Transcript Middle East – North Africa and Central Asia CORDEX domains

Middle East – North Africa and
Central Asia CORDEX domains:
an overview (May 2014)
Grigory Nikulin
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Establishing of the MENA CORDEX Domain
• Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in
the Arab Region (RICCAR) http://www.escwa.un.org/RICCAR/
• a few international agencies (UN-ESCWA, UNEP, WMO, UNISDR
and FAO) and regional partners (ACSAD and League of Arab
States), funded by SIDA (Sweden)
• The RICCAR initiative was founded to assess climate change
impacts on water resources over the Arab Region (started 2011)
• A first step within RICCAR was to establish a common modelling
domain for regional downscaling
• This began independently from CORDEX but advantages to
following CORDEX standards quickly became apparent
• About 10 different configurations of the MENA CORDEX domain
were tested at SMHI with input from the regional partners
partners (ACSAD, KAU, KAUST)
• The MENA-CORDEX domain is based on user needs
MENA CORDEX Domain
• Martin Juckes and Stephen Pascoe (BADC, UK)
• North: including the Euphrates and Tigris catchment area
• South: including the White Nile catchment
• East: including the Arabian Sea (tropical storms from the Arabian Sea)
MENA CORDEX Modeling groups
• Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands/League of
Arab States (ACSAD) Damascus, Syria [RegCM]
• Bogazici University (BOUN) Istanbul, Turkey [RegCM and RCA4]
• Centro EuroMediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC),
Capua, Italy [CCLM4-21_clm2]
• Climate Service Center Germany (CSC), Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany [REMO2009]
• The Cyprus Institute, Energy Environment & Water Research Center
(CYI-EEWRC), Nicosia, Cyprus [WRF351]
• Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King
Abdulaziz University (KAU), Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
[RegCM]
• King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST),
Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [hi-res global GCM: GFDL-HiRAM]
• Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
(SMHI), Norrkoping, Sweden [RCA4]
CORDEX-MENA Matrix (RCMs-GCMs)
IPSLCM5A-MR
GFDLESM2M
MPI-ESMLR
CMCC-CM
HadGEM2ES
CNRMCM5
CanESM2
EC-EARTH
8 CMIP5 GCMs, mixed RCP45 and 85, 25 and 50km
25km
ACSAD-RegCM
BOUN-RegCM
50km
BOUN-RCA4
50km
50km
CMCC-CCLM
50km
CSC-REMO
50km
CYI-WRF
50km
KAU-RegCM
50km
50km
50km
25km
KAUST-HiRAM
SMHI-RCA4
50km
+25km
rcp85
+25km
rcp85
50km
MENA-CORDEX downloads (MNA-44)
Most popular variables: minimum temperature, precipitation,
mean, maximum temperature and wind
• User needs: minimum temperature is important for agriculture
MENA-CORDEX downloads (MNA-22)
Most popular variables: minimum temperature, precipitation,
mean, maximum temperature and wind
MENA-CA ISSI proposal
• International Space Science Institute (ISSI, Bern) call for proposals
2014 for International Teams in Space and Earth Sciences
• the MENA-CA proposal was prepared for the ISSI call in 2013 but by
a number of reasons has not been submitted
• not so much resources provided in the call: support for two
meetings in Bern and some funding for a PhD student
• this year it was not so easy to find who can take the lead
• with support from WCRP (Michel Rixen) Panos Hadjinicolaou (the
Cyprus Institute) took the lead in the proposal (submitted)
• 12 partners: JPL/NASA, ESA, DWD and all 8 MENA-CA RCM groups
• establishing a MENA-CA network for regional modeling
• to consolidate a number of space-based climate data records into
the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES);
• to develop a coordinated effort for a systematic assessment of
historical MENA-CA CORDEX simulations
• decision at the end of May 2014
CORDEX-Central Asia
Levent Kurnaz (Boğaziçi Üniversitesi - Fizik Bölümü, İstanbul)
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•
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RegCM4.1:
ERAINT (1989-2010) - done
ECHAM5 A1B (1970-2000, 2070-2100) -done
RegCM4.3.5:
HadGEM2 (hist. 1951-2005, rcp45 and 85 2006-2100) – done
MPI-ESM-MR – planned
IPSL-CM5A-LR – planned
RCA4 (planed)