Transcript RUN Modelling the Dynamics of HIV/AIDS Epidemics in a - C-CAMP

Modelling the Dynamics of
HIV/AIDS Epidemics in a
Heterosexual Transmission;
focus on Nigerian Situation
By
AKPA, ONOJA MATTHEW
And
OYEJOLA, BENJAMINE
AGBOOLA
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Introduction:
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A clear understanding of the dynamics as
well as the trajectory of the epidemic of any
infectious disease is critical to its
management and policy formulation that will
set a premise for further action regarding the
epidemic.
Substantive works have been published on
the epidemic modeling of certain infectious
diseases in time and places without much
addressing the situations in Nigeria.
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Some Basic Assumptions:

The AIDS compartment in each group represent a state where the
infected person manifest overt symptoms of the disease and at such
a stage, he/she can no longer contribute to HIV infection, as no body
sexually involved with an individual that is obviously AIDS.
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Infected individuals (who have not developed AIDS) and the
susceptible are only distinguishable in principle; in act, those
infected in this definition have the same behavioral changes as the
susceptible and are involved in sexual activities as the susceptible.
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Immigration of both the infected and the susceptible are possible at
a constant rate, and are dependent on the groups. See table 2 for
details.
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A Female sex worker may become married if and only if she first
becomes an unmarried single.
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Assumptions Continues:
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Natural death occurs in every compartments of the
group, except in an individual that is AIDS (where for
the sake of our model), any death of the AIDS
individual was attributable to AIDS.
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There is a strong heterosexual network between
members of the different groups, safe with an AIDS
individual.
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Immigration of the AIDS as well as marriage with the
AIDS individuals is not possible.
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The Transmission Dynamics of
HIV/AIDS in Nigeria:
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