Transcript Experimental Probability

Experimental
vs. Theoretical
Probability
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Objectives: 4.04 - Determine and compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities for
simple and compound events.
Essential Questions:
(1) How do we determine and compare
experimental
and
theoretical
probabilities for simple and compound
events?
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Theoretical Probability:
- The probability we find on paper.
- It is how a probability of an event
“should” happen.
Experimental Probability:
- Experimental probability refers to the
probability of an event occurring when an
experiment was conducted.
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Theoretical Probability:
number of favorable outcomes
Theoretical Probability= number of possible outcomes
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Experimental Probability:
number of event occurrences
Experimental Probability=
Total number of trials
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 1: Roll a dice.
What is the theoretical probability of rolling
a 4?
# favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes
1
6
The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 1 Continued: Roll a dice.
What is the experimental probability of
rolling a 4?
# event occurrences
Total # of trials
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 2: Coins.
What is the theoretical probability of
flipping a tail?
# favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes
1
2
The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 2 or .5 or
50%
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Example 2 Continued: Coins.
What is the experimental probability of
flipping a tail?
# favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Guided Practice: Cards
Card Trick:
- Each student in the group will pick a card from the deck, shuffle
the cards and pick another card five times. The student will pick
a total of five cards. To determine experimental probability, find
the desired outcome such as number of face cards, over the total
numbers of cards drawn.
- After all the experiments are performed and experimental
probabilities are found, compare them to the theoretical
probabilities of each experiment. You may determine how close
the two are as fractions, decimals, and percents.
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Summary:
- Theoretical Probability is the how an
outcome “should” happen, in theory.
- Experimental probability refers to the
probability of an event occurring when an
experiment was conducted.
Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Homework: