Transcript World Population Size

Life Expectancy-1930
Life Expectancy-1960
Life Expectancy-1990
Factors Affecting Human
Population Size
Current Status
• World Population Size: 6.8 billion
• World Growth Rate: 1.4%, ~84 million/year
• U.S. Population Size: 273.6 million
6.1 billion people are breeding exponentially.
The process of fulfilling their needs and wants is
stripping Earth of its biotic capacity to produce life.
Birth & Death Rates
*
Birth and death rates are
coming down, but death rates
have fallen more sharply than
birth rates. Hence more birth
than death occur.
Population Growth
World’s population will
double in 52 years
Population projections by regions (1999 – 2025)
Over 95% of this increase
will take place in “Developing
Countries”
Total fertility rates in 2000
Total fertility rates for the US
Infant Mortality Rates
3. Human Carrying Capacity
Can the world/biosphere provide an adequate standard
for the increasing population or are we at the limit?
Computer Models
• The Limits to
Growth (1972)
predicted
economic &
environmental
collapse
U.S.: 278 million people
• fertility near
replacement
rate;
• continued
population
increase
because of
immigration.
India: 1 billion
=1/5 of world’s population
• 1952 first
national family
planning
program;
• program
disappointing;
• fertility still 3.5.
China: 1.3 billion people
=1/5 of world’s population
• since 1970 efforts to
better feed people &
control population
growth;
• strict population
control measures
prevent couples from
having more than
one child;
• although considered
coercive, the policy is
significantly slowing
population growth.
How to Reduce Population Growth?
• improve access to family planning & reproductive
health care;
• improve heath care for infants, children, &
pregnant women;
• improve equality between men & women;
• increase access to education, especially for
girls;
• increase the involvement of men in child rearing &
family planning;
• reduce poverty;
• reduce & eliminate unsustainable patterns of
production & consumption.
Current Situation
• Each year nearly 11 million children die before
the age of five,30,000 every day,largely from
preventable causes.
• 50% of these deaths occur in only six countries;
90% of these deaths occur in 42 of 192
countries.
• 41% of these deaths occur in Africa, which has
only 10 % of the world’s under-five population.
~11 Million Children Die/year
(70% From 5 Major Causes)
Malaria
7%
Other
31%
ARI
29%
Malnutrition
56%
Measles
8%
Birth Trauma
Neonatal Deaths
Tetanus
Fever
Low Birth Weight
Diarrhea
25%
Causes of Death in the World
Age<5 yrs
% of Deaths
Malaria
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Injuries
Mealses
Non Communic.
Disease
Other
Perinatal
Acute Resp.
Infections
Diarrhea
COD
Main Causes of Death
Disease or Condition
Proportion of Underfive Deaths
Neonatal Illnesses
33%
Diarrhea
22%
Pneumonia
21%
Malaria
9%
AIDS
3%
Measles
1%
Other
9%
Source: The Lancet.
Vol.361, June 28, 2003
Malnutrition is an underlying cause of 53% of all child
deaths
Under-Five Mortality Rate:
Regional and Global Averages
Deaths per 1,000 Live Births
300
250
Summit Goal
200
Global
150
Latin America and
Caribbean
Asia Near East
100
Africa
50
Source: UNICEF Times
Series Estimates, 2000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
1995
1998
2000
Neonatal Mortality Relative to
Infant Mortality
Deaths per 1,000 Live Births
110
100
90
80
70
60
Post-Neonatal Deaths
50
Neonatal Deaths
40
30
20
Source: Demographic
Health Surveys
10
0
Bangladesh
(1999/2000)
Ethiopia (2000)
Haiti (2000)
Country
India (1998/99)
Nigeria (2003)
Infectious Diseases
• Tuberculosis prevention, control &
treatment
• Malaria prevention, control & treatment
• Anti-microbial resistance
• Local capacity for surveillance and response
Gaps in Child Survival
• Gaps in child mortality are increasing between rich and
poor countries.
• Mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa average 175 per
1,000, compared to 6 per 1000 in industrialized
countries.
• Within countries, gaps in mortality rates between rich
and poor children are also increasing.
Deaths per 1,000 Live Births
Urban/Rural Under-five
Mortality Rates by Country
250
200
150
Urban
Rural
100
50
Source: Demographic
Health Surveys
0
Bolivia
Cambodia
Ethiopia
India
(1998)
(2000)
(2000)
(1998/99)
Country
Nepal (2001)
Zambia
(2001/02)
We Know What Works
• Six million children each year could be saved
with basic, cost-effective measures such as:
vaccines, antibiotics, insecticide-treated bed
nets, breastfeeding, micronutrients, and health
and nutrition education.
• We know what it takes to improve child health
but increased resources are needed to ensure all
children have access to these proven measures.
Child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 1997
Estimated impact of AIDS on
under-5 child mortality rates
DALYs
Disability Adjusted Life –Years
QALY= Quality Adjusted Life-Years
Both are attempts to express burden
of disease in a single number
•
•
•
•
•
Most significant public health
achievements in the U.S. in the
th Century
20
Vaccination
Motor-vehicle safety
Safer workplaces
Control of infectious diseases
Decline in deaths from coronary heart disease and
stroke
• Healthier mothers and babies
• Recognition of tobacco as the major killer and
cause of disease
20th Century Environmental
Health Events
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1906 Pure Food and Drug Act
1918 Flu Epidemic
1948 Donora PA. Air Pollution Episode
1952 London England Air Poll. Episode
1958 Mercury Poisoning Minamata Bay
1962 Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring”
1970 Earth Day-Sen. Gaylord Nelson
20th Century Environmental
Health Events Cont.
• 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act, EPA, OSHA Created
• 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act,
Consumer Product Safety Act
• 1974 Superfund Act
• 1975 Safe Drinking Water Act
• 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
– Toxic Substances Control Act
• 1979 Three Mile Island
• 1984 Bhopal India
• 1986 Chernobyl