Transcript Global Supply, Demand and Trade of Pulses: Recent

th
6
Global Pulse Summit
Agriwatch
th
th
4 -5 December 2010
Pulses
Can they help fight Food
Shortage & Climate Change?
Sudhakar TOMAR
Managing Director
HAKAN AGRO DMCC
Dubai ( United Arab Emirates)
Chairperson ( Communications & Sponsorships)
CICILS-IPTIC- World Pulses Organization
Originators , Processors , Supply Chain
multinational dealing in Pulses, Oilseeds, Animal
feeds & Frozen poultry & Dairy .
Headquartered in Dubai (UAE) with operations in
USA , Myanmar, Azerbaijan , Mozambique
Uganda, Brazil, China, Iraq, Canada , Ukraine,
Nigeria, Turkey , Ethiopia , Bulgaria , Georgia
,Switzerland, Pakistan,Tanzania, SKyrgyzstan
,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Tajikistan
Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage &
Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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CICILS - (World Pulses Organization )
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Established in 1963 . Non-profit
confederation of Global Pulses Industry
Membership base : national associations ,
governmental bodies , NGOs , 600 +
corporates from over 50 countries.
CICILS (World Pulses Organization) is an
observer status body with United Nations
& FAO.
In 2009 CICILS head office was shifted
from France to Dubai (UAE)
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Are Pulses & Legumes the answer?
What are Pulses & Legumes ?
One & only major source of
“Vegetable Protein”
 Dry edible seeds of Leguminous
crops
 Include Peas , Beans , Lentils &
Chickpeas
 Pulses are best kept “ Super
Food” secret

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Pulses vs. other food products
Product
Production
Global-Trade
Protein
Pulses
62
11
20 to 25%
Palm Oils
38
30
N/A
Corn
771
87
3 to 4%
Rice
660
32
7 to 8.3 %
Wheat
676
116
10 to 12.5%
Barley
153
19
10%
Poultry Meat
93
9.6
23%
(Million MT)
(Million MT)
(As % body
weight)
Pulses industry size : 62 Million Tons
Value : US$ 100 Billion
Food-Feed-Protein-Agronomical benefits
Environment friendly-Ethical-Green
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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United colours of Pulses
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What kind of pulses are grown in the
world ?
Pigeon Peas
5%
Lupins
2%
Others
8%
Dry Beans
34%
Lentils
5%
Cow Peas
7%
Dry Broad
Beans
7%
Chickpeas
13%
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
Dry Peas
19%
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Major Producers
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Major Exporters
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Major Importers
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Overall a diversified
supply , demand and
production base
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The Genesis
Present situation
Future – 2050 ?
The real crisis
How to feed the world ?
What can we do about it ?
Smart solutions : Pulses
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Food Crisis 2007-2008
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Food riots in 22 countries
Toppling of governments
Deaths & Starvation
Addition of 100 million hungry
people
However……..It was a PRICES
CRISIS not a FOOD CRISIS
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What led to the built
up of
Food Crisis of
2007/2008
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1. Flat global food production
2. Population growth
3. Food for Oil
4. Rising income
5. Changing eating habits
6. Declining subsidies
7. Increasing costs of Inputs
8. funds
9. Increasing urbanization
10. Climate Change / Global
Warming
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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FDI in Agriculture
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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FDI in Agri-business – Who
invested Where ?
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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What is the status
NOW ??
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Backgrounder
Global Food Outlook
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FAO data as of June 2010
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Global Ag Consumption Trends
Population
Wheat
Coarse Grains
Rice
Other Meal
Soy Meal
Other Veg Oil
Soy Oil
Palm Oil
Beef
Pork
1989/90
2009/10
5.2 Billion
6.8 Billion
519.6
642.42
711.25
1026.37
323.37
433.77
46.29
77.92
65.77
158.80
27.80
53.79
15.64
37.51
10.4
44.33
49.451
56.116
63.65
100.02
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% Change
31%
24%
44%
34%
168%
141%
93%
140%
380%
14%
57% 22
World Major Crop Fundamentals
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Major Crop Production
Not Keeping up with Demand
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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World Ethanol & Biodiesel
Production 2008-1018
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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USA Bio-Fuel Mandate
( Billion Barrels )
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Climate Change Denial
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Global Warming denial
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Climate Change : our Inaction
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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How to solve the Climate Change problem ?
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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World Population: 2010 vs. 2050
Source: UN-FAO
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2010
2020
2030
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2040
2050
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World Population in 2050
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Not much arable land left to
grow
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Water Wars
Water
2/3 of water
is used for
Agriculture
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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That brings us to our main
questions…
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Is there REALLY a food
crisis in the world or is
it a case of minor
mismatch of supply &
demand ??
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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There are over 1
Billion people who
go to bed hungry
every night”
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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..and where we live
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The Real Crisis
The classic
mismatch
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>30% of North
America is
OBESE
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Prevalence of Overweight/Obese Children in
the US
Since 1980, the
number of OBESE
US children has
TRIPLED!
1 out of 3
Children and
2 out of 3 Adults are
Overweight or
Obese
Overweight young
people are more
likely than children
of normal weight to
become
overweight or
obese adults!
Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage &
Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
Source: American Obesity Association
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Global warming will cut into
world grain yields and result in
less food being available in the
developing world in 2050,
"calorie availability" will decline
by 7 percent compared to 2000.
IFPRI
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How to feed
additional 2.5
billion people in
our lifetime ?
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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How to feed the next generations
 Improve Yields by using High Yield
Seeds
 Manage Resources carefully
Save crops from Pests & Diseases
Make Agri-technology available to
the small and marginal farmers in
the third world
Increase Public & Private investment
in Agriculture and R&D
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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The good news is that
Yes there are enough
resources ,
awareness , resolve ,
extra land & water
and seed technology
to grow enough food
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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But the bad news is that
The this food will not
be Cheap or
affordable
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more bad news is that
although there will be
enough food but not
enough money with
poor people to buy .. so
we have figure out
smart solutions
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Smart solutions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Life style adjustments –for rich &
poor
Eat /Promote smart Protein =
Pulses & Legumes
Consume less (Food-WaterEnergy)
Less wastage of resources
Raise awareness & Educate others
Push the policymakers to do the
right thing
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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The cost of Meat ( Animal protein)
Meat and dairy animals account for
about 20 percent of all terrestrial
animal biomass.
The livestock sector is the biggest
contributor to greenhouse gases @ 18
percent than transport.
It is also a major source of land and
water degradation.
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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The cost of Meat (Animal protein)
With increased prosperity, people are consuming
more meat and dairy products every year.
Global meat production is projected to more than
double from 229 Million MTs in 1999/2001 to 465
million MTs in 2050
Also milk output is set to climb from 580 MTs in
year 2000 to 1043 million tonnes in 2050.
Livestock now use 33 percent of the earth’s
entire land surface or arable land
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Water Footprint
1,857
Gallons/
lb
43 gallons of water to produce
one pound of pulses.
Beef
Pork
756
Gallons/
lb
Source: Arjen Y. Hoekstra and Ashok
Chapagain, Globalization of Water, U. of
Twente, Waterfootprint.org
National Geographic, April 2010
1,857 gallons of water to produce one
pound of beef.
Pulses
Chicken
469
Gallon
s/lb
Soybeans
Peanuts
368
Gallons
/lb
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Gallons
/lb
216
Gallons
/lb
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APA
It is Ironical
That every 4 minutes 2090 Cows ;
9150 Pigs ; 334,120 Chickens are
slaughtered to feed the people but at
the same time
100 children die of hunger.
That over 1.1 Billion people don’t have
access to clean drinking water but we use
20,000 Litres of water to produce 1 Kilo of
Beef
Global consumption of
Meat is about 300
Million MTs. It requires
over 4.5 Billion MTs of
agricultural crops to
grow
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Raising Livestock for Meat is
inefficient
Raising livestock a very inefficient
use of land
Example : 160 kg of potatoes
could be harvested on the
same amount of land needed
to produce 1 kg of meat
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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A target of just 10%
replacement of animal
protein (Meat & Dairy) with
vegetable protein (Pulses)
will free up about 500 million
MTs of food crop in the
market ensuring adequate
ECONOMICAL food supply to
the world
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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USA alone could feed
800 million people
with grain that
livestock eat (without
compromising the required per capita
meat consumption)
Cornell university ecologists
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So in a
nutshell
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PULSES
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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Consume more Pulses
Promote Pulses
Help Fight Hunger
Combat Climate Change
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Thank you
Invitation
CICILS - WORLD PULSES CONVENTION
April 28th –May 1st 2011
Barcelona , Spain
Estimated Attendees : > 700
From > 60 countries
www.cicilsiptic.org
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Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar
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