Transcript Region-9-HVA-Overview.ppsx

Region 9 Threats and
Hazards…..what you need to
know
Darrell Ruby
Providence Health Care & St. Luke’s Rehab Institute
Emergency Manager
What is the significance of
th
Jan 26 ?
317th anniversary of the Great Cascadia
Earthquake of 1700
Why knowing our
threats/hazards is important?
• Prioritize planning
• All Hazard Planning
• To be able to continue delivery
of healthcare services during a
disaster or emergency situation.
• Responsibility to community and
partners.
• Know what to do in advance for
your job and at home.
Potential Hazards & Risks
Hazards
• Severe Weather
• Earthquake
• Wildland Fire
• Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT)
• Active Shooter
Risks
• Large crowds, public gathers
• Schools, hospitals
• Government buildings
Regional Disaster Du jour…..
Regional Threat/Risk Assessment and Vulnerability
Analysis Report



identified 17 natural and technological/man made hazards
across the region
reviewed and integrated existing plans (CEMP, HMP, HIVA,
CWPP, etc.)
17 hazards distributed across 4 risk levels
–
severe, high, moderate, low
Final Regional Hazards
Natural Hazards
# Counties
Technological/Manmade
Hazards
# Counties
Fire – Wildland
10
HAZMAT
10
Flood (river, flash)
10
Civil Disturbance/Unrest
9
Drought
8
Fire – Urban/Structural
9
Earthquake
8
Terrorism
9
Severe Local Weather
(T-storm/Tornado/Windstorm)
7
Dam Failure
8
Volcano (Ash Fall)
7
Pipeline
4
Infectious
Disease/Epidemic/Pandemic
6
Transportation
4
Landslide
5
Columbia Generating Station
3
Winter Storm
(Snow/Ice Storm/Severe Cold)
5
Probability of Future Occurrence
Natural Hazards
Probability
Technological/Manmade
Hazards
Probability
Fire – Wildland
Annually (A)
Fire – Urban/Structural
Annually (A)
Flood (river, flash)
Annually (A)
HAZMAT
1-10 yrs (B)
Severe Local Weather
(T-storm/Tornado/Windstorm)
Annually (A)
Transportation
1-10 yrs (B)
Winter Storm
(Snow/Ice Storm/Severe Cold)
Annually (A)
Pipeline
10-50 yrs (C)
Drought
1-10 yrs (B)
Dam Failure
10-50 yrs (C)
Landslide
1-10 yrs (B)
Civil Disturbance/Unrest
10-50 yrs (C)
Infectious
Disease/Epidemic/Pandemic
10-50 yrs (C)
Terrorism
10-50 yrs (C)
Earthquake
10-50 yrs (C)
Columbia Generating Station
> 50 yrs (D)
Volcano (Ash Fall)
10-50 yrs (C)
Threat Risk Matrix
Columbia Generating
Station
D
Increasing Probability
C
Infectious Disease Outbreak
 Terrorism
 Earthquake
 Volcano (Ash Fall)
 Dam Failure
Civil Disturbance/Unrest
B
 Drought
 Transportation
 Hazardous Materials
 Pipeline
• Fire – Wildland
 Flood
Severe Weather
Fire – Urban/ Structural
Winter Storm
A
1
2
Landslide
3
4
Increasing Consequence Severity
Probability
Relative Risk
Severity
Injuries/Fatalities
Economic Losses
Property Losses
Severe
A – High
Annually
1 - Catastrophic
>1,000
> $145 mil
> $25 mil
High
B – Moderate
1-10 years
2 - Critical
50 - 100
$72 mil - $145 mil
$5 mil - $25 mil
Moderate
C – Low
10 - 50 years
3 – Moderate
100 – 1,000
$14 mil - $72 mil
$2.5 mil - $5 mil
Low
D – Rare
> 50 years
4 – Low
< 50
< $14 mil
< $2.5 mil
Who does HVA’s, HIVA’s, THIRA’s, TRA’s?
• Jurisdictions (County) – HIVA (THIRA?)
• Region’s
• State’s
• Hospitals
• And now required of 17 Suppliers/Providers identified by the new
CMS Rule on Emergency Preparedness
** Collaborate with your partners
HVA Resource Center
www.calhospitalprepare.org/hazard-vulnerability-analysis
Questions or Comments?
“Preparedness, when properly pursued, is a way of life, not a sudden, spectacular program.”
Spencer W. Kimball, 1976
Back ups
UNCLASSIFIED
Ring of Fire
The Ring of Fire accounts
for 90% of all earthquakes,
and 81% of the world’s
largest earthquakes
Subduction zones are
shown in red
The CSZ fault line is part of
the Ring of Fire
The CSZ is the only
significant fault line on the
Ring of Fire without a
major quake in the last 50
years (see blue stars)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Cascadia Subduction Zone
The CSZ runs 800 miles from Southern British Columbia to
Northern California, and lies 50 to 80 miles off the Pacific
Coast
The heavy Juan de Fuca plate is sliding under the lighter
North American plate
A magnitude 9.0 CSZ earthquake has occurred every 300 to
500 years (USGS – 400-600 years). The last CSZ earthquake
occurred in the year 1700 (January 26).
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
FEMA & HITRAC Modeling
• FEMA commissioned a multi year *HITRAC study and produced the
Region X Response Plan (Published December 2013)
The HITRAC study modeling stops at the
Cascade Crest. There are no modeled
effects for East of the Cascades.
• Modeling Factors
• February 6, 9:41am PST, weekday
• Complete rupture of the CSZ fault line
• Epicenter 60 miles off Oregon coast, 120 miles West of Eugene
• M9.0 earthquake, with ground shaking up to 5 minutes
• Tsunami wave heights 20 to 80 feet
• Aftershocks of M7.0 or greater
• Additional tsunamis caused by aftershocks
Note: Damage caused by aftershocks, follow on tsunamis, and secondary effects is not
included in damage estimates. Model ran a data set that was the best available in Oct 2012
*HITRAC – Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
Infrastructure-intelligence fusion center.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Secondary Effects
• Landslides & Avalanches
• Gas leaks
• Fires
• Flooding
• Hazardous materials releases
• Low level contamination in inundation area
• Lack of food, water, etc.
• Disease
Note: FEMA modeling data (HITRAC study) does not include
deaths or injuries from secondary effects
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Hospitals
These are general locations and forecast status of the
known Hospitals.
There are 112 Hospitals in the affected area.
36% suffer severe damage, are unusable, and will
likely be completely offline.
17% suffer moderate damage and are only assumed
capable of 50% normal capacity.
Total reduction is assumed to be 45% of total
hospital capacity.
47% suffer slight damage and are able to continue to
operate at capacity.
The facilities nearer to the epicenter suffer most
significant damage resulting in virtually no Hospital
capacity west of the I5 corridor.
These numbers discuss STRUCTURAL capacity, not patient
capacity, which is further reduced due to lack of electricity,
potable water, sanitation, etc.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Planning Factors (FEMA)
Washington
Total
Land Area (Sq. Miles)
71,303
Miles of Pacific Coastline
157
Population
6,894,121
Population exposed to tsunami
50,190
Residential buildings damaged
(Slight to complete damage)
Short term human sheltering
requirements
Short term pet sheltering
requirements
Mass feeding and hydration
requirements (People)
Mass feeding and hydration
requirements (Pets)
410,127
254,357
1,274,327
777,340
8,440
Injuries
12,114
Building debris (Cubic Yards)
Does not include Strait of Juan de Fuca or shores of Puget Sound.
507,701
Deaths
Hospital patient evacuation
requirements
Nursing home patient evacuation
requirements
Notes
15,501
65,249
Projection accounts for initial earthquake and tsunami, does not account for exposure,
disease, dehydration, starvation, or follow on tsunami's and aftershocks.
Evacuation requirements based on projected numbers of facilities determined to be
unusable. Does not account for evacuation to create room for newly injured.
13,174,243
UNCLASSIFIED