Transcript Climate change simulation introx

Can we get out of this mess together?
 The world’s economy is intimately linked with all aspects of
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petrochemical use
Without oil our global society will crumble
We have other energy alternatives but none in isolation can
provide the massive amount of energy provided by oil
Nearly all aspects of manufacturing rely on oil for energy
AND raw materials
Climate Change is possibly the greatest environmental
threat that human society has ever encountered
Reducing oil consumption will ensure that we have more
time figure out how to live in a world without Oil
The UN Climate Change Conference in Denmark (Dec
2009) may be the place where we finally start working
together
 When it comes to resources of any kind human society
has failed miserably at sustainably sharing between 2
or more users
 The “Tragedy of the Commons” a dilemma in which
multiple individuals acting independently and solely
and rationally consulting their own self-interest will
ultimately destroy a shared limited resource even
when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long term
interest for this to happen
 Are we not above this as a modern society?
 Our Current international agreement with respect to
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Climate Change is the Kyoto Protocol
At its core the Kyoto Protocol had great intentions:
Reduce Our Global Emissions of CO2
In practice the agreement had little clout to penalize
countries who did not or could not fulfill their obligations
Kyoto expires in 2012
COP 15 in Copenhagen Denmark is our next chance to get
this right
The big question is: IS IT POSSIBLE TO MAKE ALL
NATIONS COPPERATE AND BE ACCOUNTABLE?
Sound easy? Now its time for you to give it a try……
 Great things are possible when groups of people work
together to achieve a common goal
 WE DO have the technology and capacity to begin
fighting climate change NOW
 However for any action to work it must have the
support and commitment of our entire world’s
population.
 Key Questions:
 What needs to be in place to ensure cooperation?
 What might lead to sustained cooperation?
 What might lead to one or more Nations declining to
participate in a new agreement on Climate Change?
Time to play a game:
 Find a Partner
 Two symbols:
 Bunny (peace sign)
 Snake (two finger claw)
Point Allocations:
Snake to Bunny = 3 points to snake
Bunny to Snake = 0 points to bunny
Snake to Snake = o points to snake
Bunny to Bunny = 2 points each bunny
 Game Theory
 Two prisoners arrested and taken in for questioning
 Each prisoner told that if they rat out their friend they
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will be set free
If one prisoner rats out their friend, he (the friend) will
be sent to prison for 10 years
If neither player talks each will only receive a short 6
month sentence
If both talk each will receive a 5 year sentence
There is ALWAYS a choice to make……….
 The hoarding of consumer goods
 The news of a shortage promotes people stockpiling the item
and creates a shortage…
 The deterioration of public hallways
 Everyone prefers that someone else cleans up a public area
 However each neighbor's free-riding discourages others from
cleaning
 In the end no one wants to clean up and the situation gets
worse and worse
 Aggressive Driving
 As more people speed it becomes harder and harder for
others to drive safely at the speed limit
 New regulations outlining CO2 emission reduction has
just been established at the Copenhagen Climate
Change Conference.
 As a representative of your country you have been
asked to participate in a CO2 reduction panel on a
yearly basis.
 Each year your country and 23 others will sit down to
see how your individual reductions in CO2 has either
met or not met your obligation as agreed in
Copenhagen
 You get the most benefit from being the only country
not to cooperate
 You get the least benefit from being the only
cooperator
 The more countries that cooperate the greater the
collective benefit
 If no countries cooperate their will be great but
random consequences to various countries. Climate
Change does not discriminate……
 24 nations pledged 38 units of emission reductions per
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year
United States = 8 units
Japan = 5 Units
Germany = 3 Units
Russia = 2 Units
20 other Countries = 1 Unit each
 Contains confidential instructions on how you the
ambassador are to represent the interest of your
Nation
 Contains “table A” a table of costs associated with
different outcomes.
 Your goal is to minimize your countries losses and
maximize their gains
 There WILL be a winner at the end of 10-12 rounds
 In each round you choose to either fulfill your
commitment.
 Smaller countries can pledge 0 or 1 unit of reduction
 Larger countries can pledge to reduce all of their
commitment or a fraction of their total commitment
 The format in between rounds is completely
decentralized. You may meet with other individual
countries, form small or large Coalitions, you may
make speeches…. But no one has to listen!
 Before the first round their will be 10 minutes of
discussion. There will be 5 minutes between each
additional round while scores are recorded/calculated
 Review your confidential package carefully
 Develop an initial strategy with which you want to
approach this simulation (make sure to follow any
roles outlined in your confidential package)
 You may approach other countries and try to make
coalitions and agreements before we start
 Remember their WILL be a winner to this simulation
who will receive a special PRIZE.