Transcript Leitch Review – Keith Mander

“Prosperity
for all in the
global
economy –
world class
skills”
CPHC
Council of Professors and
Heads of Computing
Leitch Review of Skills
Professor Keith Mander
University of Kent
CPHC Conference
Birmingham, April 2007
(Slides from DfES
presentation)
www.cphc.ac.uk
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Review’s remit
• 2004: Sandy Leitch commissioned to undertake review to:
“Identify the UK’s optimal skills mix in 2020 to
maximise economic growth, productivity and social justice,
and to consider the policy implications of achieving the
level of change required.”
• December 2005: Leitch interim report published
• Budget 2006: Leitch asked also to consider how to deliver
better integration of employment and skills services at local
level
• Review UK wide: some recommendations common to UK,
others specific to England
• Main focus post-19. But emphasises importance of 14-19
reforms
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Current UK skills profile
• Despite recent improvements, strong stable economy, and
record employment rate, UK has skills deficits:
• 7 million adults lack functional numeracy and 5 million
lack functional literacy
• In OECD 30, UK ranks:
• 17th for low skills
• 20th for intermediate skills
• 11th for high skills
• 35% of working age population do not have full Level 2
• 36% qualified to intermediate (level 2-3), compared to
50%+ in Germany and New Zealand
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…and consequent shortfalls in competitive skills
base
• Even if all current targets delivered, projections show UK
wouldn't improve much on international position by 2020:
• Demographic change - 70% of the working age population
in 2020 are already over 16, and half is over 25
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Recommended world class ambition and targets
• UK should commit to becoming a world leader in skills by
2020, benchmarked against the upper quartile of the
OECD.
• Recommended targets to deliver this ambition:
• 95% of adults to achieve functional literacy and numeracy, up from
85% and 79% respectively in 2005.
• Over 90% of adults qualified to at least Level 2, up from 69% in
2005; with commitment to achieve 95% as soon as possible.
• Shift balance of intermediate skills from Level 2 to Level 3; 1.9
million additional L3s (4 million total) to 2020, increase
Apprentices to 500,000
• Over 40% of adults qualified to Level 4 and above, up from 29% in
2005. HE targets broadened to cover whole workforce
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“Something for something”
• Overall recommendations designed to strengthen
employer voice and influence
• Government should invest more, and act to secure
demand-led supply
• In return, employers should voluntarily commit to train all
employees to first full Level 2 - the “pledge”
• If improvement rate is insufficient by 2010, introduce
statutory entitlement to workplace training at Level 2 in
consultation with employers and unions
• Increased employer investment at Levels 3 and 4 in
workplace
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Implications for HE
• 40% of adults qualified to level 4 or above (up from 29%)
• Much of this in the workplace
• Individuals and employers to ‘bear the bulk of the
additional cost’
• Delivery through a demand-led funding route like Train to
Gain
• SSCs possibly approving FDs
• ‘a rebalancing of the priorities of HEIs to make available
relevant, flexible and responsive provision that meets the
high skills needs of employers and their staff’
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Some numbers
• Number of working-age adults with level 4 qualifications: 9.8M,
of whom 2.3M will have retired by 2020
• New people needing to be qualified at level 4 by 2020 to meet
40% target for working-age adults: 8.7M
• UK domiciled students achieving level 4 in 2005: 397K
• Number of years to reach 2020 target at 2005 rate: 22
• Shortfall over 15 years: 2.7M people
• Cost of bridging this shortfall (assume in one year)
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Public (£5k per student): £13.7B
Loan (£3k per student): £8.2B
Private (£7k per student): £19.2B
Total (£15k per student): £41.1B
• Projected cost of staging London Olympics: £9.3B
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