Transcript WNND County Level Incidence per Million, United States, 2004

Structure of ArboNET and summary of West
Nile Virus Activity
The Arbonet Team
Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases Centers for
Disease Control & Prevention
Fort Collins, Colorado
Chet Moore
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO
ArboNET Database
• Keep it simple – avoid complex and multi-layered data entry
screens whenever possible
• Build data entry screens to work the way data entry clerks
actually enter the data
• Where possible, build compatibility with other data collection
systems (e.g., NEDSS, etc.)
“Users don’t know what they really want, but they know for certain what they don’t want."
Manubay’s Laws for Programmers
• Use drop-down lists, auto-fill and other time savers whenever
possible (automatically calculate totals, statistics, etc.)
• Build error checking routines into the software
• Use lists to prevent spelling errors and similar problems
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence."
Hanlon's Razor
Historical Perspective
Progression of West Nile Virus Activity in
the United States, 1999-2005
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
WNV Surveillance Totals, US, 1999-2005*
Category
No. Tested**
No. Positive
No. States
Mosquito
12.8 million
36,288
48†
Dead bird
128,486
53,381
48†
Veterinary
Unavailable
23,447
47‡
Human
Unavailable
19,706
46 †
Sentinel
chicken/
horse
Unavailable
7,154
30‡
* Reported as of 5/5/2006
** Excludes 1999
† Plus DC
‡ Plus Puerto Rico
Observed & Predicted WNV Events, 2000
Sentinel wild bird,
Suffolk
Oc. japonicus,
Westchester;
Cx. pipiens,
Richmond
Horse,
Richmond
Sentinel
Chicken,
Westchester
Human,
Richmond
Crow,
Suffolk
Predicted
Human
Observed
Crow,
Richmond
Horse
Sentinels
Mosquito
Crow
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Innovative Vector Control Consortium
(IVCC)
Dengue Decision Support System
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
Colorado State University
University of California, Davis
South African Medical Research Council
Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
A possible scheme of software and data organization for
the Dengue Decision Support System (DDSS)
End users
(Field sites,
national
programs)
Low-cost software
(SIG Epi)
•Database
•GIS
•Statistics
Web server
(Central site; CSU)
Other resources
Dengue databases
Ae. aegypti density
• Reprint database
Map server/GIS
Insecticide resistance
• Guidelines & SOP’s
DEN seroprevalence
• Links to other sites
Other data sets
Spatial data layers
Streets/roads
Dengue
model
Hydrology
Land use/land cover
Other data layers
Spatial analysis
software (ArcGIS,
SIG Epi, R)
Non-spatial
statistics
software
(R)
WNND County Level Incidence per Million,
United States, 2002
Incidence per million
.01-9.99
10-99.99
>=100
Any WNV Activity
WNND County Level Incidence per Million,
United States, 2003
Incidence per million
.01-9.99
10-99.99
>=100
Any WNV Activity
WNND County Level Incidence per Million,
United States, 2004
Incidence per million
.01-9.99
10-99.99
>=100
Any WNV Activity
WNND County Level Incidence per Million,
United States, 2005*
Incidence per million
.01-9.99
•
10-99.99
Reported as of 5/5/2006
>=100
Any WNV Activity
Human WNV Disease Cases, by Age Group and
Clinical Category, United States, 2005*
Proportion of disease cases (%)
30
WNND
WNF
20
10
0
0-9
-19
10
-29
20
-39
30
-49
40
-59
50
Age group (yr)
* Reported as of 5/5/2006
-69
60
-79
70
-89
80
-99
90
Incidence per 100,000
West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease cases
by age group and gender, 1999-2005*
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Male
Incidence
Female
Incidence
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
Age Group (yr)
* Reported as of 5/5/2006
70-79
80-89
90-99
Proportion of all fatalities (%)
Age Distribution of Fatal Human WNND Cases,
United States, 2005*
40
30
20
10
0
9
0-
19
10
29
20
39
30
49
40
59
50
69
60
Age group (yr)
* Reported as of 5/5/2006
79
70
89
80
99
90
Dengue Decision Support System (DDSS)
Dengue
Information
System (DIS):
Dengue
Resource
Library (DRL):
• GIS data
• Data-base for
repository
• Dengue
surveillance
• Mosquito
surveillance
• Insecticide
Dengue
Models (DM):
• Mosquito
simulation
Dengue
Decision
Guide (DDG):
• Guidelines for
Aedes aegypti
model
usage of web-
insecticide
(CIMSiM)
based DDSS
resistance
• Dengue /
• Dengue
simulation
Ae. aegypti
model
pdf library
(DENSiM)
resistance
• Web-links to Ae.
monitoring
aegypti / dengue
data-bases
IVCC-DDSS web-page
• Cost analyses
• Vector control
guidelines
• Decision tree
for dengue
management