Transcript Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On

Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments Hands-On
Training Workshop
Human Health Sector
Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group
1A.1
Outline
Qualitative example
WHO Inter-Regional Workshop on Health
Impacts from Climate Variability and Change in
the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region
Mukteshwar, India 3-7 October 2005
Quantitative example
WHO Global Burden of Disease
Sudan Initial National Communication
Steps in Assessing Vulnerability
and Adaptation
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Describe the current distribution and burden of
climate-sensitive diseases
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Describe the association between climate and disease
outcomes
Identify and describe current strategies, policies, and
measures to reduce that burden
Review the health implications of the potential impact
of climate variability and change on other sectors
Estimate future potential health impacts using
scenarios of climate change
Identify additional adaptation measures to reduce
potential negative health effects
Climate-Sensitive Health Outcomes
Mountain Regions
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Heatwaves
Flood deaths/morbidity
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Vector-borne disease
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Glacial lake floods
Flash
Riverine (plain)
Malaria
Japanese Encephalitis
Kala-azar
Filariasis
Dengue
Water-borne diseases
Water scarcity, quality
Drought-related food insecurity
Current Burden of Disease in Bhutan
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Flood deaths/morbidity
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Vector-borne disease
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Glacial lake floods
Flash
Malaria
Kala-azar
Filariasis
Water-borne diseases
Water scarcity, quality
Drought-related food insecurity
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Particularly Vulnerable Populations
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Glacial lake floods: Elderly, poor, nomadic,
children, disabled or infirm, women,
independently living ethnic groups in
remote areas
Flash: Everyone in the path of the floods
Riverine (plains): Elderly, poor, nomadic,
children, the disabled or sick, women, and
people in poor housing, coastal areas,
institutions, or on isolated islands
Steps in Assessing Vulnerability
and Adaptation
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Describe the current distribution and burden of
climate-sensitive diseases
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Describe the association between climate and disease
outcomes
Identify and describe current strategies, policies, and
measures to reduce that burden
Review the health implications of the potential impact
of climate variability and change on other sectors
Estimate future potential health impacts using
scenarios of climate change
Identify additional adaptation measures to reduce
potential negative health effects
Adaptation Options
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Climate-sensitive diseases are a problem
today with programs in place to try to
reduce their burden
Current programs will need to be revised
and augmented to cope with climate
change-related risks
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New programs may be needed to address
changes in the geographic range of some
vector-borne diseases
WHO Global Burden of
Disease Approach
McMichael AJ, Campbell-Lendrum D, Kovats S,
Edwards S, Wilkinson P, Wilson T, et al. 2004 Global
Climate Change. In: Comparative Quantification of
Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease
due to Selected Risk Factors. Eds. Ezzati M, Lopez A,
Rodgers A, Murray C. P 1543-1649. WHO, Geneva
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Data Sources
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WHO World Health Report
Chapter 20 of the Global Burden of Disease
Study
Output from MAGICC-SenGen
WHO World Health Report Annexes
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Basic indicators for all WHO member states
Deaths by cause, gender, and mortality
stratum for WHO regions
DALYs
Healthy life expectancy
National level indicators
National health accounts
Millennium Development Goals
WHO South-East Asia Region
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B = countries with low child and low adult
mortality
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Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand
D = countries with high child and high adult
mortality
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Bangladesh, Bhutan, Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea, India, Maldives, Myanmar,
Nepal, Timor-Leste
Diseases Included in WHR
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Diarrheal diseases
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In 2002, worldwide there were 1,798,000
deaths or 3.2% of all deaths
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Burden in SEAR-B was 41,000 deaths
Burden in SEAR-D was 563,000 deaths
Malaria
Schistosomiasis
Dengue
Protein-calorie malnutrition
GBD Health Outcomes Considered
Outcome Class
Incidence /
prevalence
Outcome
Direct effects of heat and
cold
Incidence
Cardiovascular disease deaths
Foodborne & waterborne
diseases
Incidence
Diarrhoea episodes
Vector-borne diseases
Incidence
Malaria cases
Natural disasters
Incidence
Incidence
Deaths due to unintentional injuries
Other unintentional injuries
Risk of malnutrition
Prevalence
Non-availability of recommended
daily calorie intake
McMichael et al., 2004
WHO Global Burden of Disease
Exposure-Response Relationships
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5% increase in diarrheal incidence per
degree C increase in temperature
Central, low, and high relative risks estimated
relative to baseline climate
For example, for 2030, the central estimate
for unmitigated emissions for SEAR-B was
1.00 and for SEAR-D was 1.09
Calculating Potential Future
Disease Burdens Using
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Baseline burden of disease
Relative risk increase per temperature
change
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Output from MAGICC-SenGen
Estimate qualitatively how much adaptation
could decrease disease burden
Sudan National Communication
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Using an Excel spreadsheet, modeled
malaria based on relationships described in
MIASMA
Calculated monthly changes in transmission
potential for the Kordofan Region for the
years 2030-2060, relative to the period 19611990 using the IPCC IS92A scenario,
simulation results of HADCM2, GFDL, and
BMRC, and MAGICC/SCENGEN
Sudan – Projected Increase in
Transmission Potential of Malaria in 2030
Sudan – Projected Increase in
Transmission Potential of Malaria in 2060
Sudan – Malaria Projections
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Malaria in Kordofan Region could increase
significantly during the winter months in the
absence of effective adaptation measures
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The transmission potential during these months is
75% higher than without climate change
Under HADCM2, the transmission potential in
2060 is more than double baseline
Transmission potential is projected to decrease
during May-August due to increased temperature
Thank you
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