Transcript Drivers of Food Security

Context to Workshop
Cathal O’Donoghue
Teagasc Rural Economy and Development Programme (REDP)
Objective
 The motivation for the event is
 To help Public Agri-Food Institutions to develop their strategy
in relation to the engagement with Food Security issues in
Developing Countries.
 The meeting serves as an initial conversation with stakeholders
 To aid our decision making and prioritisation and
 To share potential capacity for collaboration in these goals.
 Presentation
 Give some context to discussion and thoughts for interaction
Feeding the World
Under-nourished Population
Malthusian Catastrophe?
 Will we run out of Natural
resources needed for Food
Production?
 Despite increasing World Population
 Falling % Under-nourished
 More Food per capita
Agricultural & Green Revolutions
 Science based growth
 2%+ cereal yield growth pa
 Ireland has had a good record of
Science-based Agricultural
Productivity Gains
Source FAO
Challenges
Population continues to rise –
6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More food production – need
to double grain production by
2050
Billions
Future Population Growth
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Constant-fertility variant
High variant
Low variant
Medium variant
Source UN
95% of World Population Growth
in Developing World
Huge Gap in Crop Yield between the most
Global Yieldproductive
Variability
and least productive areas
(kg per ha) Challenges for
7000
6000
Knowledge transfer
Capacity
Investment
North America
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Sub-Saharan Africa
0
1960
1970
1980
Arab World
European Union
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia
1990
2000
2010
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America & Caribbean
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source FAO
Yield growth declining
- Biggest gains already achieved
African yield growth catching up
Yield Growth
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.011960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
-0.02
-0.03
Source FAO
World
Sub-Saharan Africa
European Union
Global
With Global Temperature rises is likely to be 1.8 to 4oC Above
1990 Level
- Also Significant Water and other Environmental constraints
Climate change will put pressure on food production
Temperature
- Sub-Saharan Africa  7% yield loss for the main food crops
The scale of warming depends on emissions:
Low scenario 1.1 – 2.9oC Best estimate 1.8 – 4.0oC High scenario 2.4 – 6.4oC
IPCC (2007)
Risk
(with Xavier Vollenweider)
Global Food Price Index
Food Crisis's 2008 and 2010
 Trends
 Economic Growth
 Low cereal stocks due to
demand and bio-energy
Seasonality
Price Spike due to
 Weather risk
 Trend
 Speculation
 Price controls
 Export bans
 Impact magnified through faster
transmission of prices
 Globalisation
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1990
2000
2010
FAO Food Price Index
Source FAO
risk and farmer response to risk also
Food Price Changes Understanding
important in Ireland
- Synergy - Extending models of risk, behaviour and
impact developed in an Irish context with market risk to
Ethiopia with production risk from climate change
 Trend
 Incentives farm investment if price trend high relative to input
trend
 Puts pressure on poor consumers
 Volatility and Price Spikes
 Challenge for producers
 Increases the risk premium associated with investment
decisions
 To deter producers adopting more profitable but riskier
production strategies.
 Challenge for consumers
 Lowers consumption when higher risk
 Risk management is a motivation for continued subsidisation of
Agriculture and Social Protection and Development of
Innovative Mitigation Strategies
Food Security is not just about the production of food
Food Budget
Shares
- Distribution, affordability and access to food also important!!
Food Budget Share
0.9
- Sen’s work on Poverty and Famines
- Higher Food Budget Share in Developing Countries
- More sensitive to price shocks
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Poorest
2
Sri Lanka
Iraq
3
Nigeria
Estonia
4
Pakistan
Brazil
Richest
Moldova
Ireland
Source Authors Calculations – Various Budget Surveys
Under-nourished
2011 Food price spike pushed 68 million into poverty and
pulled 24 million out of poverty – World Bank
Price Spike Resulted in large
increase in under-nourished in
2008-9
Long term effect of
malnourishment on child health
and outcomes
Source FAO
Challenges

3 Challenges:
 Increasing food production
 In a Sustainable & Resilient way
 Increasing Access
Case Study: Iraq
(with Tareq Abuelhaj)
Food Security Challenges in Iraq
 Food Supply and Global Food Price Increases
 The high import dependency (62% of cereals and 48% of
meat) means it is vulnerable to rising global food prices.
 Despite the availability of land and water (Tigris and
Euphrates), productivity of agribusiness is very low.
 1.25 metric tons of wheat per hectare
 Poor agricultural practices
 The quality of research in Iraq is poor
 Poor interface between the science and practice.
Map of Iraq
showing the areas
where vegetation
cover would be
most affected by
climate change by
the year 2020.
Much of the
affected area is
traditional crop
land.
- Iraq is significantly affected by climate change.
- Suffered drought for 3 years in the past 5
- Annual rate of loss of arable land is high – approx. 92% of
land is at risk of desertification
- Wheat yield is likely to fall by 12.5% by the year 2020 due
to climate change
Climate Change and Food Supply
 Projected impact of climate change:
 Pressure from both climate change and growing population
could
 Raise wheat import dependency from 64% (current) to as
high as 76% (2020 projections)
 Rural income from agricultural production will
 Fall by 8% due to climate change alone in 2020 –
 Leading to a decline in food intake by 3% and an
 Estimated increase in the number of food deprived by
another 150,000 in the rural areas.
Food Consumption Subsidy Reform
 Under both fiscal and international pressure, Iraq is planning a
reform of the universal food consumption subsidy present since
the sanctions – called the Public Distribution System (PDS)
 The reform of the PDS is expected to have significant negative
effects on welfare, particularly for the poorest segments of
society.
 For example, in the absence of the PDS, the food budget
share for households below the poverty line would rise from
48.7% up to 63.8%
 Driven largely by a rise in the cost of food locally.
60
Projected impact of reducing the PDS coverage by decile
50
• Current prevalence of food deprivation is 5.7%
• Projected prevalence would rise to 9% with the
elimination of the PDS completely
• Planning for a reform process and instituting
mitigating measures to minimize the impact requires
extensive policy impact analysis.
43
40
33
29
30
20
9
9
10
8
7
5.7
5
6
5
3
4
2 2
3
1
2
0 1 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
Decile 6
Decile 7
Decile 8
Decile 9
Decile 10
0
National
Decile 1
Decile 2
Decile 3
Decile 4
Decile 5
Current
50% reduction
100% reduction
Lessons for discussion today
 Irish Agri-Food Institutions
 Have Expertise and Track Record
 Very Limited Resources Available
 Challenge and Purpose of Workshop
 How to leverage access to this expertise given constraints?
 Not a zero sum game if we
 Focus on priorities
 Focus on synergies
 Focus on most efficient modes of access to expertise
 Learning (and gains) can be two way
Topics for discussion today
 The most important food security needs in developing countries
 Potential Areas of Synergy
 Extension and Education Methods
 Transferable Technologies
 Policy Modelling and Strategic Planning
 Agri-Business
 Modes of Engagement
 Hosting Developing Country Stakeholders,
 Capacity Building Missions,
 Funding Students,
 Joint Research/Education/Knowledge Transfer/Business Ventures
 Physical and Human Capital Infrastructure Development
 Leveraging Expertise in Irish Institutions
 Organisational forms such as networks etc
 Priority countries for support by Ireland?
 Potential Gains (and costs) of Synergy and Leverage
 Constraints (Resources, Organisational scope and objectives)
 Funding mechanisms
Thank You!
Slides from today’s workshop will be available online:
Link from Events section of www.teagasc.ie