water management in
Kenya.
 To investigate the challenges of water governance in
the public sector.
 To investigate whether public sector water governance
stakeholders are ready to combat challenges of climate
change on water availability.
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SPECIFIC PRIMARY RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
 What changes in climate are expected by 2030 in
Kenya?
 What impacts could climate change have on water
availability and water services sector?
 How might water availability be impacted by these
changes?
 How might water supply be impacted by these
changes?
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QUESTIONS cont’d
 Is the future supply: demand ratio sustainable with
climate change?
 How would these characteristics be managed/
mitigated to become sustainable?
 Examine plan of action to combat climate change in
water sector?
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RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
 H0: Climate change does not impact on water
services.
 H1: Alternative
 Ho: Climate change has no impact on water
governance.
 H1: Alternative
 Ho: water governance has no impact on water services
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LITERATURE REVIEW
 Research on the effects of climate change on water
supply and water demand has not been balanced.
While the supply (river flow, rainfall-runoffs, evapotranspiration-recharge and hydrology) has received
considerable scrutiny, the demand side has been
neglected. Although water demand has been referred
to in climatic studies, empirical evidence is lacking,
little in depth, analytical work has been carried out
(IPCC, 1996, 1998 and 2001).
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Evidence of gaps in climate change
research

It is evident from IPCC 2001 survey and other studies
(Arnell (1998), Goluber (1993), Strzepec (1998) that
there have been a great number of studies on the
potential effects of climate change on hydrology.
 The reports further show that of those studies that
looked at hydrology, a majority focused on water
balance, specifically effects of climate change on
precipitation, runoff, and evaporation rates, recharge
and stream flow.
 The survey further reveals that a small number of
studies look at the impacts of those changes for water
resources and still fewer explicitly considered possible
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adaptation strategies.
Evidence of gaps in climate
change research cont’d
 To show the extent of bias in water resources and
climate change research, 305 articles surveyed by the
IPPC (2001) references on hydrology and water
resources, only 30 articles are demand related.
 On these 14 are on impacts of climate change, and
irrigation, 13 are on management in the face of climate
change and 3 are concerned with urban water use.
 None referred to rural water demand and supply for
domestic use. Out of 305 articles, 275 focused on
runoff, hydrology, evaporation, glaciers and stream
flow.
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Evidence of gaps in climate
change research cont’d
 IPCC review and other studies are mainly concerned
with projections of the extreme weather floods,
droughts, Elnino, Lanina phenomena and hydrology.
 Boland (1997), Doll (2002) and Kazmarek (1996) reach
the same observations, that there is substantial
amount of literature on analysis of possible impacts of
climate change on water supply, while impacts on
water demand (such as irrigation, urban water
demand, municipal) have been virtually ignored.
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Evidence of gaps in climate
change research cont’d
 It has been concluded that climate change will lead to
an increase in water demand. Thus having anticipated
the impacts of climate change on water demand, water
planners and managers especially those on the
demand side, are increasingly calling for integrating
climate change impacts into water demand
management (Dankor and Wolde, undated).
 From the few studies on water demand and climate
change/variability it can be concluded that climate
change has positive effect on water use at the urban
domestic level.
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LITERATURE REVIEW ON
WATER GOVERNANCE
 Water governance can be traced back more that 5000
years. However it was only in 1982 and 1997
respectively that global water agreements like UN
conventions on the sea and water courses were
adopted.
 Only recently has water become prominent on the
global political agenda, for example with Mar del Plata
Conference of 1997, the Dublin Conference on water
1992, the water chapter in agenda 21 adopted in 1992,
the four world water fora since 1997 and Millennium
Declaration of 2000.
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WATER GOVERNANCE cont’d
 Likewise, scientific work on water has only recently
been globalized - for example with the Global water
system project of the Earth system science partnering
and the UN-wide world water assessment programme.
 Growing political interest in water research and
governance raises the questions: what are the
appropriate levels at which research and policy on
water governance should be undertaken, and which
issues should be addressed at which levels.
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WATER GOVERNANCE cont’d
 Water is a major global public good. Global governance
theories that do not actively study the management of
global pubic goods, particularly in the environmental
area will miss the rapidly evolving key issues of the
twenty first century
 Important aspects of contemporary water governance
come in the form of international law.
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WATER GOVERNANCE IN
KENYA
 In response to the plan of action agreed on in 2002 and
in an effort to meet MDGs Government of Kenya
enacted Water Act,2002.
 This put in place various institutions for water
management as given in the chart below
 The study will focus on analysing how effective these
institutions are in meeting their mandate in the face os
climate change
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WATER GOVERNANCE IN KENYA cont’d
 Analyzing the water supply and sanitation services
governance in Kenyan sector, therefore must focus on
the current situation of service provision by looking at
actors al all levels, what policies and strategies are
governing their activities, the existing challenges and
gaps in water and sanitation service provision and
define interventions for ensuring better provision for
those who are currently un-served or inadequately
served.
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GRAPHICAL ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF WATER GOVERNACE
IN PUBLIC SECTOR IN KENYA
MWI
Ministry of Water and
Irrigation
Policy and strategy
formulation
legislation,
coordination and
evaluation
WASREB
Water Services
Regulatory Board
WSTF
Water Services
Trust Fund
WAB
Water Appeal
Board
Regulate and
monitor provision
Finance provision
or wss to poor
areas
Determine
appeals
NWCPC
National Water Cons.
and Pipeline corp.
Develop and manage
state schemes
WSBs
Water Services Boards WSS
Asset holders and developers
KEWI
Kenya Water
Institute
Training and
Research
NIB
National
Irrigation
Board
Develop, manage
national schemes
WRMA
Water Resource
Management Authority
Regulate manage
water resources
CAACs
Catchment Area Advisory Committees
Advice on conservation and appointment
WSBs LVEN, LVS, RV, ATHI, TANA
NORTHERN COAST
WRUAs - Water Resource User Association
Conservative management of water resources
WSPs- Water Services Providers
Direct provision of the services
Consumers/ Users:source;draft report on status of water sector reforms in Kenya,
2007
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
CLIMATE CHANGE
STAKEHOLDERS
WATER
RESOURCES
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS
WATER MANAGEMENT
INSTITUTIONS
WATER
GOVERNANCE
Means Impacts/Affects
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Explanation of Conceptual Framework
 Climate change impacts negatively on water resources
due to increased rates of evaporation and frequency of
extremes such as floods
 The effects on water quantity affects peoples
livelihoods due to reduced water for domestic,
industrial and irrigation use
 Reduced water quality affects peoples health through
water borne diseases
 Water governance affects water resources both in
quality and quantity and this consequently affects
peoples’ livelihoods
 Water management institutions determine the
governance structures and therefore affect water
resources
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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
 RESEARCH DESIGN
Our study will employ a descriptive survey design; it will
collect data from the population to determine, and
report the way things are
 POPULATION OF THE STUDY
Our study area will comprise the Athi catchment which
is one of the six basins into which WRMA has divided
the country for water management purposes.
All WRMA and WSREB institutions in Athi will form the
population of the study
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METHODOLOGY cont’d
 Athi catchment is comprised of six regions which are
named as follows: Kiambu, Nairobi, Kibwezi,
Loitokitok, Mombasa, Kwale.
SAMPLE AND SAMPLING METHOD
 Two of the regions in Athi will be selected to represent
Urban and Rural scenarios. These are Kiambu and
Nairobi regions. Items for the sample will be randomly
picked from the two regions such that 30% WRMA
and 30% of WSREB institutions are represented
 Stratified random sampling will be used to pick
elements for the sample
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METHODOLOGY cont’d
 VARIABLES OF THE SUTDY
The variables of the study will be impacts of climate change
on water resources, and water governance.
DATA COLLECTION
 The research instrument to be used will be
questionnaires, interviews recorded on well structured
questionnaires
 secondary data will be used to obtain factual information
held by the water actors in the Athi region about climate
change and water governance.
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METHODOLOGY cont’d
DATA ANALYSIS
 Data analysis will be conducted using descriptive
statistics. This will include measures of central
tendency (the mean), measures of spread (standard
deviation) and frequency tabulations.
 Trend analysis will also be used to establish the actions
of the actors on water governance in response to
climate change.
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BUDGET
ACTIVITY
COST (Kenya Shillings)
Proposal typing, editing and printing
50,000.00
Cover letter and questionnaire typing and printing
10,000.00
Following up on non-respondents
10,000.00
Travel expenses
40,000.00
Data entry and verification
20,000.00
Statistical analysis programmer
20,000.00
Typing work
15,000.00
Printing
15,000.00
Binding and hand over of final report
20,000.00
TOTAL
200,000.00
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WORKPLAN
Task
Time scales
Submit Synopsis and goal clarification
4weeks
Overall study design
2 weeks
Selecting the sample
1 week
Designing of questionnaire and cover letter
1 week
Revise questionnaire if necessary
2 weeks
Refine Proposal
1 week
Defend proposal
2 weeks
Revise proposal
2 weeks
Collect data
Attempts to get non-respondents
2 Months
1 month
Editing the data and coding open-ended questions
1 week
Data entry and verification
1 week
Analyzing the data
2Weeks
Preparing the report
2 Weeks
Report submission and presentation
1 week
Final corrections
1 week
Total
35 weeks
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