Transcript Medios de Vida Sustentable

Andean Livelihood Strategies and
the Impact of Market and Climate
Shocks: Risks Perceptions and
Coping Mechanisms
Corinne Valdivia, Elizabeth Jimenez
Jere Gilles, Alejandro Romero and Leonie Marks
University of Missouri MU
Universidad de la Cordillera UC
Outline
• Introduction - diversity and adaptation
• Theoretical framework: overview &
hypothesis
• The sites and data
• Methods results and analysis
• Conclusions
Introduction
• Climate change and food security (Loeb et
at, 2008; Brown and Funk, 2008, Science)
• Climate change and Andean livelihoods –
trends and projections
• Livelihoods, capitals, and decisions –
perceptions of risks
Purpose
• To determine the perceptions about climate and
market risks given the livelihood strategies
defined by income, human capital and life cycle
characteristics.
• Under objective 2, understand how risk
perceptions shape livelihood strategies and
decisions to include new knowledge in practices
and strategies; how to communicate climate
information in this context.
Theoretical Framework
• Sustainable livelihoods (Chambers and Conway;
Ellis).
• Shocks impact on livelihoods in the Andes:
climate, prices, political uprising, and
idiosyncratic events.
• Diversification of the economic portfolio to
smooth income (Valdivia et al; Reardon et al).
• Liquidating assets, temporary migration,
remittances to smooth consumption
(Zimmerman and Carter).
• Risk perception rather than actual risk can
influence decision making (Rockstrom et al.).
Rural Livelihood Strategies
Assets
Activities
Outcomes
Outputs
Conditions:
• Production and
consumption interlinked
• Markets are unreliable
• Limited credit markets
• Smoothing of
consumption affects
productive assets
• Social dimensions to
accessing resources
relevant
Coping and Adapting
Ex-ante: Income Smoothing
– Diversifying:
• within agriculture
• selling labor
• value added
– Seasonal migration
– > less covariant
activities in the
household portfolio
Valdivia, 2004
Ex-post: Consumption
Smoothing
– Loans
– Sale of assets
– Migration
Adapting:
• Recovering, reducing,
avoiding shocks and
stresses – Incorporating
climate resilient
strategies
Working Hypotheses
• Income, education and life cycle determine
distinct clusters of livelihood strategies
• Perceived climate risks are the most
significant risks facing communities, where
perceptions of risks rank higher when
there are less assets to cope with shocks
The sites and data
Andean Climate Variability and Change
• Climate variability - inter annual variability
& spatial variability
• ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) spatial variability
• Climate trends – the past 30 years spatial variability
• Climate Change 2030-50 and 2099, global
models – Altiplano grid (Seth and
Thiebault 2008)
Ancoraimes
Four
Rural
Communities
3850 - 4300
Umala
4 rural
communities
3,770 - 4,070m
Regional Differences
Income Level & Diversification:
differences
Household income levels in Umala are twice the income
of Ancoraimes
Annual Income in $us
5000
Other so urces o f
inco me
4500
4000
3500
3000
Inco me fo r independent
activities
2500
2000
Inco me from wages
1500
1000
Inco me fo r agricultural
activities
500
0
Ancoraimes
Jimenez Valdivia and Romero
Umala
Human Capital: gender differences
Years of schooling
In both contexts, women have lower schooling
than men
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Ancoraimes
Male
Umala
Female
Natural Capital: Land Use and Size
Ancoraimes and Umala
Hectareas de terreno (2005-006)
5
Has
4
3
2
1
0
Sembradas
Descanso
Pastizales
Uso de la tierra
Ancoraimes
Umala
Alfares
Natural Capital:
crop diversification
Greater diversity of potato varieties in Umala
Greater crop diversification in Ancoraimes
50
30
Porcentage
Porcentage
40
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
Number of varieties
9
11
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Number of Crops
Ancoraimes
Umala
Ancoraimes
Umala
Dread of pests in disease high
Dread of frosts, floods, drought differentiated by region
Ancoraimes
Porcino
Vacuno
mejorado
Auquénido
Umala
Vacuno
criollo
Oveja
mejorada
Oveja
criolla
Promedio
Livestock Assets
Tenencia de ganado
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Social Capital: individual’s participation within
producer and community organizations
Participation in community organizations is
basically the same in both sites
100
Porcentage
80
60
40
20
0
Producer Organizations
Ancoraimes
Community Organizations
Umala
Differences in the nature of social capital and
articulation to markets
Access to credit is limited
Acceso a crédito en los últimos 5 años
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
No
50%
40%
Si
30%
20%
10%
0%
Ancoraimes
Umala
Fuente de crédito
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Ancoraimes
Banco, Ongs Financieras
Umala
Amigos, Familiares
Availability of contingency markets to buffer shocks varies by region
communities and households
Cluster Analysis
• Variables – total income, years of
schooling of head of household, age of
head of household
• Three groups identified
–I
– II
– III
Active – productive stage life cycle
Active – early stage life cycle
Pasive (pasivos) - elderly
ANCORAIMES
UMALA
GRUPOI
ACTIVOS
Hogares en
etapa productiva
del ciclo de vida
y con altos
ingresos
GRUPOII
JOVENES
Hogares jóvenes
de medianos
ingresos, con
mayor capital
humano
GRUPOIII
PASIVOS
Hogares en
etapa
descendente del
ciclo de vida, con
menores
ingresos y menor
capital humano
GRUPOI
ACTIVOS
Hogares en
etapa productiva
del ciclo de vida
y con altos
ingresos
GRUPOII
JOVENES
Hogares jóvenes
de medianos
ingresos, con
mayor capital
humano
GRUPOIII
PASIVOS
Hogares en
etapa
descendente del
ciclo de vida, con
menores
ingresos y menor
capital humano
Capitals Differences Among Groups
Umala
I
II
Ancoraimes
III
Sig
I
II
III
Sig
Financial Capital :
Total household income
Sheep
Cattle
Improved Cattle
Cash income
Remittances
32110
41.3
8.2
50.5
6667.6
745.6
17531.2
24.9
7
23.9
2334
251.11
12226
22.9
5.1
29.2
2673
580.6
*
*
*
*
*
*
15056
24.5
3.8
7141
15.6
2.5
5676
19
2.8
6760
847.5
2977
1162.86
2263.8
642.38
6.5
53
8.5
32.9
3.6
62.4
*
*
7.6
52.5
6.8
35
3.8
59
2.3
5.2
3
4.1
1.3
3
2.8
3.8
1.4
2.2
2.5
3.4
*
*
*
*
0.1
0.8
6
2.4
0.1
0.5
4.8
2.2
0.1
0.5
4.6
1.9
*
Human Capital :
Education HH
Age HH
*
*
Natural Capital :
Alfalfa Ha
Planted Ha
Crops planted #
Varieties of potatoes
*
Dealing with climate events
Umala
I
Climate shocks affected
agricultural production
II
0,92
Ancoraimes
III
Sig
I
II
III
0,71
0,90
1
1
0,99
0,02
0,69
0,45
0,13
0,52
0,19
0,04
0,51
0,42
0,88
0,75
0,13
0,74
0,62
0,26
0,76
0,60
0,25
0,27
0,28
0,19
0,38
0,33
0,19
0,13
0,38
0,58
0,33
0,82
0,79
Coping strategies when crops are lost
Sell sheep and cattle
Use savings
Migration
*
Access to finantial services
Obtained a loan during
the last 5 years
Loan obtained from
relatives and/or friends
*
Sig
Perception of risks by cluster Umala
Climate Risks (0= No risk; 5 = high risk)
Cluster Groups CC
Hail
Frost
Drought
Floods
I
3.63
4.07
4.32
4.67
4.23
II
3.79
3.83
4.41
4.76
4.28
III
3.89
4.03
4.44
4.76
4.37
Market Risks
Cluster Groups
Pests
Low crop
prices
Low livestock
prices
I
3.53
3.63
3.08
II
3.53
3.63
3.22
III
3.81
3.98
3.56
Perception of risks Ancoraimes
Climate Risks (0= No risk; 5 = high risk)
Cluster Groups
CC
Hail
Frost
Drought
Floods
I
3.75
3.8
3.75
3.63
3.88
II
4.08
3.71
3.92
3.86
3.92
III
3.9
3.71
3.9
3.70
4.08
Market Risks
Crop Prices
Pests
Livestock Prices
I
3.63
4.13
3. 5
II
3.85
3.95
3.95
III
3.89
3.93
3.86
Analysis
• Cluster analysis identified three groups in each region –
differences in income are significant between groups and
regions
• All groups experience shocks in at least 70 percent in
Umala; and 99 percent in Ancoraimes
• Greater access to alfalfa, cropping area and diversity of
potato varieties in Umala, while greater diversity of crops
in Ancoriames groups
• Larger amounts and significant differences in ownership of
cattle sheep and camelids among groups in Umala –
greater accumulation of assets
• In Ancoraimes: Remittances play a larger role in total
income; sale of livestock a strategy to cope with shocks
• In Umala: Savings and migration are the major strategies
in coping
Conclusions
• The perceptions of risks varied by region –
consistent with the observed climate trends of the
last 30 years in North and Central Altiplano
• Land fragmentation (low access to land) and
shocks lead to migration
• Coping with shocks –> lack of contingency
markets
• Depletion of assets when high degree of
covariant shocks
• (See also poster by Rees)
Thank you
Questions