Transcript Appendix8HydrometeorologicalhazardsLalljee

Dr. B. Lalljee
Director
Consultancy & Contract Research Centre
University of Mauritius
Reduit,
Mauritius
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Weather, water and climate-related
hazards
Sea level rise
Hot & cold spells
Tropical cyclones
Storm surges
Ice Storms
Droughts
Floods
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
Storm (winds)
Dust storms Wildland fires
& haze
Hail&Lightning
Mud & landslides
Flash floods
Avalanches
Tornadoes
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 Casualties during 2000-2009 were 78,000 per year,
although there were over 200,000 casualties in 2010
alone.
 Although number of people affected by natural events
is increasing, the number of fatalities/deaths due to all
natural disasters is decreasing.
 Could be due to better early warning and preparedness
programmes.
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Exacerbating Factors in Africa
 Lack of adequate human and institutional capacities
for weather and climate modeling and forecasting.
 Weak/ non-existence of national Disaster Risk
Reduction (DRR) and Disaster Management Systems.
 Lack of community based weather and climate Early
Warning Systems (EWS).
 Poor institutional coordination.
 Lack of policy and legal framework on Disaster
Management to facilitate the co-ordination and
implementation of disaster preparedness activities.
 Poverty and low level of disaster resilience in many
communities (making vulnerability very high).
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Climate Change
 A key driver of increasing hydrometeorological
disasters, especially global warming and sea level
rise.
 A challenge to humankind.
 Flooding is a global concern & increasing in its
intensity. It is forecasted that temperature increase
of 3-4oC could result in displacement of nearly 330
million people only through flooding.
 A 1 metre sea level rise would make at least 56
million people environmental refugees in the
developing world.
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Some Climate Change Impacts (IPCC)
In 2100 : half of the world’s population will
sufffer from water stress
Subtropical zones: Less precipitation and
increased desertification
Tropical zones: Increased health risks
High latitudes: permafrost decrease
Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm
surges; salt water intrusions
Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion
USD per year
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Natural Disasters in the World
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Water-related disasters
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Trend in Annual Rainfall Over Mauritius
ANNUAL RAINFALL
4000
3500
3000
MILLIMETRE
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
YEAR
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Extreme weather amplified by global
warming will lead to frequent disasters that
will exceed societal capacity to mitigate and
to adapt
River
flow
Floods
Societal
capacity
Droughts
Present
time
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Trend in Tropical Cyclone Intensity during the last 30 years
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Moderate
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Severe
T.Cyclone
Linear (T.Cyclone)
No. of formations
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35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1975-85
1985-95
1995-2005
Decades
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Global Temperature
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Sea level in Rodrigues
(Mauritius)
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Vulnerability Factors to Flooding
≈ Poor/ inadequate and constricted drainage systems.
≈ Blockage of drains by solid wastes in urban areas.
≈ Uncontrolled logging, deforestation, soil erosion & silting
of river beds.
≈ Removal of sand, gravel and boulders from river beds for
supporting construction industry.
≈ Small river catchment area.
≈ Steep terrain conditions.
≈ Low lying coastal areas.
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Key functional components of Early Warning
Systems for hydrometeorological hazards
 - Risk Assessment, including hazard assessment and
vulnerability analysis
 - Hazard Detection
 - Hazard Prediction
 - Communications and Dissemination
 - Public Awareness
 - Coordination
 - Post-Disaster Support
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Disaster management cycle
Disaster
Preparedness
Mitigation
Response
Recovery
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Framework for guidance and
monitoring of disaster reduction
Risk identification
Knowledge management
Risk management applications
Preparedness and emergency management
Governance support
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Risk identification
Monitoring
Early warning for weather-, water- or climate- related
disasters
Adaptation measures
Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis
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Knowledge Management
Need further improvements in the prediction of highimpact weather and in the full utilization of forecast
information
Need user education and awareness :
to increase weather literacy and interest in
meteorological topics
to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by
the authorities are understood by the intended
users
to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and
preparedness
to enable emergency management authorities to
make well-informed decisions.
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Risk management applications
Examples include :
The Associated Programme on Flood Management promotes the concept of Integrated Flood
Management across sectors.
WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme provides guidance on the development of support
systems for sustainable land management and agroclimatic zoning.
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Preparedness and emergency
management
Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings
of natural hazards coupled with adequate
local preparedness planning are fundamental
requirements for disaster reduction.
Optimal response to natural disasters
requires effective coordination and
cooperation between responsible agencies,
institutions, officials, the media, political
leaders and other players at local, national
and international levels.
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Governance Support
Legislation and adequate normative
framework are essential to implement risk
management.
Political commitment is crucial to allocate
the necessary resources.
Contributions of National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services need to be
integrated in national disaster
management plans.
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International Framework
Natural disasters affect all countries,
but burden falls disproportionately on
developing countries.
Support to natural disaster reduction is
both an issue of sustainable
development and a matter of
environmental justice requiring
international solidarity.
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Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
Strategies for African Countries
 Africa is highly vulnerable to extreme hydro-
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meteorological events, and climate related disasters will
continue to impact on African economies and societies.
Understanding climate risks and their causes is important
in dealing with climate extreme events and disasters.
Downscaling climate information to local levels is critical
in dealing with DRR.
Development of an effective EWS will improve DRR.
Urgent need for the development and strengthening of
flood and drought EWS.
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Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategies
for African Countries contd
 Sensitise Governments to develop appropriate policy frameworks.
 Enhance dissemination and communication for an informed
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decision making and support.
Enhance public education and awareness including institutional
capacity building.
Develop knowledge and share it with relevant institutions.
Strengthen Early Warning Systems for monitoring, detection,
attribution and prediction of high impact weather, climate events
and climate change.
Prioritize hazards and their mappings.
Conduct vulnerability analysis and mapping.
Improve accuracy and use of climate and weather information.
Adopt a bottoms-up, community-based approach to DRR through
community sensitization, education and involvement at all stages :
from risk mapping and assessment, disaster preparedness, response
and recovery stages.
Adopt a multi-hazard approach to DRR.
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Project HD 02: Hydrometeorological Hazards and Disasters in subSaharan Africa: Vulnerability and Resilience
 Objectives
 The objective of this project is to assess the vulnerability of socio-
ecological systems in sub-Saharan Africa to hydrometeorological hazards and disasters, and the resilience of
communities to these
 events. The project also aims at strengthening the capacities of
developing countries for disaster
 planning and management, and for promoting and facilitating
transfer of early warning technologies to
 disaster-prone communities.
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 1. Drought events in sub-Saharan Africa
 Activities
 •Investigating the impacts of climate change and
droughts in the Sahel, including the effect on
 agriculture, water resources, air quality, cattle
production, ecosystems, and health
 •Set up a long-term warning and monitoring system
for climate change, drought and
 desertification
 •Develop human and institutional capacity building
initiatives at the country and regional levels
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Sub projects
 3. Climate change and socio-economic
determinants for anthropogenic fires in
 African savannahs
 4. Dust events and related hazards in sub-Saharan
Africa Activities
 5. Physical and socio-economic approaches for
supporting adaptive water
 management in sub-Saharan Africa (incomplete)
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Next Steps
 3 years have elapsed since the formulation of these
projects
 Change in paradignms and priorities in certain sectors
 Rio +20 conference in Brazil has laid emphasis on
Green economy and Sustainable Development
framework.
 Need to revisit the subprojects in terms of objectives
and outcomes
 Need to reformulate the budget
 Need to complete the subproject on Water
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Conclusion
Climate change, the largest environmental change in this
century is likely to intensify hydro-meteorological hazards
and lead to large-scale population movements/ ecomigration.
Climate change is a human–induced phenomenon. Much
of the issues are intricately linked to social and human
dimensions and the solution to these problems therefore
lies in the social and human dynamics/ action.
No single set of approach can provide solution to the ill
effects of climate change. A mix of technical, behavioral
and policy approaches is needed in minimising the effects
of natural hazards.
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Conclusion contd.
An Integrated Approach is Needed at :
National and regional levels Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services
Cooperation across disciplines and agencies
Links with academic community.
International level Between IGOs and NGOs concerned
Capacity building and transfer of technology
activities.
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Dry reservoir
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Drought
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Flood
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Sunamis
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Sunamis
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l
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Floods in Mauritius
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Thank you for your attention !
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