Transcript Matt and Abishek proposal

Future climate change scenario
modeling of an invasive weed its
natural enemy
Abhishek Mukherjee
And
Matthew Thom
The Problem
• Introductions of exotic species will continue to
occur in the future.
• Exotic species already established will change
their range.
• Climate change, particularly warming trends in
the US, will allow northward expansion of
invasive species.
• Biological control agents of invasive species may
move northward, but may be limited by other
environmental factors such as freezing or
extreme cold periods.
The Question
• How will invasive species ranges change with
future climate change?
– How much will a weed increase its range
northward in the US?
• How will the distribution of natural enemies
change with future climate change?
– Specifically, will the natural enemy of a specific
weed follow the move northward?
The Players
The invasive pest
The tropical soda apple (TSA),
Solanum viarum
The natural enemy
The tortoise beetle,
Gratiana boliviana
What do we know about TSA?
Current distribution
What about the tortoise beetle?
?
The freezing line, or where it
annually freezes, is considered
to be a northward boundary for
G. boliviana
Predictions
• The tropical soda apple will expand northward as
the US increases in temperature
• The natural enemy tortoise beetle will not move
as far north
• Consequences:
– The current biological control using G. boliviana will
not be effective north of the freezing line
– The tropical soda apple will become a significant
invasive in new areas
Methods
• Use Maxent and IPCC 2007 climate models to
predict the future distribution of the tropical
soda apple and G. boliviana
• Overlay and evaluate future predictions
Data Needs
• Distributional data for TSA
• Distributional data for G. boliviana
• IPCC 2007 climate projections
– Multiple scenarios
• Freezing line data
– Current and predicted change
Expected Outcomes
• The tropical soda apple will extend farther
north
• G. boliviana will not extend as far northward
• Other possibilities?