Transcript Consequences of climate change on food security in Africa

Consequences of climate change on food
security in Africa
Ruth Haug
Noragric/UMB
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
How bad is the world food
security situation?
Today: About 1 billion foor insecure
people (Almost 6 billion are not hungry)
Future: How to feed 9 billions in
2050? - Is it possible?
 Food security drivers:
– Climate change: decreased production,
misguided policies?
– Food governance/Food prices
– Scarcity: Land, water, food scarcity
– Bio-economy: Bioproduction, energy,
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biofuel
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Who is affected by hunger?
Urban poor
20%
Fishers,
herders 10%
Land less,
rural 20%
Sm all Farm ers
50%
Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force 2005
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Food Price Indices
DETTE ER TITTELEN PÅ PRESENTASJONEN
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World cereal prices 2007-09 (FAO,
2009)
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Food price crisis 2007/08: Explanations
Production
Non-production
 Prod.failure
 Drought
 Diet changes
 Biofuels
 High oil prices
 Low productivity
 Speculations
 Policy failure
 Trade liberalization
 Companies profit
 Structural injustice
Africa
 Climate change
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Food Outlook 2010
(Crop prospects and food situation, FAO,
September 2010)
2010 global cereal production 2 239 million
tons, 1 % lower than 2009 and the third
largest crop ever
The 2010 cereal production and large carry-
over stocks, should be adequate to cover
world cereal utilization in 2010/11.
The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio at the
end of marketing year 2010/11 will decline to
23 percent, still above the 19.6 percent low
level registered in the 2007/08 food crisis
period.
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Food outlook
cont.
 In developing countries, outlook for 2010 cereal crops
is favorable. Good harvests are anticipated in
Eastern&Western Africa. Record cereals crops are
anticipated in China and India.
 Despite lower import volumes in 2010/11, the cereal
import bill for LIFDC, is forecast to increase, as a
result of higher international cereal prices.
 30 countries are in need of assistance as a result of
crop failures, conflict, natural disasters, and high
domestic food prices.
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Food security and climate change
Food insecurity will increase: 2 degrees warmer
world: + 100-400 million hungry people (World Bank, 2009)
Crops will decrease (African countries: 10-30%, Cline 2007)
Increased competition over land and water
(FAO)
Increase food prices in 2050 by 90% for wheat,
12% for rice and 35% for maize (IFPRI, 2009)
Policy measures
(Do no harm?): Agroinvestment & land
grabbing, biofuel, REDD: Marginalization of poor people
Poor people
will be hardest hit by climate change
(Vulnerability, women)
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How to feed the world in 2050
(FAO, 2009)
 FAO: Should be possible to meet future food/feed
demand within land/water resources
 Prerequisites for global food security
– Investment, technology change & productivity growth, trade,
markets & support to farmers
 Risks and challenges
– Hunger in spite of adequate overall supply, Climate change,
Biofuels
 Land reserves: 70 million ha or 5% expansion
 Intensification: 90% of growth in crop production will come from
intenfication
 Sufficient water at global level: Uneven distributed, water
scarcity many places
 Agrobiodiversity: gene pool diminishing
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CGIAR Climate change, Agriculture and
Food Security Research Programme
 Vulnerability assessment –
understanding the problem
 Policy that facilitates change
guiding policy on carbon markets
 Communication: From knowledge to action
 Climate risk management (CRM)
insurance, drought monitoring
 Better use of water
water harvesting, drip irrigation, using waste water, watershed
 Crops for uncertain
future
drought tolerant maize, flood tolerant rice
 Sustainable soil management:
conservation agriculture, ecofarming
 Managing changing pests and diseases
 Livestock systems, fisheries & aquaculture
Diversifying livelihoods with
aquaculture, fodder banks, replanting rangelands, diversifying dairy products
 Forests & forest communities
agroforestry, forest gardens
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FAO: Reducing hunger
through Climate smart
agriculture
 Boosting investment in developing world
agriculture is necessary not only to reduce current
levels of world hunger but to safeguard future
world food supplies against the impacts of climate
change, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf,
Cancun, Mexico.
 "By climate smart”, FAO mean agriculture that
sustainably increases productivity and resilience to
environmental pressures, while at the same time
reduces greenhouse gas emissions or removes
them from the atmosphere.
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Conclusion
 Consequences of CC on FS
– Disaster and/or Opportunity?
 How to ensure food security and climate friendly ag?
– Good governance of food systems
– Poverty friendly Agro-investment
– Job creation, rural diversification, transformation
– Social protection, insurance
– Managing climate risk – robust systems
– Managing Scarcity: Land, water, policy measures
– Develop a conducive Bio-economy (energy, biofuel)
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