Transcript Water research, engagement, & tools

Water Research in the SECC
Puneet Srivastava
Auburn University
Weather
Week 1
Week 2 Week 3
Week 4
SeasonalInterannual
Decadal
Climate Change
Recent Research Activities
Extension, Assessment, and Engagement Activities
including those in support of NIDIS
SEWaterClimate.org
Funding provided by the RISA program is heavily leveraged by funding from other
sources (NASA, NIDIS, NOAA-SARP, USDA, etc.)
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Improves
Reference ET (ETo) Forecasts in the SE USA
Tian, D. and C.J. Martinez. 2014. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(3): 1152-1165.
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All forecast skill were
generally positive for up to
lead day 7 throughout the
year, with higher skill in
cooler months compared to
warmer months.
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Evaluated daily ETo forecasts using the GEFS reforecasts
in the SE US and to incorporate the ETo forecasts into
irrigation scheduling to explore the usefulness of the
forecasts for water management.
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ETo was estimated using the Penman–Monteith
equation, and ensemble forecasts were downscaled
and bias corrected using a forecast analog approach.
Seasonal Prediction of Regional Reference Evapotranspiration
Based on Climate Forecast System Version 2
Tian, D., C.J. Martinez, and W.D. Graham. 2014. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(3):
1166-1188.
MSESS
BSS Below BSS Near BSS Above
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The 12-km ETo forecasts were produced by
downscaling coarse-scale ETo forecasts from
the CFSv2 retrospective forecast archive and
by downscaling CFSv2 maximum temperature
(Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean
temperature (Tmean), solar radiation (Rs),
and wind speed (Wind) individually and
calculating ETo using those downscaled
variables.
BSS Below
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The CFSv2-based ETo
forecasts showed higher
predictability in cold seasons
than in warm seasons.
Lead
Time
BSS Near
BSS Above
Martinez – Water Research
• Improved Municipal Water Demand Forecasts for Tampa Bay Water
o Tian, D., Martinez, C.J. and T. Asefa. Improving short-term urban water
demand forecasts using forecast analogs of the Global Ensemble Forecast
System (GEFS). Submitted to Journal of Hydrology.
• Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in the
SE USA
o Tian, D., Martinez, C.J., Graham, W.D., and S. Hwang. 2014. Statistical
downscaling of multi-model forecasts for seasonal precipitation and surface
temperature over the southeastern USA. Journal of Climate, 27(22): 83848411.
• Probability of Exceedance Streamflow Forecasts for Tampa Bay Water
o Risko, S.L. and C.J. Martinez. 2014. Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in westcentral Florida using multiple climate predictors. Journal of Hydrology, 519A:
1130-1140.
Forecast Streamflows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF)
River Basin using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions
P. Srivastava and G. Mirhosseini
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Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) in
the basin is used to develop a streamflow forecasting tool
Evaluate approaches (e.g. analog, ENSO trend, combined analog) to streamflow forecasting
A variety of stakeholders (boating groups, state regulatory agencies, dam operators, etc.)
are interested in streamflow forecasts.
ENSO Impacts on Groundwater Levels in the Lower
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Subhasis Mitra, Sarmistha Singh, and Puneet Srivastava
Objectives
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Quantify the effect of ENSO-induced climate variability on
groundwater levels under different overburden conditions
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Quantify how pumping for irrigation exacerbates the effect
of La Nina on groundwater levels, and
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Develop procedure for forecasting groundwater levels using
ENSO forecasts.
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La Nina
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El Nino
GW Anomalies
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Effects of Irrigation Pumpage During droughts on
Groundwater Levels and Groundwater Budget Components
Upper Floridan Aquifer System
Irrigation
USCU
Aquifer Outcrop
5 5
2 2
I NR BC S
4 4
9 9
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8 8
BC S
BC S
BC S
Oct
Dec
Jan
Feb
Streams
MODular Finite Element Model (MODFE)
Regional Flow
Infiltration
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Percentage
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BC S
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BC S
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BC S
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BC S
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May
June
4 4
5 5
BC S
2 2
BC S
BC S
July
Aug
Sep
MODFE is used to study the effects of irrigation
on groundwater levels and groundwater budget
components
Climate variability impacts on low stream flows in
the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
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Studying individual and coupled impacts of
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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
Quantify the effect of groundwater pumpage
on stream-aquifer flow and federallyprotected species residing in the lower ACF
river basin using the Modular Finite Element
(MODFE) groundwater model
% Change in Baseflow
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Pos
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El Nino
La Nina
PDO
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PDO
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F
What do climate projections say about future droughts in
Alabama?
Nischal Mishra and Puneet Srivastava
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The objective of the study is to quantify
how frequency, severity and spatial extent
of droughts is expected to change in
Alabama.
Climate projections are used from three
GCMs: Hadley Centre Coupled Model
Version 3 (HadCM3), Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and
Community Climate System Model
(CCSM)
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and
Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) have been
computed
Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
and Self-calibrating Palmer’s Drought
Severity Index (sc_PDSI) will be computed
as well.
Effect of Climate Change on Rainfall and Runoff Erosivity
in the Southeast US
Nafiul Islam and Puneet Srivastava
Erosivity
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Erosive force of precipitation events
(MJmm/h/ha/yr)
Defined by how hard it rains (intensity)
and how much it rains (amount)
Calculated using long term precipitation
data
Used in the Revised Universal Soil Loss
Equation (RUSLE2) mathematical model
Datasets Used
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COAPS Land Atmosphere Regional Ensemble
Climate Change Experiment for the South East
US at 10 km (CLAREnCE10) for the current
(1968-2000) and future climate (2038-2070).
(Source: FSU)
Gridded observed precipitation data at 12km
resolution from 1949-2010. (Source: Ed Mauer)
Station precipitation data (Source: NOAA)
Daily assessment of water stress on corn GriDSSAT
Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy
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GriDSSAT uses NASA LIS data and satellite-derived
insolation
Being used to inform state-level policy
Reported in the NASA 2012 annual report
Water stress on other crops (e.g., soybeans, cotton,
and peanuts) are being incorporated in GriDSSAT
http://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/pdf/2012AnnualReport_508.pdf; http://gridssat.nsstc.uah.edu/
Center Pivot Irrigation Inventory and Demand
Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy
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As part of Alabama’s efforts to both
promote irrigation AND protect our water
resources; detailed information about water
use (and location) is a must.
UAH’s Earth Systems Science Center (ESSC)
embarked on a center pivot survey as part
of a larger effort to identify where and how
much water is being used in the state.
Center Pivot Irrigation Inventory and Demand
Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy
• 2013 Center pivot acreage
results aggregated by county
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Center pivot acreage over time (2006,
2009, 2011 & 2013 data surveys)
Analysis Using Center Pivot Survey Data
Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy
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Center pivot irrigation demand based
on 50-year crop model results
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Center pivot acreage as a percentage
of total HUC-12 watershed acreage
Fact Sheets,
Presentations
Products &
Tools
Web portals
SEWaterClimate.org
ENGAGEMENT
Networks
Assessment
& Evaluation
National Integrated
Drought Information
System (NIDIS)
Engagement and Assessment
…to increase the regional relevance and usability
of climate and sea level rise models for water
suppliers and resources managers in Florida
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Learning Network
Actionable Science
Building Community
Shared Interests
Building Identity
Managing Diversity
Sustainability
Partners
6 Water Utilities
4 Universities
3 Water Mgt Districts
Local governments
Public
Growing strong -3 years—10 workshops--25 participants–2 funded projectsproposals-papers-new knowledge-searchable website FloridaWCA.org
This work is partially funded under a grant from the Sectoral Applications Research
Program (SARP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Climate Program Office.
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Rigorous Science
User Perspective
Varied Contexts
Communicating
Science
SEWaterClimate.org
Data Display Tool
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Developed by NCSU
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Displays present and past
water conditions over
different geographic areas
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Displays stream flows,
precipitation, groundwater
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Includes radar estimates of
rainfall over specified time
periods
Daily past evaporation data and historical
monthly evaporation
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Developed by NCSU
Radar-based Drought Monitoring
Using methods developed at Texas A&M, we’re building tools using NWS weather
radar data to provide very local estimates of drought severity (~5km)
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Developed by NCSU
Data will be compared to field assessments to associate local impacts
of drought with the radar-based indices of drought severity.
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Support for this effort is provided by USDA.
Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
Seasonal Forecast Downscaling
Screenshots from Experimental
Seasonal Precipitation Outlook Pages
http://omega.meas.ncsu.edu/climate
/SFXmap.php
Future Directions
 Continue to pursue applied research that help reduce climate risks
for water stakeholders
 Initiate research activities that utilize intra-seasonal (week 3 and
week 4) forecasts being developed by the Climate Prediction Center
 Conduct integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts
on water resources
 Continue to develop products, tools, information sheets, etc. to
keep stakeholders informed and engaged; periodically conduct
stakeholder assessment to identify needs
 Fully develop and deploy SEWaterClimate.org
 Continue to assist with (and expand) NIDIS activities in the
Southeast