Transcript Mohammed Karrou - Arab Climate Resilience Initiative

ICARDA
Arab Climate Resilience Initiative
“ Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region:
Sea Level Rise, Coastal Erosion, and Human
Development”
Adaptation of Agriculture to
Climate change
Mohammed Karrou, ICARDA
Cairo, Arab republic of Egypt
20-21 September 2010
ICARDA
ICARDA
Plan of the presentation
 Challenges in Arab region due to Climate change (Agriculture)
 Adaptation options (Inland): ICARDA experience
 Adaptation options (Coastal areas): Some suggestions
ICARDA
Challenges
 Temperature rise globally in the range
of 2 to 6 °C by 2100 (IPCC);
 In dry areas, the absolute amount of
rain is expected to decrease (20% in
many countries of Arab countries);
 Extreme weather events will most
likely amplify;
 Periods of drought will become longer
and its severity will be higher
ICARDA
Challenges
2. Water resources
Renewable water resources in Arab countries
3000
 River flows and groundwater
recharge will be reduced
1500
1000
500
Country
Kuwait
UAE
Qatar
S. Arabia
Lybia
Jordan
Bahrain
Yemen
Algeria
Oman
Tunisia
Egypt
Morcco
Lebanon
Syria
0
Sudan
 Increased water quality
deterioration (salt intrusion
due to high water pumping &
sea level rise)
2000
Iraq
 A little new water is expected
to be available;
2025
m3/capita year
 Limited opportunities to
expand irrigated areas
2007
2500
Challenges
ICARDA
3. Population growth and arable land availability
Region
Total land
Million ha
Arable land %
Pop. 2004
Million
Pop. 2030
Million
Asia
770
11
1757
2168
N. Africa
678
4
155
222
S & N America
1475
7
185
237
CAC
419
8
75
90
E. Africa
451
8
107
178
Total
4315
8
2330
2942
ICARDA
How this Will Affect Agricultural Production ?
Inland
 Heat stress and reduction of the length of the
growing period of crops;
 CC is likely to alter the abundance, intensity,
frequency & types of many pests & increase
pathogen growth rates;
 Drought (at critical stages) and rainfall
variability (yield fluctuations);
 Irrigation water scarcity;
 Land and vegetation degradation (low
fertility, less organic matter, carbon emission).
ICARDA
How this Will Affect Agricultural Production ?
Coastal areas
 Land degradation due to sea level rise
(reduction of cropped area);
 Inundation of cropped areas (salinity,
water logging)
 Salt intrusion due to sea level rise (salt
stress, less available freshwater);
 Salt intrusion increase and water
scarcity due to excessive ground water
pumping (salt and water, drought
stress)
What Can Be done to Adapt to Climate Change?
ICARDA
 Advances in S & T;
 Strong TT systems;
 Enhancement of NARES human capacity;
 Enabling policy and political will;
 Integration of adaptation strategies into
development plans and policies.
ICARDA
Adaptation Options (Inland)
 Heat, drought and salt tolerant varieties or species and with
high water productivity;
 Adapted and modern irrigation systems and techniques that
increase water productivity;
 Early sowing;
 Conservation agriculture and water harvesting;
 Adapted farming systems and diversification;
 Appropriate policies and institutional set-ups.
ICARDA
Crop Improvement: Varieties Released using
ICARDA Germplasm Worldwide, 1977 to 2006
Developing
Industrialized
Countries
Countries
Barley
155
31
Wheat
309
25
Chickpea
82
32
Faba Bean
45
7
Lentil
81
18
Forages
28
2
Peas
9
Cereals
Legumes
Grand total:
709
115
Heat-tolerant Wheat in Sudan
ICARDA
Selection of Drought Tolerant Varieties
using more efficient methods
ICARDA

Identification of “Drought” candidate genes
with Microarray (DNA-microarrays is a
modern method that permits analysis of
genes during different growth stages) ;

Use of physiological and molecular markers
in breeding for drought tolerance.
X
ICARDA
Community-Based Optimization of the Management
of Scarce Water Resources in Agriculture in West
Asia and North Africa Project
Project research approach
 Community and participatory
 Integration technologies/policy/institutions
 Complementarities: BM & Satellite sites
 Multidisciplinary, multi-institution teams
 S. economic analysis
 Benchmarking and out-scaling
Water and Land Management
WP Kg wheat grain/m3 H2O
3
BB
RB
IB
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Rainfed
Rainfed systems
with
supplemental
irrigation
Irrigated areas
Increase water
productivity
Water productivty (kg/m3 x10)
20
15
7
6
5
10
4
3
5
Supp.
Irrigation
Drier
Grain yield (t/ha)
Water productivity (Kg/m3)
environments
6.2
5.9
with water
5.3
harvesting4.4
3.1
2
y = -0.4278x2 + 4.7328x - 0.543
2
1
R = 0.7611
2
0.8
1
0
Full
irrigation
0
0
2
rainfed
4
Sowing SI
6
Deficit SI
Land productivtiy (t/ha)
8
Full SI
10
ICARDA
Zero-Till (Direct Sowing) to Conserve Water
and Sequester C in the Soil
Used around the world
 minimum soil disturbance (ZT)
 stubble retention
 many rotations (legumes, oilseeds)
Benefits
 savings in time, fuel, machinery wear
 better soil structure
 soil-water dynamics (OM, porosity)
 Timely sowing, C sequestration
 higher yield potential
 less erosion
ICARDA
Diversification and Sustainable Intensification
of Production Systems
 Promotion of improved technologies for
producing value-added products, to
achieve higher income for rural
communities in the intensified/diversified
integrated crop/rangeland/livestock
production systems
 Methodologies that focus on farming
communities with participatory and
gender-sensitive approaches
ICARDA
Integration of Crop, Rangeland & Livestock
Production Systems
Successful
Technologies
On-farm Feed
Production
Barley Production
By-products Feed
Blocks
Flock management
and breeding
Cactus
& Fodder Shrubs
Natural Pastures Enhancement & Rangeland Management
ICARDA
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise
 Sea level rise is caused by ocean
thermal expansion glacial melt
from Greenland and Antarctica
and change in terrestrial storage.
 Low gradient coastal landforms
most susceptible to inundation
include deltas, estuaries,
beaches and barrier islands and
coral reefs.
ICARDA
Challenges due Sea Level Rise in Agriculture in
the Arab Region
 Sea level rise is a big risk in the Arab countries, since the region’s economic
activity, agriculture and population centers are in the coastal zone.
 Agriculture will be affected by inundation and increasing salinity of soil and
available fresh water resources such as aquifers.
 High salt intrusion is also observed in certain coastal areas due excessive
pumping to intensify crop production (horticultural crops).
 Simulation carried out by AFED revealed that a sea level rise of only 1 m
would directly impact 41,500 km2 of the Arab coastal lands. The most
serious impacts of sea level rise would be in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco,
Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE.
 The effects on the region’s agricultural sector would mostly be felt in Egypt
where 1 m rise would put 12% of the country’s agricultural land at risk and
affect directly 3.2% of the population of the Arab countries.
ICARDA
How to Cope with the Effects of Sea Level
Rise in Agriculture?
Prevention
 Enhance population awareness and develop/implement policies that
facilitate adequate protection and adaptation such as insurance;
 Protect farmers’ lands from flooding and salt water intrusion
(breakwaters, …)
 Take legal actions to restrict or prohibit agriculture development in hazard
-prone areas
Adaptation Strategies (Research is needed)
ICARDA
 GIS and modeling to map the areas with high risk and evaluate possible
impacts;
 Development of early warning system;
 Development and introduction of irrigation techniques that improve
water productivity and hence reduce water pumping and intrusion of
salt (apply water at the right time and amount, drip irrigation)
 Selection and introduction of crops/species that are tolerant to
salinity and with high water productivity;
 Develop norms of fertilizers / amendment that can reduce salt
concentration;
 Soilless / hydroponic cropping;
 Transfer of water (cost, politics) + mixing of water;
 Desalination (cost)
Thank you