Transcript The Indus Waters Treaty in light of Climate Change

The Indus Waters Treaty in the
light of Climate Change
Mahe Zehra Husain
The Sub Continent
•In
1947 India and
Pakistan gained
independence.
•The
Indus Basin
was ‘divided’ as was
the province of
Punjab.
•In1971
Bangladesh
broke off from
Pakistan.
Dividing the Indus Basin…
•As a result of the partition of 1947 half of the province of Punjab was left in Pakistan
and the other half went to India. Pre-partition Punjab was called the ‘bread basket’ of
the Indian Sub-Continent and the British had invested in an extensive irrigation system.
This system was cut across during 1947 leaving the canal network in Pakistan and the
head works in India. This gave India control of the canals and made Pakistan uneasy.
•On the 1st of April 1948 India shut the canal gates and cut off water to Pakistan.
About 1.7 million acres of productive land went out of cultivation and almost as many
jobs. The Pakistanis were almost driven to war and the need to reach a formal water
sharing agreement between the two neighbors became crucial.
The Indus River System
•The
River Indus originates
in the vicinity of Lake
Mansarovar in Tibet, flows
through Laddakh in J&K and
enters the Northern Areas
of Pakistan. It then flows
from the north to the south
of Pakistan, merging into
the Arabian Sea near
Karachi, Sindh.
•Total
•The
Length is 3,180 km
Indus also has
tributaries coming in from
Afghanistan but we only
consider the ones shared
between India and Pakistan.
Basin characteristics
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Mean annual rainfall ranges from less than 100mm to
around 750mm below the Himalayan mountains.
Seasonal monsoons occur in July/August.
Area is also subject to severe droughts.
¾ of the water flow occurs between June-September.
Drainage area is 950,000km2
Catchment area of 470,000km2 in four countries.
The head waters of most of the tributaries are in J&K
which is disputed territory.
The Disputed Territory of Jammu&Kashmir
Why the IWT?
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On the 1st of April 1948 India shut the canal gates and cut
off water to Pakistan. About 1.7 million acres of
productive land went out of cultivation and almost as
many jobs. The Pakistanis were almost driven to war and
the need to reach a formal water sharing agreement
between the two neighbors became crucial.
The World Bank helped the two countries to reach an
agreement. It took almost ten years and finally in 1960 the
Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed in Karachi,
Pakistan.
Main Points of the IWT
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Pakistan would receive unrestricted use of the western rivers,
Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, and India would allow for them to flow
unimpeded with a few minor exceptions.
Pakistan built 3 dams, 8 link canals, 3 barrages and 2500 tube wells.
There was a 10 year transition period during which water was
allowed to flow to Pakistan.
India paid $62 million in installments through the 10 year period.
There were also additional provisions for data exchange and
cooperation possibilities.
Established the permanent Indus Commission, with a commissioner
from each country. This was done to promote cooperation as well
as keep dialogue open on water issues.
Mangla and Tarbela Dams
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12th largest dam in the world.
On the Jhelum River
Built during 1961-67.
Mirpur District in Azad Kashmir.
7.25 cubic kilometers capacity.
1000MW installed capacity.
Lost 19% storage capacity due to
siltation.
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Largest earth and rock filled dam in
the world.
On the Indus River.
Built during 1968-74.
Haripur District, NWFP.
13.69 cubic kilometers.
3478MW installed capacity.
Degradation of the Delta
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When the Tarbela Dam was
constructed the stored water was
meant for both Punjab and Sindh,
but the reality is that enough does
not get to Sindh.
As a result the Sindhis don’t have
enough water for agriculture,
enough water is not flowing to the
Indus delta and due to pollution
the fishing industry has taken a
severe downturn.
The Accord of 1991 between the
provinces was supposed to settle
the matter of water sharing but
the allocations set out in that
document have not been followed.
As a result Sindh and Punjab are
not on the best of terms.
The Future…both countries need more WATER!
India
Pakistan
The Indus and Climate Change
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“There is insufficient data to say what will happen to the
Indus,” says David Grey, the World Bank’s senior water advisor
in South Asia. “But we all have very nasty fears that the flows
of the Indus could be severely, severely affected by glacier melt
as a consequence of climate change,” and reduced by perhaps
as much as 50 percent. “Now what does that mean to a
population that lives in a desert [where], without the river,
there would be no life? I don’t know the answer to that
question,” he says. “But we need to be concerned about that.
Deeply, deeply concerned.”
Climate Change in South Asia
Climate Change in South Asia
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Deglaciation will result in the ‘mining’ of the waters
stored in the Himalayas. There will be increased run-off
and silt for a few decades that will be followed by a major
reduction in river flows.
Monsoon rainfall will increase but will be poorly
distributed as additional rainfall will occur in high intensity
storms.
Climate Change in South Asia
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Area affected by flooding will increase as glaciers melt and
rainfall increases.
In the next few decades there will be an opportunity to
make use of the increased water supply to try and
combat the future in which there will be very little.
Recent Headlines
While the Pakistan Army is alert to and fighting the threat posed by
militancy, it remains an “India-centric” institution and that reality
will not change in any significant way until the Kashmir issue and
water disputes are resolved, according to army chief Gen Kayani.
India’s Water Theft
Turmoil from Climate Change poses security risks
So are we looking at water wars in the future?
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Pakistan as the lower riparian is highly dependent on the
waters of the Indus and its tributaries.
India has control of the disputed territory of Kashmir
from where the waters of the Indus and its tributaries
flow to Pakistan.
As we have seen India and Pakistan have a history of
mutual antagonism.
They are pretty evenly poised as far as military might is
concerned, in fact both are nuclear states.
Acclaim for the IWT
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The Indus Waters Treaty is acclaimed by many as one of the
most successful water treaties in the world, a treaty that has
survived three wars between India and Pakistan
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“Without a treaty there would have been five or six wars
between them” says Kishor Upperty, a senior WB lawyer.
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The Baghlihar Dam was built by India on the river Chenab in
J&K.Pakistan objected to the construction of the reservoir
saying that it would impede the flows of a river allocated to
Pakistan under the IWT. After much back and forth a neutral
expert was called in as per the IWT and the matter was
resolved. This was the only time a dispute was settled by a
neutral expert.
What about the future?
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There are dissenting voices in both India and Pakistan and
many are not happy with the treaty.
India is unhappy that 75% of the water has been allocated
to Pakistan
The Pakistanis feel that they should get more water as
they have 90% of the cultivable land.
Many people are advocating an IWT 2 but given the
above points, will it be possible for both countries to
converge toward another IWT?
What can be done? Time is running out?
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There is much cause for
concern given the
burgeoning populations of
both countries, their water
stressed situations and the
coming climate change.
People are talking of joint
management and demand
management for the Indus
Basin.
Is such a future pratical?
Even the IWT just split the
rivers and did not mention
joint management of the
river basin.
Questions
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Does having nuclear weapons help both sides? Is it better
to have balanced power?
Does it make sense to even consider water wars in
today's day and age?
What are the possible solutions that India and Pakistan
can look at?
Demand management/Dams or both?
References
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Wescoat, James L. Halvorson, Sarah J. Mustafa, Daanish (2000) Water Management in
the Indus Basin of Pakistan: A Half Century Perspective.
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Wescoat, James L. (1991) Managing the Indus Basin in Light of Climate Change: Four
Conceptual Approaches.
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Briscoe, John Qamar, Usman (2009) Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry.
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Jaitly, Ashok (2007) South Asian Perspectives on Climate Change and Water Policy
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Wasi, Nausheen (2009) Harnessing the Indus Waters Perspectives from Pakistan
Ali, Saleem H. Tabassum, Shaista Dabelko, Geoffrey (2007) Environmental Conflict and
Cooperation in South Asia: Prospects for Transboundary Dispute Resolution with Shared
Water Resources.
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Iyer, Ramaswamay (2002) Was the Indus Waters Treaty in Trouble?
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Iyer, Ramaswamay South Asian Water Concerns
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Verghese, BG Political Fuss over the Indus, The Tribune 25th May 2005
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Inter Press Service Reduced Himalayan Snowfall could spark water war 19th January
2010
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Wheeler, William The Water’s Edge
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Akram, Agha Ali Indus Basin Water Resources
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Kiani, Khaleeq 3rd Feburary 2010 DAWN Five dams being built in occupied Kashmir
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Dinar et al Bridges over Water