Transcript PROGRESS REPORT: FOOD SAFETY

PROGRESS REPORT:
FOOD SAFETY
Dr Andrew Wadge
Director of Food Safety
Public Health Impact
• In 2006 between
500 and 600 people
died as a direct
result of something
they ate – mostly
due to food
poisoning
CJD 5
Food
poisoning
500
Allergies
5-10
Choking
accidents
200
Economic Impact - Costs
Year
Economic Costs (2007 Q1 Constant Prices - £ millions)
NHS
Lost earnings
and other
expenses
Pain and Suffering
Total Cost of IFD
(England and
Wales)
2000
36
167
1,541
1,744
2001
*
*
*
*
2002
*
*
*
*
2003
25
111
1,232
1,368
2004
30
125
1,505
1,660
2005
26
111
1,274
1,411
2006
28
125
1,332
1,484
Economic Impact - Savings
Savings with respect to 2000 baseline (2007 Q1 Prices - £millions)
Year
NHS
Lost earnings
and other
expenses
Pain and Suffering
Total Cost of IFD
(England and
Wales)
2001
*
*
*
*
2002
*
*
*
*
2003
11
57
309
376
2004
6
42
37
85
2005
10
57
267
333
2006
8
43
209
260
Cumulative
(2001-06)
34
198
822
1,055
Risk Matrix – relative risk of
pathogens, 2005
Pathogens
Deaths
Hospitalisations
All Cases
Total
Number
Rank
Total
Number
Rank
Total
Number
Rank
Campylobacter
70
3rd
13,930
1st
295,500
1st
VTEC O157
20
400
3rd
1,100
3rd
Listeria
130
1st
380
Salmonella
100
2nd
1,220
400
2nd
33,400
2nd
Geographical Differences in
Major Pathogens within UK
Rates of cases (per 1,000,000 of population) - 2005
Pathogen
England
Scotland
Wales
Campylobacter
5,580
5,806
5,393
Salmonella
637
625
495
VTEC O157
17
35
67
Listeria
7
11
7
Statistically significant difference between
countries indicated by differing colours
Source: HPA & HPS data analysed in work for FBD risk matrix (FSA)
Within-year trends for cases of
Campylobacter: England & Wales –
3.5%
3.0%
Females
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
data from 1992-2006
01
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ct
01
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ov
01
-D
ec
ep
01
-S
ug
01
-A
l
01
-Ju
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01
-Ju
ay
01
-M
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01
-A
ar
01
-M
eb
01
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0.0%
01
-Ja
% of annual cases in week
Males
Source:
HPA
Late-spring increase in
Campylobacter
• Sharp increase in cases ~mid-May, peak in
June
• Not caused solely by increasing temperature
• Possible reasons:
– Bird-pecked milk†
– Barbequed food†
– Flies hatching
†Supporting
2000-2003.
evidence in: Campylobacter Sentinel Surveillance Scheme
Birthdays increase your risk of
Campylobacter!
~25% higher
Weeks either side
of birthday
~ constant rest of
year
Source: Campylobacter Sentinel Surveillance Scheme 2000-3
instance of
Campylobacter
around birthday
(± 1 week )
Carcass and Meat Pathogen Levels
Salmonella
– Carcasses samples testing +ve (1999 → 2003): Cattle↑ Sheep↑ Pig→
– Level in retail chickens ?
– Level in UK Eggs ↓ (1995/6 → 2003)
Campylobacter
– Carcasses samples testing +ve (1999 → 2003): Cattle↑ Sheep↑ Pig↓
– Level in retail chickens ?
Pathogen levels in the Slaughterhouse
No. cases,
indexed (Eng &
Wales)
– On carcasses (2002 → 2005): Cattle↓ Sheep↓ Pig↓
– On environmental surfaces ↓ (2002 → 2005)
Campylobacter (–17.5%)
110
100
90
80
70
Salmonella (–15.7%)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Estimated impact by food group of indigenous
food borne disease – top 7 foods (1996 – 2000)
Values = % total cases in category
All
Cases
GP
cases
Hospital
cases
Deaths
Complex foods†
26%
22%
19%
26%
Chicken
23%
28%
41%
21%
Beef
7%
8%
2%
10%
Eggs
6%
4%
3%
7%
Milk
6%
9%
17%
5%
Turkey
5%
5%
2%
7%
Other red meat
4%
3%
2%
5%
Shellfish
4%
3%
1%
2%
†Complex foods: dishes consisting of ingredients of various food
types in which the precise source of infection was not verified.
They tend to contain chicken or eggs and consequently follow a
similar pattern to these food types.
Source: Adak et al. (2005): Emerging Infectious Diseases 11 (3), 365-372.
Summary – Life Style Choices
Factor
% change
Years of Comparison
Chicken (purchased)
+8.0%
2000 → 2006
Beef & Veal (purchased)
+6.4%
2000 → 2006
Eggs (purchased)
–0.1%
2000 → 2006
Milk (purchased)
–6.3%
2000 → 2006
Shellfish (purchased)
+12%
2001/2 → 2005/6
Turkey
+21%
2000 → 2006
Meals eaten out (total)
+2.2%
2001 → 2005
Meals eaten out (profit)
+3.7%
2001 → 2005
Take-away (weight purchased)
+18%
2001/2 → 2004/5
Trips abroad (all destinations)
+17%
2000 → 2005
Trips abroad (Spain)
+24%
2000 → 2005
Conclusion: In general, lifestyle choices have a higher risk
of food borne disease associated with them (over the time
period of the Food borne Disease Strategy)
Impact of Interventions
Progress 19.2% cut in food-borne diseases 2000-05
– 1.5 million cases
– 38,000 hospital bed days
– £750m to society as a whole
How Reduce contamination of meat and eggs in the food supply chain
– on-farm
- in slaughterhouses
- in retail and distribution
- in the home:
Action taken by industry has reduced the level of Salmonella
contamination of chicken from 37% in 1993/94 to less than 6% in 2001;
An estimated 70% of chickens sold are contaminated with
Campylobacter
Historical & Future Drivers
• Changing Population:
– People living longer
– Immigration
• Personal Affluence:
– Alters diet
– Warmer houses in winter, cooler in summer
• Travel
– Overseas
– To the supermarket – bringing home frozen foods
• Lifestyle
– Time available for preparation
– Choices
Source: Institute of Grocery Distribution
Historical & Future Drivers
• Globalisation
–
–
–
–
International sourcing of foods
Large-scale operations
Consolidation and centralisation of food production
Increased automation of food production
• Product formulation
– Changes in levels of preservatives, etc.
– Drive to reduce salt (FSA)
• EU Hygiene Legislation
Source: Institute of Grocery Distribution
Potential Future Drivers
• Technology:
–
–
–
–
–
Genetic modification
Sensors ensure correct storage/ heating
New packing materials
Household stock management: use of Artificial Intelligence
Cooking instructions fed into microwave directly
• Sustainability
– drive to reduce waste => thinner packaging materials
– drive to use left-overs, use up all food
Source: Institute of Grocery Distribution
Climate Change
• ~2.5-3ºC increase in UK mean temperature
by 2100
• Increased temperature could lead to:
– more rapid multiplication of micro-organisms throughout the food
chain
– change in diet
– more barbecues
• Regression analysis indicates a 1ºC temp.
rise would increase:
– all food borne disease by ~5% (Bentham, 1997)
– Salmonella in the UK by ~12% (Kovats et al., 2004)
• More extreme weather events
Source: Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK (2007)
Dept. Health and HPA