Transcript NB-DSS
Pilot Applications of the Nile Basin Decision Support System Client: NBI - Nile Basin Initiative Trans-Boundary Water Management in Africa Africa’s 63 trans-boundary river basins account for: • 1/3 of the World’s major international river basins • 93% of the total African water resource • 77% of the Continent’s population The Nile Basin - Facts • Longest River in World: 6700 km • Source : Burundi (Kagera River) • Basin Area: 3.2 million km2 (10% of Africa) • Basin shared by 11 countries: Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda • Population: 190 million in basin (18% Africa) • Avg. flow rate at mouth : 84 billion m3/a 3 Hydrology of the Nile Tributary Total runoff (billion m3/a) White Nile 26 (30%) Blue Nile 48 (60%) Atbara 10 (10%) Total @ Aswan 84 Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) • Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) - Formally launched in Feb 1999 by the water ministers of riparian countries that share the river - with Eritrea as an observer • Partnership among the Nile Riparian states that “seeks to develop the river in a cooperative manner, share substantial socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional peace and security” • Initiated seven Shared Vision Programmes • Investment projects under ENSAP and NELSAP NB-DSS: Key focus areas Result of comprehensive DSS needs assessment by the NBI : NBDSS Developed by DHI in Phase 1 Information Management System (IMS) supports storage, retrieval and processing of various types of data Dynamic Water balance Model support analysis of the water resources system, reservoir operation, water quality modelling Scenario management module supports creating, editing, running and analyzing water resources development and management scenarios Optimisation module Hydrological models supports estimation of land use/cover changes on water resources estimation of climate change impacts on river flow Hydrodynamic model Economic analysis tools Multi-criteria analysis tools support for identification of win-win development alternatives NB-DSS: Software components Aurecon Project Objectives for Phase 2 • Overall • “to ensure that the NB-DSS becomes a reliable and sustainable software system” • Specific • to produce quality assured data sets that are relevant for NB-DSS applications • to apply the NB-DSS for pilot project cases that are relevant for transboundary water resources management in the Nile basin with real scenarios • to train stakeholders from the riparian countries in the application of the NB-DSS Pilot Cases 1. NELSAP Multi-Sectoral Investment Program – Focus on Kagera Basin 2. Impacts of water resource developments on the Sudd 3. Eastern Nile Joint Multipurpose Programme 4. NELSAP Multi-Sectoral Investment Program - Focus on Equatorial Nile Basin 5. Integrated Water Resources Development of the Baro-Akobo Basin 6. Impact of Atbara-Tekeze River Upstream Developments on the Main Nile Downstream 7. Integrated basin wide application of the NB-DSS 6 3 5 2 4 1 Scenarios • • • • • • Cumulative developments / Development alternatives (3 to 5 per sub-basin) Climate change (Blue Nile) Operating rules • maximise HP • sediment control • environmental flows • optimise Full basin development Soil Loss / Sedimentation Flood Damage - Lower Blue Nile Scenario Evaluation: NB-DSS QA Data NB-DSS - Models INDICATORS Environmental Social Economic SCEN 1 SCEN 2 SCEN 3 QUANTIFY Response functions - DSS time series outputs Interrogation of Spatial Data – ArcGIS Economic Tools (CBA) External Data NB-DSS : SCENARIO MANAGER SPREADSHEET MANAGER GIS MANAGER NB-DSS : SCENARIO MANAGER SCRIPT MANAGER TIMESERIES MANAGER SPREADSHEET MANAGER DEFINE CRITERIA NORMALISATION / WEIGHTING / LIMITS MCA NB-DSS : MCA CBA Scenario Manager Scope of Work Thank you!